WeatherWilly Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Just asking for 4-6 inches here lol................only one storm has verified but it was the big one. Another disappointment last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Depth at Logan is 37 inches currently, Ryan just was on the news, and gave the depth at Logan. LOL, you asked the question, and I see the answer on the news a minute later. Hows that for Fate?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Another 36-40 hrs Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 If that would be the case there would be serious hydro issues for places that already are up over 48"+, I don't think it can get that far west with the kicker upstream Oh it definitely can't get that far west. The ridge axis out west is perfectly stable for eastern SNE. This will be a fun pattern in March as the seasonal jet lifts north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 look at the 850s...ratios would be higher than 10:1 for u at least Unless it gets pulverized by winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Oh it definitely can't get that far west. The ridge axis out west is perfectly stable for eastern SNE. We will need this to continue to dig for a more western solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 look at the 850s...ratios would be higher than 10:1 for u at least Only if the lift and moisture is at H85. It can be too cold and windy to get good flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 look at the 850s...ratios would be higher than 10:1 for u at least 850 mb temps in a frozen column are quite an unimportant parameter for SLRs. Indeed, if the GFS is to be believed, the strongest ascent could overshoot the DGZ and limit ratios in that manner (this graphic is from 12z, mind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You are on a roll lately. I like this one a lot but that said i have spent zero time looking way way to the source regions to see what's up. Relying more on models and analysis done by others at h12 etc. if there's a big error in the gfs that got missed than this train of thought is out the window but this seems like another case of a system falling into one of the euros cracks. Sw energy was never a strong point but was fixed much like the nam was fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GEFS looks pretty nice too, but east of 12z and OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 BOX has this as a Thursday/Thursday night deal..not Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 BOX 4pm AFD regarding potential. Basically in a wait and see mode. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN POTENTIAL ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARELISTED BELOW.1) SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OR GLANCING BLOW THU/EARLY FRI?MAIN CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHERSIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE WEPROBABLY WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...WHETHEROR NOT THIS BECOMES ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THEREGION REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WHAT WE DO KNOW THAT IS A POTENTSHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THENORTHEAST STATES. THE RESULT IS ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVERTHE GREAT LAKES...RE-DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND BECOMING A BOMBAS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.THE FORECAST DILEMMA IS THAT THE LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF BOMBINGOUT NEAR THE TIME ITS PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. A SUBTLEDIFFERENCE IN TIMING WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN A SMALL SNOWACCUMULATION OR A MAJOR WINTER STORM. HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVYSNOW/STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT STILL TOOEARLY TO RULE THE REST OF THE REGION OUT. THE SETUP HAS A LOT OFPOTENTIAL...BUT IT COULD END UP BEING JUST A LITTLE TOO LATE. WILLHAVE TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.LOOKING AT OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IN THIS RANGE CAN LEAD TO WILDSWINGS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS A BIG HITVS. THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH SHOWS A MISS GIVES US AN IDEA OF POSSIBLEOUTCOMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 BOX has this as a Thursday/Thursday night deal..not Friday If it ends up being a big event then it is Thursday night and early Friday. A bit slower makes it amplify. If it is a weaker 1-3 type event then it would be a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Just peeked at the GFS. Ok, who sold their soul for this winter in Boston? *raises hand* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z GEFS 84h & 90h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Just watched Harvey's broadcast...seems very concerned for Thursday night. Expecting "substantial or significant" snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 That's noose worthy here...8 inches while just SSE of here is crushed... Time to reel it back in a bit. CON averages 1.1 8" storms per year. They've already had 3 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Three weeks ago, just getting one foot+ storm would have been (relatively, based on December+early Jan) epic. In the next week comes #4 and maybe #5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Would expect to be significantly higher, right? Meh, that's about right for a guess in the BOX CWA. Basically even money that a storm will fall either side of 10:1. 75th percentile being 13.3" says you probably shouldn't count on a storm being any more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Time to reel it back in a bit. CON averages 1.1 8" storms per year. They've already had 3 this year.How much will that climb when we drop the 1980s and add the 2010s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Meh, that's about right for a guess in the BOX CWA. Basically even money that a storm will fall either side of 10:1. 