Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll bite...Did it come north whatsoever from 12z? Sent from my iPhone two coastal lows back to back both out to sea http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1423955482387 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Are the ensembles out yet???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 two coastal lows back to back both out to sea So our fate is ots if strung out and more amped if consolidated? Any hope or improvement at 500? ... Hopefully the gefs throw us a bone here Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Are the ensembles out yet???? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021418/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_15.png merge them maybe you get a 2001 lb fish sandwich http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021418/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_15.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021418/gfs_apcpn_namer_20.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gefs are OTS as well. So this one seems like it's almost done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gefs are OTS as well. So this one seems like it's almost done Euro, UKMET and NAM are close to brushing us. It's far from done. Let's see if it starts to trend closer tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gefs are OTS as well. So this one seems like it's almost done No way. Storm one first then storm two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021418/gfs-ens_apcpn_namer_20.png wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021418/gfs-ens_apcpn_namer_20.png _namer_20.png wide right Guess you finally realize that this may go ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Guess you finally realize that this may go ots. snow1 you forecast for us the rest of the week ...O.K. bring all your guesses!!!!! lol dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's extremely unlikely that the second low would come up the coast after a miss from the first. That said, I've found that these multiple-wave solutions usually end up as one consolidated cyclone, so anything's possible I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's extremely unlikely that the second low would come up the coast after a miss from the first. That said, I've found that these multiple-wave solutions usually end up as one consolidated cyclone, so anything's possible I guess. BINGO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 snow1 you forecast for us the rest of the week ...O.K. bring all your guesses!!!!! lol dm HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 snow1 you forecast for us the rest of the week ...O.K. bring all your guesses!!!!! lol dm No hard feelings brother, just pissed off at this winter season and not having any good snow storms in central jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I say we wait until this storm passes. The blizzard (not saying this will be one) didn't come back to the coast until that SWFE moved through our area on that saturday am IIRC Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just a reminder to send the OPC your love on Wednesday... they will be happy to hear from ya!!!! http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif *your weather word of the day* ABSORBED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 pulled from the Mid-Atlantic crew SREF http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/SREF/21/NE/srefNE_prec_snow8_069.gif and the previous run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_069_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 nam just came in really south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 nam just came in really south. In line with most guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 nam just came in really south. E come on now who has NAM extrap skills???? run the loop that's one funky dance in the last few frames!!! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2015021500&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=393.3333333333333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Let's just hope the 00z's have a western trend starting tonight..especially the euro...it does great with these systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 E come on now nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png who has NAM extrap skills???? I think this storm has a lot of potential. Just need some height rises along the coast. H5 looks great overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9jhwbg_conus.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No means this storm is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No means this storm is done Explain Why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No means this storm is doneAll kidding, wishing, hoping, dreaming and assuming aside, what are the actual % chances of this storm being OTS? I need to help my wife decide if she'll need to go in tomorrow or not... Sorry for my attitude, took off of work tomorrow to spend time with her and if she doesn't have to in and ends up going in I'm going to be pissed :-)Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All kidding, wishing, hoping, dreaming and assuming aside, what are the actual % chances of this storm being OTS? I need to help my wife decide if she'll need to go in tomorrow or not... Sorry for my attitude, took off of work tomorrow to spend time with her and if she doesn't have to in and ends up going in I'm going to be pissed :-) Thanks! Your guess is as good as ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS? http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ http://www.twisterdata.com/ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://www.weather5280.com/models/gfs/00z/conus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z run is a coastal scraper definitely came a bit west but only delivers 1-2 inches Can't trust these models! You're not meant to 'trust' or 'distrust' a model... that mantra is getting tired pretty quickly. They're merely tools of the trade. That's why we still need educated and competent meteorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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