allgame830 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So it seems to me that the focus is being put on this storm for the NYC area to deliver a big time storm. Not to say Saturday we wont get something but this storm looks like the "Big Dog". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No preciep issues for anyone this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 6-12 entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This storm is the one I think we may have all been waiting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metro Devils Fan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Qpf? Please Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like your typical quick hitting 6-12" storm. People are going to love this run and rightfully so but I'd rather take my chances with a stronger low and a better chance of getting into deformation banding. Yes, I'm being greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That`s why you don`t argue P TYPE 6 days out on OP runs . HP through the lakes on the Euro where as the GFS had LP there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:28 PM, Allsnow said: No preciep issues for anyone this run...still days away obviously but this looks like the most impactful storm for nyc in quite a while. Especially with all that cold air around and snow cover I don't see how we are going to have mixed precip. Looks good for a 6-12 inches from my examination. Do you got the qpf for nyc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer67 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What's nice is that we know there is actually going to be a large storm moving towards our area...not a bunch of pieces of energy we are praying to blow up into a storm in time to hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 QPF is a little hard to determine, have to wait for the run to go out further because the current numbers include Saturday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:32 PM, Winter201415 said: still days away obviously but this looks like the most impactful storm for nyc in quite a while. Especially with all that cold air around and snow cover I don't see how we are going to have mixed precip. Looks good for a 6-12 inches from my examination. Do you got the qpf for nyc? Hard to tell because it's combined with Saturday's event. Best guess 1.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:31 PM, PB GFI said: That`s why you don`t argue P TYPE 6 days out on OP runs . HP through the lakes on the Euro where as the GFS had LP there . Nobody was arguing P TYPE for the actual event, the argument was what the run showed, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Okay I've got the QPF numbers from WxBell using 24hr totals. NYC looks right between 0.6" and 0.7" 1.00"+ is confined to coastal SNJ Most of NJ NW of the GSP is under 0.50" LI is 0.5" - 0.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 5 runs ago this was an inland runner. Each subsequent run it's moved further east. Now, it's just about perfect...maybe already ever so slightly east then what we would perfectly want. If this eastward trend continues ( even just 75 more miles east, which isn't much 132 hours out), we will be looking at the same situation that's been happening all winter. Too far north, or too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 WxBell maps show 6"+ from NYC south and East. 3-6" NW of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So, this run wasn't that great, it looked better than it actually was because all we had to go by was the QPF totals from both events combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:40 PM, IsentropicLift said: So, this run wasn't that great, it looked better than it actually was because all we had to go by was the QPF totals from both events combined. It's a great run if it happen tomorrow...4-8/6-12 event....doesn't matter will change at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Blehh, cold rain down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:43 PM, Allsnow said: It's a great run if it happen tomorrow...4-8/6-12 event....doesn't matter will change at 00z. I think a lot of people have raised the bar with this potential. Solid warning criteria snowfall or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 .82 at ISP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 this looks like the storm that could hit everybody(meaning up and down the coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:46 PM, SnowWisher said: .82 at ISP KISP.JPG Yeah, from WxBell it looked like most of LI was 0.60-0.80". Definitly the further East you are the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:46 PM, SnowWisher said: .82 at ISP KISP.JPG .66 at KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:39 PM, KeithB said: 5 runs ago this was an inland runner. Each subsequent run it's moved further east. Now, it's just about perfect...maybe already ever so slightly east then what we would perfectly want. If this eastward trend continues ( even just 75 more miles east, which isn't much 132 hours out), we will be looking at the same situation that's been happening all winter. Too far north, or too far east NAO not cooperating. The -AO slows down the Westerlies enough over middle of the CONUS but as we get closer to the Eastern seaboard the +NAO is too much to bear and "progressiveness" reigns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:40 PM, IsentropicLift said: So, this run wasn't that great, it looked better than it actually was because all we had to go by was the QPF totals from both events combined.great run imo plenty of cold. Not even marginal. Also qpf is too far to pinpoint but looks good for our area for a warning snow criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:53 PM, wkd said: euro2-19.png That includes today, Saturday and the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:50 PM, jbenedet said: NAO not cooperating. The -AO slows down the Westerlies enough over middle of the CONUS but as we get closer to the Eastern seaboard the +NAO is too much to bear and "progressiveness" reigns.We can't buy a solid negative AO and west based negative NAO this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:58 PM, snowman19 said: We can't buy a solid negative AO and west based negative NAO this winter The AO has at least cooperated somewhat--the NAO hasn't been negative since late December, and I think it has a LOT to do with Western folks "losing" and Eastern folks "winning". Yes, we have lacked blocking as well, but the +NAO really adds insult to injury. If the westerly flow was slower near the eastern seaboard some of these storms would have had a better shot of amplifying sooner and bending back closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 More to snow ratios than just temperatures, also has to do with omega in the snowgrowth region. Keep that in mind. The 12z GFS showed 7.1" at LGA on 0.62" LE. Average ratio starting off at 17:1 and then dropping to 11:1 as the mid-levels warm. Comes out to an average snow ratio of only 11.46:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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