75th percentile being 13.3" says you probably shouldn't count on a storm being any more than that. box.GIF Given the temperatures Thursday night to Friday, though, wouldn't we err on the side above the 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 i like 967 just east of the cape 18z GEFS 84h & 90h gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_15 (1).png gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 How much will that climb when we drop the 1980s and add the 2010s? Don't worry I built that into my reply, that's the long term CON average. 1981-2010 is 1.3 per year, 1991 through this year 1.8. Inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah it appears that if Thursday night is stronger and a hit, then Sunday is further east. Vice versa too. A weaker Friday system seems to give Sunday more room to amplify. I have been trying to convey this point on facebook to my family in friends. Just watched Harvey's broadcast...seems very concerned for Thursday night. Expecting "substantial or significant" snow..... I also tried to get everyone to watch Harvey. His voice and appearance was that of a concerned father watching over his children. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Given the temperatures Thursday night to Friday, though, wouldn't we err on the side above the 10:1? Not really, especially not at this range. I wouldn't start trying to guess SLRs before watches even fly. This is how we (NWS) end up with inflated maps three days out. We try and get too cute with things that are very difficult to forecast. I don't see any evidence from the soundings at BOS that SLRs should be significantly different from an average 10:1. In fact much of the lift in the GFS is above the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 I like that 967mb low on that member parked 10 minutes E of ACK ... 12-18" of snow driven along in infrastructural grid failure winds for everyone E of HFD-EEN.... SE Mass denuded off the face of the planet ... comet impacts, dogs and cats sleeping together, Tip finding a g-f ... I mean, you name it: hell comes to Earth on that idea. But, that all said, one thing this system has going for it, in my mind, is that it's too late to be wrong?? What I mean by that, the nearer term guidance (through 48 and 72 hours) is going to be less likely very wrong as Lucifer's hammer comes thundering down out of the Canadian territories and over western Lakes. That much mechanical power has got to be conserved ... to mention, getting a synoptic boost by the L/W axis parked along 75 or so W longitude; that much power is likely to built some S/W ridging out over the Atlantic/seen as bulge-correction in the isopleths running out immediately downstream the trough axis (I suspect going forward..); but that subtlety will tend to feed back on a westerly solution in my mind. Also, on a more conceptual level ... the flow looks too stretched, which was a correction applied to the charts prior to the blizzard, and that correct turned out the course of least regret. What all that means is... the ridge axis in the west is not progressive, so the R-wave arguments are that the deep layer trough in the E should reach its greatest depth/amplitude prior/along 75W ...not E of the coast like some of the eastern solutions appear to be. Anomalies relative to anomalies do take place from time to time, but for me, the better bet is bring this further west and deeper. Which ... I know, is quite fortunate for the denizens of SNE that are so winter starved this season and would do anything imaginable just to see a flake of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm not sure a hit will automatically mitigate 3 days later. Remember scooter flags and curses flying became of the 1/24 system ruining 1/26? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 If I had to pic, I'd rather the Friday event...maximize impact. Less time for settling, slam the public again while they're still reeling, then BAM....smoke everyone with a -30* windchill, as they shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I like that 967mb low on that member parked 10 minutes E of ACK ... 12-18" of snow driven along in infrastructural grid failure winds for everyone E of HFD-EEN.... SE Mass denuded off the face of the planet ... comet impacts, dogs and cats sleeping together, Tip finding a g-f ... I mean, you name it: hell comes to Earth on that idea. But, that all said, one thing this system has going for it, in my mind, is that it's too late to be wrong?? What I mean by that, the nearer term guidance (through 48 and 72 hours) is going to be less likely very wrong as Lucifer's hammer comes thundering down out of the Canadian territories and over western Lakes. That much mechanical power has got to be conserved ... to mention, getting a synoptic boost by the L/W axis parked along 75 or so W longitude; that much power is likely to built some S/W ridging out over the Atlantic/seen as bulge-correction in the isopleths running out immediately downstream the trough axis (I suspect going forward..); but that subtlety will tend to feed back on a westerly solution in my mind. Also, on a more conceptual level ... the flow looks too stretched, which was a correction applied to the charts prior to the blizzard, and that correct turned out the course of least regret. What all that means is... the ridge axis in the west is not progressive, so the R-wave arguments are that the deep layer trough in the E should reach its greatest depth/amplitude prior/along 75W ...not E of the coast like some of the eastern solutions appear to be. Anomalies relative to anomalies do take place from time to time, but for me, the better bet is bring this further west and deeper. Which ... I know, is quite fortunate for the denizens of SNE that are so winter starved this season and would do anything imaginable just to see a flake of snow... I like you much better like this when you are emotionally vested in snow and showing your joy and true spirit for a special winter. Not the guy talking about sun warming inside of cars in Feb as sun angle increases and going on killing sprees Valentines Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Those flags btw are lost....buried under 40 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.