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2/12-13 Potential Coastal Storm Threat


Typhoon Tip

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I don't really see this system having a tremendous amount of influence on the weekend potential.  I think that potential is more aligned with how the PAC ridge continues to develop in the short-term between the end of the week moving into the weekend and that will ultimately affect the heights down stream and determine where exactly the trough axis is located.  

 

I guess this system could screw with the heights over the western Atlantic, however, there is plenty of time between this departure and the weekend potential for the pattern across the western Atlantic to "re-configure" with the PAC ridge playing a dominant factor in the overall pattern

 

I tend to agree with this statement (bold) above... 

 

These impulses are monsters... They are so powerful, they really can overcome some of the typical limitations due to deconstructive wave interference/spacing contentions.   

 

In an exotic sense, think of them like LP supercells ... as opposed to rain-wrappers (HPs).. 

 

There will be two important storms over the next 7 to 8 days... That's about as close to definite as we can get.   The questions are, for whom and what will those impacts be?  

 

Firstly, should we miss the first event, folks should be aware not to confuse that with impugning the efforts of monitoring, or even forecasting.  This pattern, a historic one and for the most part a 'climate event', is already in the books; the two next systems in the series are merely just additional chapters in that story ... as yet to be written in truth.  In other words, there's no take away if you don't get additional snow -- 

 

Just my two -pennies on the philosophy of things ... That said, the last few cycles of the NAM are clawing and scraping at least excuse imaginable to pull this/edge it east.  And, I still think that looks odd relative to the whole of the synoptic evolution across North America. The flow is too stretched.. The ridge in the west remains anchored during the troughs greatest nadir; swinging it E boldly into the Atlantic is anomalous.  

 

Not impossible .. just seems less likely.  I would still be vigil from mid LI to eastern Ma/RI and the Cape on this guy. 

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I don't really see this system having a tremendous amount of influence on the weekend potential.  I think that potential is more aligned with how the PAC ridge continues to develop in the short-term between the end of the week moving into the weekend and that will ultimately affect the heights down stream and determine where exactly the trough axis is located.  

 

I guess this system could screw with the heights over the western Atlantic, however, there is plenty of time between this departure and the weekend potential for the pattern across the western Atlantic to "re-configure" with the PAC ridge playing a dominant factor in the overall pattern

pretty much

 

I posted last nite how at 0z sat to 12z Saturday the top of the ridge is really flattened and that is hurting our chances for Sunday more so than any spacing concerns...unless that changes I see wide right

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GFS says NO to both storms.  Not good.  Our run is probably over and it would be ok as I'm currently writing and article on how this is in the Top 5 Greatest Winter Stretches along with 1920, 1948, 1969, and 1978.  When you get talked about with those BAD Bad Boys, no complaining is allowed.  Just the fact that we Could have gone for #1.  You only get this chance twice in a lifetime or so so that's the very sad part.  

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