IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The surface low is over the Carolina beaches instead of a few hundred miles offshore. The cliff diving can stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's a good few hundred miles West so far Nice call! Snow back towards dca now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2-4 for costal sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Coastal brush this run. Just need the trough to go negative tilt a bit faster and we're back in business. As is, this is a pretty solid hit for the area. Sharp cut off over NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Oh yea remember the system where people called suppression and a DC south special only to trend hundreds of miles to the north giving us a snow to rain/ice mix. You can't lock in anything this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 4-6" for Central and Southern NJ. 2-4" for most of NNJ, NYC, LI, SE LHV and SW CT. 1-2" for NW NJ and the W LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 4-6" for Central and Southern NJ. 2-4" for most of NNJ, NYC, LI, SE LHV and SW CT. 1-2" for NW NJ and the W LHV. You are clearly further out than me, but yes at 108 hrs the precip shield is way further west and north from the 6z. A Tad west of 0z too. Ice where do you get your maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 A very nice slowing down of the Upper Jet 250mb kicker this run.....see that and with all of yesterdays flight samples ingested oh yeah we in business--- yes sir http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=uv250&runtime=2015021312&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=310.6666666666667 I can't stress enough how sweet this recco data is for stabilizing our runs http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_20.png that Atlantic High Pressure prog is back on our side this morning at 1031mb dig it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS and NavGEM so far focus on wave 2 while the GGEM/UKMET focus on wave 1...the end result is the first 2 would be hits, the 2nd would be misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKIE looks good at 96 Nice ridge axis , that should pull this N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2015021312&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=266.6666666666667 the bleeding has subsided for the time being... GEFS comps take notice of the lakes L.P. area from the 06z slide it be gone this run dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro to strong with confluence out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro to strong with confluence out to sea It skirts the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gets light snow to the coast. Ends up a bit better then 00z. The ridge out west needs to be further west or more energy need to eject Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It skirts the coast Ends up better then I thought! Nice spot right now 4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How far east of the benchmark does it get? I hate not having access to euro maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How far east of the benchmark does it get? I hate not having access to euro maps.... The closest pass is about 75 miles southeast of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like where we stand with this storm. The trend today has been to move it back to a benchmark trajectory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not that I put much weight in model guidance this far out, but how strong is the storm supposed to be. In addition, what do temps look like during this tine frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not that I put much weight in model guidance this far out, but how strong is the storm supposed to be. In addition, what do temps look like during this tine frame? No need to worry about temps unless it goes back to a apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like where we stand with this storm. The trend today has been to move it back to a benchmark trajectory! Agreed... We have 4 plus days for the models to make this happen... plenty of time for it to shift 75-100 miles further NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like where we stand with this storm. The trend today has been to move it back to a benchmark trajectory! There is a reason storms like 40/70 and it's the Gulf Stream. Even now in the heart of the winter there is 70 degree water out there! I like this threat allot. I think we will continue to see things move around and weenie bipolar fun. This is the best chance for our buddies in Monmouth and Middlesex to score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Agreed... We have 4 plus days for the models to make this happen... plenty of time for it to shift 75-100 miles further NW... that's been the seasonal trend, north as we get closer. But we're due for a fish storm as well so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 that's been the seasonal trend, north as we get closer. But we're due for a fish storm as well so who knows. nah... i think the trend will continue... no reason why it shouldn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Currently I am more concern with a change over to ice than it going to out to sea. All winter the models start to trend west on events like this one.about 78-96 ours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro Ensembles..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro Ensembles..... The mean is similar to the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No need to worry about temps unless it goes back to a apps runneri agree this would be Ann all snow event unless an app runner happens which is like 1% at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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