JC-CT Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Tip did say this one needs to stay more progressive for the big dog to come to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro is basically a 1-3" event with maybe 3-5" on the Cape/Islands...maybe ACK gets warning snows. Given that some of the interaction that takes place 48-72 involves energy diving into the four corners region and sticking - not too worried about the Euro being east right now. Will see if it doesn't come some west tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Then why say "here"? As opposed to the ocean? Maybe you need break...you've been pretty irritable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'll take the 12z euro and run like a track star. Nice solid hit up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Maybe you need break...you've been pretty irritable I just thought it was a weird response. I'll put myself in timeout for while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Given that some of the interaction that takes place 48-72 involves energy diving into the four corners region and sticking - not too worried about the Euro being east right now. Will see if it doesn't come some west tonight. It's the eastern outlier at the moment...so I'll bet it does come west at least some....but if it has an idea over some other guidance, this could end up being a more tame adivosry or low end warning event versus another major snowstorm. It's not far from something big...that's for sure. It doesn't dig our main shortwave as much as the other models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 lets see what the Euro ens brings but maybe allows for a better system on sunday.. we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Seems like the days are gone of Euro sniffing a west trend while GFS is way East. Euro playing catch up and adjusting west twds GFS. Not the first time either since the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Seems like the days are gone of Euro sniffing a west trend while GFS is way East. Euro playing catch up and adjusting west twds GFS. Not the first time either since the upgrade. Well...this doesn't have to come west. I remember an event in early February 2009 when the GFS and NAM were insisting on a KU-esque coastal and the Euro kept it more tame as an advisory event with an inverted trough...well, guess which one ended up verifying? (hint: you probably don't remember a KU in early February 2009) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 posted in other thread but Euro looks better for Sunday.. FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 We've seen this EURO game before this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 We've seen this EURO game before this season. Yeah I'm not confident with it right now...it did perform well in the medium range though on our current long duration snow event...but these northern stream amplifiers it has had some trouble with at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Well...this doesn't have to come west. I remember an event in early February 2009 when the GFS and NAM were insisting on a KU-esque coastal and the Euro kept it more tame as an advisory event with an inverted trough...well, guess which one ended up verifying? (hint: you probably don't remember a KU in early February 2009)Im not sold that it's a big hit. But I do think the chsnces of at least a 3-6 event are pretty high.. I'd bet we see some decent spread west on the ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This will be a good test of which model sniffs out miller Bs, better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'll gladly sacrifice Thursday and sign up for what the euro showed on Sunday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'll gladly sacrifice Thursday and sign up for what the euro showed on Sunday lol Oh yes, We all would, But its a ways out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah I'm not confident with it right now...it did perform well in the medium range though on our current long duration snow event...but these northern stream amplifiers it has had some trouble with at times. There is the overall dominant pattern to consider, which says late week minor impact, early week big impact. Weak voodoo, but voodoo nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Well...this doesn't have to come west. I remember an event in early February 2009 when the GFS and NAM were insisting on a KU-esque coastal and the Euro kept it more tame as an advisory event with an inverted trough...well, guess which one ended up verifying? (hint: you probably don't remember a KU in early February 2009) I remember that one. That was my first usuage of the term "inverted trough of VD". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's the eastern outlier at the moment...so I'll bet it does come west at least some....but if it has an idea over some other guidance, this could end up being a more tame adivosry or low end warning event versus another major snowstorm. It's not far from something big...that's for sure. It doesn't dig our main shortwave as much as the other models do. There's that delicate interaction early in the cycle that delays it's ability to tilt the trough. Could be right but seems to be one of the old biases it has at times. Every winter is different though. I think it'll come west but am by no means certain yet. Compromise of the GFS and euro yields a moderate hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro ensembles look pretty good to me on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro ensembles look pretty good to me on this event. They are still more like the OP though versus the larger hits on other guidance...they do seem to throw a bit more moisture back into E MA though than the OP did...so there's probably a few good members in there. Hopefully we will see it come more on board at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 00z and 12z runs on Wednesday will let us know the extent of the potential blizzard on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 They are still more like the OP though versus the larger hits on other guidance...they do seem to throw a bit more moisture back into E MA though than the OP did...so there's probably a few good members in there. Hopefully we will see it come more on board at 00z. Well, it's not known for making huge leaps run to run. If 00z shows improvement it can be looked at as trending toward greater impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 They are still more like the OP though versus the larger hits on other guidance...they do seem to throw a bit more moisture back into E MA though than the OP did...so there's probably a few good members in there. Hopefully we will see it come more on board at 00z. To me that's a decent sign. A very small nuance on the Euro op and we have a big storm. Right now, it appears to be on the east side of the envelope so hopefully it comes inside in the next 2 runs. If it's alone, what to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 To me that's a decent sign. A very small nuance on the Euro op and we have a big storm. Right now, it appears to be on the east side of the envelope so hopefully it comes inside in the next 2 runs. If it's alone, what to do? Trust it implicitly. Worked out well for NYC a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'll take the 12z euro and run like a track star. Nice solid hit up here. The 12z EURO runs you right into a rainer, thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The 12z EURO runs you right into a rainer, thereafter.Not before a crap ton of snow to start. I'm good. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 NAM looks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 NAM looks south. I don't think it's quite gotten this next threat into a range where it has a decent handle on it yet; the depiction isn't that significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 NAM looks south. South? Not east/west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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