Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS and other models have a winter storm early next week, details to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro has the signal still for over running..2-4/3-6type deal on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This is more like Tue (2/17 - Thu (2/19) threat, The 12z run of the GGEM has a strong signal for a widespread storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 the 18z gfs has this but its a really quick mover probably a 3-6 inch type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 All southern stream with this on the gfs. Looks very nice so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Miller A on the gfs with a ton of over running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Both Clippers are looking like garbage...but next Tue/Wed looking good. High Prob event as it is a type of overrunning/Miller A...still on new GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Both Clippers are looking like garbage...but next Tue/Wed looking good. High Prob event as it is a type of overrunning/Miller A...still on new GFS I wouldn't go ahead and say the weekend event looks like garbage just yet... its only Tuesday and a lot can change. As for Thursday that looks very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro out to hr 168 major lower mid Atlantic snow storm going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hgts pretty flat ahead of the storm...Looks like a southern slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 hr 180 light to mod snow...low over obx. 3-6 type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 goes se of the bm....Nice look this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 hr 180 light to mod snow...low over obx. 3-6 type dealConsidering this year's north trend sounds perfect.You can't rely on northern stream storms to hit us when there's no blocking present. The flow is way too fast and these southern stream type of systems are our best shot at snow. The cold will be in place because the antecedent airmass is going to be very cold, we just need the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Gefs look very nice for this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z GFS through 06z Tuesday is roughly 300 miles further northeast with the surface low so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Overrunning snows almost into Philly before daybreak on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 A much needed snow event for our friends in the Mid-Atlantic this run. Especially from Richmond and points North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 At 15z Tuesday the surface low is near the WV, OH border as opposed to NW Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Light to moderate snow region wide on Tuesday, surface low to PA. DCA flips over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This looks like your typical SWFE, nothing spectacular. Cold air to the northwest, warm air to the southeast and then impulses running along the boundary. Plenty of time to work things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I like that we started off tracking this storm in the mid Atlantic. Trend this season is to track north from there so I like where where are at this point. Plenty of time to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This looks like your typical SWFE, nothing spectacular. Cold air to the northwest, warm air to the southeast and then impulses running along the boundary. Plenty of time to work things out. Based on the positioning of the high pressure centers on most guidance and the pattern, I think this event is mostly going to end up way north of where it's shown now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 CAUTION . That LP running through the lakes will most likely allow this to correct way N and W and that will not be snow on coastal plain and the western side will be robbed of any good moisture flow and you will be left with the best precip falling in the warm sector . You don't want to see LP there , you want to see a High through the lakes . So regardless of what the model shows you this far out , you NEED to see that change , if you want snow on the coastal plain and bigger precip shield to the W . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 For the old timers. But this storm looks like less precip on NW flank and no -40C. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0116.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0118.php Old timers huh lol. But ok true. When I saw that set up I wanted to yack . The problem looking at this 7 days out is that even though the surface says one thing the set up is screaming something different. It is 7 days away and with the amount of cold air through Canada you could easily see a HP system show up in the modeling over the next 3 to 4 days. I was just commenting on that set up and was saying if that's the surface map the day of it does not work. But there is time to resolve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Old timers huh lol. But ok true. When I saw that set up I wanted to yack . The problem looking at this 7 days out is that even though the surface says one thing the set up is screaming something different. It is 7 days away and with the amount of cold air through Canada you could easily see a HP system show up in the modeling over the next 3 to 4 days. I was just commenting on that set up and was saying if that's the surface map the day of it does not work. But there is time to resolve it You want the 12z Euro less amped solution that slides under instead of the digging more amped GFS/GGEM. A weaker southern stream disturbance would work here along the lines of the Euro that doesn't trend more amped over time. Plenty of time to work things out. This board would have melted down like Chernobyl if it was around for that one in 1994. The NE PA crew had bragging rights then and kept NYC from possibly going over 60" on the 93-94 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z gfs indv had some cutters for this. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Gefs mean is way nw with this. NOt good...has to be some cutters in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 we need the cold to hold very nice look ATM-imo http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f192_us.html http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std_f192_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Gefs mean is way nw with this. NOt good...has to be some cutters in there Probably illustrating the concern mentioned by PB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You want the 12z Euro less amped solution that slides under instead of the digging more amped GFS/GGEM. A weaker southern stream disturbance would work here along the lines of the Euro that doesn't trend more amped over time. Plenty of time to work things out. This board would have melted down like Chernobyl if it was around for that one in 1994. The NE PA crew had bragging rights then and kept NYC from possibly going over 60" on the 93-94 season. That was a well forecast event though, not at any time did they expect NYC to stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.