Nibor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z run is a coastal scraper definitely came a bit west but only delivers 1-2 inches Can't trust these models! It's computer guidance, not a crystal ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When allsnow or yanksfan aren't doing pbp, that right there should tell you it's not looking good ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's computer guidance, not a crystal ball.okay so I'm gonna guess and say this is going to be a MECS! Now I guarantee you I'll get criticized. Some people on here you can't win ! Now they're going to ask me what science is behind my call. It's a guess! That's all it is. I think that high pressure overhead will break down by the time the low starts skirting northward and it'll be a moisture golden system with .75"-1.5" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So all the hype cold snow it might just be the cold that's the story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When allsnow or yanksfan aren't doing pbp, that right there should tell you it's not looking good ATM.it definitely wasn't as sheared out! Let's see what tomorrow's models show us after this underperformer gets outta here! Good night everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When allsnow or yanksfan aren't doing pbp, that right there should tell you it's not looking good ATM. Gfs brought the storm back. 2-3 for the area. It's a start. Sorry was at a wedding tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So all the hype cold snow it might just be the cold that's the story Uh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When allsnow or yanksfan aren't doing pbp, that right there should tell you it's not looking good ATM. Or it's Valentine's Day and they have better things to do. 0z gfs was better organized and closer to the coast. Minor event but it wasn't ots. Fast moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ http://www.twisterdata.com/ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://www.weather5280.com/models/gfs/00z/conus/ Fantastic reply although sometimes it's fun to follow along a pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That shortwave along the Ohio River aids in the intensification of the first low on Tuesday, which swings out to sea and blazes a trail for the second low, borne of the amplifying trough over the upper Midwest that dives in and phases with some of those other wayward shortwaves. If we could somehow get more of these waves to wait for each other, it would probably be a much more conducive setup. The below frame is hour 54, but check out the same product at hour 90... that vigorous, negatively tilted trough looks pretty good (if a bit broad), but again, the surface low is already riding in the wake of the first cyclone by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z 00z Slight improvements. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z 00z Slight improvements. Sent from my iPhone Yea slightly stronger northern stream and a bit more digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Your guess is as good as ours.Definitely nowhere near as good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ggem north. Ukie is a nice hit. Someone post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Crazy winter with these models, I know thay will also have trouble with this one too. Unlike the Valentine day massacre storm I think this one will produce because the trough to our east will lift out faster then predicted. So it will let a wet southern storm track much closer than currently progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 With rain this time lol.im 99% sure we are not getting rain with this unless your at Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00z ukmet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 this period of snow and cold we are having reminds me a little of the 1986-87 winter...after the cold wave in February a storm moved just close enough to give the city 5" of wet snow but more to the south...we are going to have our coldest morning this week and a southern storm might get far enough to give the city some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00z ukmet: Keep it coming..excited for the euro tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 CMC looks much better! At this time I think models are trending back to a snowier side... Hopefully we don't get ripped off again like tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Rain will be reserved for that huge storm on the GFS 200 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00z ukmet: You can say that it trended better, but this isn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Rain will be reserved for that huge storm on the GFS 200 hours out. Weenie land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 im 99% sure we are not getting rain with this unless your at Cape Cod With this winter, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You can say that it trended better, but this isn't much. Its a nice snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That shortwave along the Ohio River aids in the intensification of the first low on Tuesday, which swings out to sea and blazes a trail for the second low, borne of the amplifying trough over the upper Midwest that dives in and phases with some of those other wayward shortwaves. If we could somehow get more of these waves to wait for each other, it would probably be a much more conducive setup. The below frame is hour 54, but check out the same product at hour 90... that vigorous, negatively tilted trough looks pretty good (if a bit broad), but again, the surface low is already riding in the wake of the first cyclone by that time. It looks like the 00z suite is really amplifying the lead shortwave now as opposed to the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00z ukmet: The frame before Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ukie is 3-6" area wide. More east. How are gfs emsembles? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Word on the street the ecm is decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro looks good for the dc crew I'm hearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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