Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 4:14 AM, snow1 said: Don't worry, Doorman will take us to the promise land with this storm lol where is this guy tonight??? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro is usaully really good with these southern stream storms...let's see what it says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 6:00 AM, weatherfreeeeak said: Euro is usaully really good with these southern stream storms...let's see what it says with all due respect freakness.... the euro took this OTS last night at this time!!! Really..... 0z GEFS pressure centers http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021400/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Its so quiet in here now ...00z ECM says ...Hmmm GFS what you smoking? But then IMHO the NAVGEM is saying ECM what are you smoking? ECM is well south and east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 However..ECM buries the region the 21-22nd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gefs has the low right near the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 12:24 PM, Snow88 said: Gefs has the low right near the benchmarkMore importantly upton is drinking the GFS ' S coolaide n I don't blame them bc the reasoning is highly sound behind shift west. In the end degree of phasing will determine all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 By Feb 17 the PNA is plus 2 SD above N . This should come . We are only 4 days out . I like the ridge axis so the trough placement looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 7:09 AM, atownwxwatcher said: However..ECM buries the region the 21-22nd! Can you elaborate a little? Have huge plans next Saturday night with a few hundred folks coming to New Brunswick, NJ for a big shindig and a big storm on Saturday night would be a problem for many traveling from further away than me (I'll have no issue being 5 miles away). Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 12:55 PM, RU848789 said: Can you elaborate a little? Have huge plans next Saturday night with a few hundred folks coming to New Brunswick, NJ for a big shindig and a big storm on Saturday night would be a problem for many traveling from further away than me (I'll have no issue being 5 miles away). Thanks. It is 7+ days out & the EURO likes to show big snowstorms in the LR, but it shows a MECS from the SE to NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 1:05 PM, Highzenberg said: It is 7+ days out & the EURO likes to show big snowstorms in the LR, but it shows a MECS from the SE to NE Thanks - I know it's far enough off to not panic about, but now I know I should pay attention. While there are tons of model storms in the LR that don't pan out, it's rare for a real storm to have not been modeled as storms by at least a couple of the models in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1423920599 mt holly TUESDAY...DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED BUT IT SHOULD SNOW. 00Z/14 GEFSSUPPORT AS WELL AS 03Z/14 SREF AND TELCON AT 3 AM WITH WPC D4QPF. THE 00Z/14 ECMWF AND GGEM DO NOT AGREE SO POPS ONLY LIKELYATTM. STILL UNCERTAINTY. COULD BE ADVISORY OR EVEN LOWER WARNINGCRITERIA BUT FAR FAR TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT OF AMOUNTS. A MIXOF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND MAYBE EVEN ACHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 1:33 PM, Doorman said: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1423920599 mt holly TUESDAY...DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED BUT IT SHOULD SNOW. 00Z/14 GEFS SUPPORT AS WELL AS 03Z/14 SREF AND TELCON AT 3 AM WITH WPC D4 [url="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF'>QPF. THE 00Z/14 ECMWF AND GGEM DO NOT AGREE SO POPS ONLY LIKELY ATTM. STILL UNCERTAINTY. COULD BE ADVISORY OR EVEN LOWER WARNING CRITERIA BUT FAR FAR TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT OF AMOUNTS. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND MAYBE EVEN A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off That wpc map is pretty Far East of their previous maps. I'm assuming the euro ensembles are also east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:47 PM, swamplover56 said: That wpc map is pretty Far East of their previous maps. I'm assuming the euro ensembles are also east 56 .5 for the entire metro atm---snow per the WPC subjective....euro-ens http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015021400/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_eus_5.png - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 3:24 PM, Doorman said: 56 .5 for the entire metro atm---snow subjective....euro-ens http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015021400/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_eus_5.png ee.png- You change your avatar too much...focus on one identity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 3:51 PM, swamplover56 said: Gfs? Going to be further se this run...not as amped or sending the same amount of energy out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 3:54 PM, Allsnow said: Going to be further se this run...not as amped or sending the same amount of energy out No bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yep. Similar to euro out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Brushes the beaches with some light snow... The faster the energy ejects the more se this will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still 3.5 days away guys, it's a close miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think the GEFS is what we really need to pay attention too. The cluster seemed pretty packed for a system near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 To be fair, it wasn't a complete miss for our area. 3 or 4" for most of LI and 2-3" for the NYC area. The last run had a couple inches more. The low just developed a bit further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's all about how/when that energy ejects. Lots of time before the final solution gets nailed down here... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's wait until this current storm passes and start really tracking this 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lots of back and forth on the track and changes in how the energy ejects out of the SW as AllSnow alluded to. Probably needs another day or two to figure the playing field out behind this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:27 PM, weatherfreeeeak said: Let's wait until this current storm passes and start really tracking this 12z tomorrow Agreed, I hate when people start saying OTS this far out. Can you imagine this forum before models? People might have to actually look at the pattern themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think this one is OTS, even if the 2nd wave down south amps up the first wave may ultimately force everything too far east, all the 12Z Models so far have come in south with the first wave towards the euro, my guess is this one is not coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:55 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I think this one is OTS, even if the 2nd wave down south amps up the first wave may ultimately force everything too far east, all the 12Z Models so far have come in south with the first wave towards the euro, my guess is this one is not coming back Way too early to know ... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam looks Bueno at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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