Rjay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I consider 2001-2002 the winter of hell 2011-2012 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm going all in this system and we should get 6-12 for nyc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I consider 2001-2002 the winter of hell There have been some very bad winters in nyc. This is not one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm going all in this system and we should get 6-12 for nyc! From your mouth to gods ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm going all in this system and we should get 6-12 for nyc! Of course you are lol. I do like this system as well but remain objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Of course you are lol. I do like this system as well but remain objective. I call it being realistic. Go with the trends and don't bet against the house. Of course, every once in a while, betting against the house *does* pay off . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A winter of teases doesn't make it a winter from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I call it being realistic. Go with the trends and don't bet against the house. Of course, every once in a while, betting against the house *does* pay off . . .i just have a great feeling about this one. And I swear you can't ask for a better pattern with less the teleconnections we got going. This will not be a long lasting storm but it could get really snowy for 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A winter of teases doesn't make it a winter from hell. Agree. This winter is far from winter from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Agree. This winter is far from winter from hell.i loved this winter so far. So many storms to track. Yeah it's been teases after teases but soon or later we'll get clobbered! U getting any snow in Brooklyn tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A winter of teases doesn't make it a winter from hell. With all due respect,It's a completely subjective thing, and to me it does. This winter has featured cold air with no snow then rainstorms, then cold air and teases. What good is cold air with no snow? At that point I'd rather it be 70 and sunny. At least when there's no snow in Austin you're enjoying great weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm going all in this system and we should get 6-12 for nyc! I think you've said this for every storm lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 With all due respect,It's a completely subjective thing, and to me it does. This winter has featured cold air with no snow then rainstorms, then cold air and teases. What good is cold air with no snow? At that point I'd rather it be 70 and sunny. At least when there's no snow in Austin you're enjoying great weather.i had a snow cover for over 4 weeks. It snowed for thanksgiving. I have over 29 inches so far and I'm 8 miles north of the city so I would call this a B+ winter so far. Could have been better but December kinda killed it. Still have a great month coming up and we can get another few inches Tuesday according to CMC, euro and GFS now! So let the good times roll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think you've said this for every storm lmaorofl not this one. I called for 3-6 which is still a bust but yeah most of my calls were on the high end. I'm overly optimistic like my boy Anthony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 215 03z SREF look good fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The NAM has the low so far east it is almost in Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif sense the tone here? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT AS WELL AS HIGHERPROBABILITIES TO THE SNOW AXIS FROM PARTS OF MISSOURI EASTWARDTHROUGH THE OH-TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITHADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO ICE THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERNARKANSAS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ALSOPOSSIBLE IF THE NEW LOW TRACKS VERIFY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THENUMEROUS UNCERTAINTIES SUCH AS ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO RETARD THENORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELLAS THE COMPLEXITIES OF MID-LEVEL BANDING AND ROLE OFCONVECTION...ADJUSTMENTS OVERALL ARE MODEST BUT LESS CONSERVATIVETHAT WOULD PURELY BE SUGGESTED FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCEALONE. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN LESS THAN AVERAGE RUN-TO-RUNCONTINUITY...WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON TO BE CAUTIOUS OF HUGEFORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. THEREFORE...THE LATEST SNOW/ICEPROBABILITIES ARE WEIGHTED 50 TO 75 PERCENT TOWARD THE LATESTCONSENSUS. my take...cautious but possibly huge adjustments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This one is legit folks....don't rule out the chance that we may see models tick down some on QPF in the next 36 hours as the system is a fast mover and fast movers often see that happen but its likely to give snow to many even if its not a monster event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I advise everyone in NYC to exercise extreme caution in believing anything mets and/or models say. They are 0 for the winter, so I'd temper expectations tremendously. Guess I'm the El Negativo, but whomever said they'll believe it's gonna snow when it snows and accumulates is dead on. Enough of this stuff. If you have zero reason to believe models or mets, stop posting about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This one is legit folks....don't rule out the chance that we may see models tick down some on QPF in the next 36 hours as the system is a fast mover and fast movers often see that happen but its likely to give snow to many even if its not a monster event The RGEM is known to be overamped toward hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New gfs is a mis. This one looks cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New gfs is a mis. This one looks cooked Miss for you I get 4 to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New gfs is a mis. This one looks cooked What miss? Its not a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Upton is forecasting 1-3 for western Long island Tuesday. And 2-4" for eastern long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Basically every snow event has under performed this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Basically every snow event has under performed this winter.Didn't you get 20 from the blizzard ? ( When you get a blizzard it can never under perform ) Followed by 6 to 8 a week later ? ( over performed ) I know it sucked to miss this one as IVTs are impossible to forecast. My call was 4 with 40 mph winds for most ,we doubled that in MC , while others halved it. The IVT was modeled over long Island for days , it just stayed south by 30 miles. The same 30 mile difference that burned the western posters during the blizzard. There is still a lot of ground on the NS my other house is next door to you in Laurel Hollow . Contrast that with S Brooklyn , those 30 mile snow depths are night and day. One of these will drop the hammer on everyone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New gfs is a mis. This one looks cooked When declaring a miss that means it's OTS... So for you to have that is false but you are just concerned about your BY. For you but not everyone else. Also declaring its cooked on an 6z run of the GFS is a little crazy since the majority of the globals last night thought otherwise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I advise everyone in NYC to exercise extreme caution in believing anything mets and/or models say. They are 0 for the winter, so I'd temper expectations tremendously. Guess I'm the El Negativo, but whomever said they'll believe it's gonna snow when it snows and accumulates is dead on. Enough of this stuff. If you have zero reason to believe models or mets, stop posting about them. You guys deleted my impassioned defense of the NWS and the meteorology profession,, as well as a bunch of "kudos" posts agreeing with me, and yet you left the offending post up for everyone to see? Yes I insulted NYCGreg in doing so, but c'mon it was deserved. Very disappointed that a moderator would delete my post and the responses and leave this indefensible post up. Very disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You guys deleted my impassioned defense of the NWS and the meteorology profession,, as well as a bunch of "kudos" posts agreeing with me, and yet you left the offending post up for everyone to see? Yes I insulted NYCGreg in doing so, but c'mon it was deserved. Very disappointed that a moderator would delete my post and the responses and leave this indefensible post up. Very disappointed.For the record, and coming from a huge nws defender, i dont care how impassioned your defense of the nws is, if you cant do it without the insults (no matter how warranted), it has no place here. Youre more than welcome to try again without the name calling.And i left the other post up as an example of how i intend to moderate the forum, especially for this influx of what i can only guess are new accuweather posters. I dont have the time nor the energy to PM each poster individually, and seeing as how some of them are most likely kids...expecting them to know how to act here and warning/suspending them without any warning is a bit unfair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Also for the record, if you need to call someone a big doodyhead, the banter thread is a good place to try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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