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Feb 17 Miller A Threat


Zelocita Weather

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I call it being realistic. Go with the trends and don't bet against the house. Of course, every once in a while, betting against the house *does* pay off . . .

i just have a great feeling about this one. And I swear you can't ask for a better pattern with less the teleconnections we got going. This will not be a long lasting storm but it could get really snowy for 8 hours.
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A winter of teases doesn't make it a winter from hell.

With all due respect,It's a completely subjective thing, and to me it does. This winter has featured cold air with no snow then rainstorms, then cold air and teases. What good is cold air with no snow? At that point I'd rather it be 70 and sunny. At least when there's no snow in Austin you're enjoying great weather.

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With all due respect,It's a completely subjective thing, and to me it does. This winter has featured cold air with no snow then rainstorms, then cold air and teases. What good is cold air with no snow? At that point I'd rather it be 70 and sunny. At least when there's no snow in Austin you're enjoying great weather.

i had a snow cover for over 4 weeks. It snowed for thanksgiving. I have over 29 inches so far and I'm 8 miles north of the city so I would call this a B+ winter so far. Could have been better but December kinda killed it. Still have a great month coming up and we can get another few inches Tuesday according to CMC, euro and GFS now! So let the good times roll!
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http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif

 

 

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

 

sense the tone here?

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

 

MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT AS WELL AS HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TO THE SNOW AXIS FROM PARTS OF MISSOURI EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OH-TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO ICE THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ALSO
POSSIBLE IF THE NEW LOW TRACKS VERIFY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
NUMEROUS UNCERTAINTIES SUCH AS ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO RETARD THE
NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL
AS THE COMPLEXITIES OF MID-LEVEL BANDING AND ROLE OF
CONVECTION...ADJUSTMENTS OVERALL ARE MODEST BUT LESS CONSERVATIVE
THAT WOULD PURELY BE SUGGESTED FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
ALONE. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN LESS THAN AVERAGE RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY...WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON TO BE CAUTIOUS OF HUGE
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.
THEREFORE...THE LATEST SNOW/ICE
PROBABILITIES ARE WEIGHTED 50 TO 75 PERCENT TOWARD THE LATEST
CONSENSUS.

 

my take...cautious but possibly huge adjustments

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I advise everyone in NYC to exercise extreme caution in believing anything mets and/or models say. They are 0 for the winter, so I'd temper expectations tremendously. Guess I'm the El Negativo, but whomever said they'll believe it's gonna snow when it snows and accumulates is dead on.

Enough of this stuff. If you have zero reason to believe models or mets, stop posting about them.

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This one is legit folks....don't rule out the chance that we may see models tick down some on QPF in the next 36 hours as the system is a fast mover and fast movers often see that happen but its likely to give snow to many even if its not a monster event

 

 

The RGEM is known to be overamped toward hour 54.

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Basically every snow event has under performed this winter.

Didn't you get 20 from the blizzard ? ( When you get a blizzard it can never under perform ) Followed by 6 to 8 a week later ? ( over performed ) I know it sucked to miss this one as IVTs are impossible to forecast.

My call was 4 with 40 mph winds for most ,we doubled that in MC , while others halved it. The IVT was modeled over long Island for days , it just stayed south by 30 miles.

The same 30 mile difference that burned the western posters during the blizzard.

There is still a lot of ground on the NS my other house is next door to you in Laurel Hollow . Contrast that with S Brooklyn , those 30 mile snow depths are night and day.

One of these will drop the hammer on everyone .

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New gfs is a mis.

This one looks cooked

When declaring a miss that means it's OTS... So for you to have that is false but you are just concerned about your BY. For you but not everyone else. Also declaring its cooked on an 6z run of the GFS is a little crazy since the majority of the globals last night thought otherwise!

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I advise everyone in NYC to exercise extreme caution in believing anything mets and/or models say. They are 0 for the winter, so I'd temper expectations tremendously. Guess I'm the El Negativo, but whomever said they'll believe it's gonna snow when it snows and accumulates is dead on.

 

 

Enough of this stuff. If you have zero reason to believe models or mets, stop posting about them.

 

You guys deleted my impassioned defense of the NWS and the meteorology profession,, as well as a bunch of "kudos" posts agreeing with me, and yet you left the offending post up for everyone to see?  Yes I insulted NYCGreg in doing so, but c'mon it was deserved.  Very disappointed that a moderator would delete my post and the responses and leave this indefensible post up. Very disappointed.   

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You guys deleted my impassioned defense of the NWS and the meteorology profession,, as well as a bunch of "kudos" posts agreeing with me, and yet you left the offending post up for everyone to see? Yes I insulted NYCGreg in doing so, but c'mon it was deserved. Very disappointed that a moderator would delete my post and the responses and leave this indefensible post up. Very disappointed.

For the record, and coming from a huge nws defender, i dont care how impassioned your defense of the nws is, if you cant do it without the insults (no matter how warranted), it has no place here. Youre more than welcome to try again without the name calling.

And i left the other post up as an example of how i intend to moderate the forum, especially for this influx of what i can only guess are new accuweather posters. I dont have the time nor the energy to PM each poster individually, and seeing as how some of them are most likely kids...expecting them to know how to act here and warning/suspending them without any warning is a bit unfair.

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