Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:38 PM, uncle W said: 31" in Port jervis is a low number for them...I believe their lowest snowfall winter was 25" in 1972-73 but I'm guessing... Definitely agree...but again, its only through the middle of February...and YTD its pretty close to normal because they average at least another half foot the rest of this month, at least 10 or 12 inches in March...and at least 2 or 3 in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:43 PM, UnionWeatherGuy12 said: We can't buy a legit threat here, absolutely ridiculous. How's thunderstorm season looking? There all legit, pattern just finds ways to miss, I'm right around my average for the year so I can't complain, but I will say without the 12+" I saw for the thanksgiving storm I would be well below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Don't worry, another southern slider early next week. Even too far South for the DC crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:46 PM, IsentropicLift said: Don't worry, another southern slider early next week. Even too far South for the DC crew. That's going to end up trending north probably in the end....the Euro has not been enthused with that being that far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:46 PM, SnowGoose69 said: That's going to end up trending north probably in the end....the Euro has not been enthused with that being that far south Not unless that high pressure In western New York scoots out or is delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:46 PM, SnowGoose69 said: That's going to end up trending north probably in the end....the Euro has not been enthused with that being that far south With a 1044mb high near Toronto? Going to need that to be further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:49 PM, IsentropicLift said: With a 1044mb high near Toronto? Going to need that to be further North. The tendency all winter has been for that to be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GGEM brings a big snowstorm for northern MS, AL and GA. Enough to shut them down for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Who's got that "It's dead Jim" meme... We're trending that way. Lots of wasted hours tracking last few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:49 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The tendency all winter has been for that to be the caseExcept tonight's storm1023H parked right in central NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:49 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The tendency all winter has been for that to be the case I actually like the setup on the GGEM because the high is retreating North as the system tries to undercut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z UKMET is .27" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:50 PM, danstorm said: Who's got that "It's dead Jim" meme... We're trending that way. Lots of wasted hours tracking last few storms. I'm burned out, that's part of the reason why I made very few posts over the weekend even when things looked better. We need a break from threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:50 PM, IsentropicLift said: The GGEM brings a big snowstorm for northern MS, AL and GA. Enough to shut them down for days. I'm in ATL too Thu-Wed...I don't buy it because the UKMET has nothing its way north and its been money lately...I could see TN/NC getting it but GA I doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:50 PM, danstorm said: Who's got that "It's dead Jim" meme... We're trending that way. Lots of wasted hours tracking last few storms. Last two 'storms' have been rough, hopefully 2-3" tonight will ease the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:52 PM, ag3 said: 12z UKMET is .27" for NYC. And let me guess, almost nothing for interior NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Amazing how every event has trended bad for us with less then 24 hrs to go...only events that over achieved where the front end thump storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:53 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Last two 'storms' have been rough, hopefully 2-3" tonight will ease the pain. Not counting on it, C-1" should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:52 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I'm in ATL too Thu-Wed...I don't buy it because the UKMET has nothing its way north and its been money lately...I could see TN/NC getting it but GA I doubt It's too bad because we probably need the system to dig that far South in order to have a chance of rounding the corner in time underneath the retreating high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:53 PM, Allsnow said: Amazing how every event has trended bad for us with less then 24 hrs to go...only events that over achieved where the front end thump storms Models are historically bad with front end dumps. WAA precip almost always arrives faster than modeled and that usually means slightly better conditions for snow than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:54 PM, danstorm said: Not counting on it, C-1" should do it. If I dont get 0.5" to get me over 20" for the season, I am done with 14/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:53 PM, IsentropicLift said: And let me guess, almost nothing for interior NNJ. It looks similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The UKMET/GGEM/Euro really want to feather the storm up through the 2 massive highs, that's what makes this one probably one of the hardest ones so far this year...the highs have tended to be weaker but that is not really a plausible idea, it requires perfect timing hich at 132 hours is not even within the realm of guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:56 PM, Zelocita Weather said: If I dont get 0.5" to get me over 20" for the season, I am done with 14/15 Stuck at 19.3" for the season. If I can't even reach the 20" mark spring can come ASAP, I don't want rain either until June or something. I'm way below my season average. (29"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z Nam cobb output is 7.3" on 0.38 LE..The 6z gfs was 4.6" on 0.30" LE..We don't need much precip to get decent total's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hr 198 is another "close" call on the GFS, typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 UKMET KEEPS HOPE ALIVE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 AG u rat . 30 seconds . Can`t teach quickness lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:59 PM, Mohawkvalley said: 12z Nam cobb output is 7.3" on 0.38 LE..The 6z gfs was 4.6" on 0.30" LE..We don't need much precip to get decent total's.. what is the 12z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z Summary (2/16) NYC Area QPF (NW - SE Gradient) SREF : 0.25 - 0.50 NAM : 0.25 - 0.40 RGEM: 0.10 - 0.20 GFS : 0.10 - 0.20 GGEM : 0.05 - 0.15 UKMET : 0.25 - 0.40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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