40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Can see this one being a lt/ mod event with a better chance at sunday, Today should be more telling but I think tonight we have a good idea of the direction this goes I agree. Sunday is def. the larger potential....this is advisory to perhaps low end waring in se MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I mean just looking at the pattern since the 24th, the larger events have been Sun-Tues, and the smaller events have been Thurs-Fri. If that pattern continues you would think this would be more of a "minor event" and Sunday would be the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hate to say it, but you would have to think that even in an amplified pattern like this, at some point none of them will be the "big one." I, for one, don't scoff at advisory snowfall. I understand the snowpack records at stake and all, but weather doesn't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Banter thread guys. I moved previous posts there incl my own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Usually though with clippers and redeveloping clippers you have some pretty solid ratios associated with them...unless I'm wrong. I'm on the this is coming back west train, think were gonna get jiggy and diggy diggy with this S.W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm on the this is coming back west train, think were gonna get jiggy and diggy diggy with this S.W I think Thursday is Advisory to low-end warning. Sunday has greater potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm on the this is coming back west train, think were gonna get jiggy and diggy diggy with this S.W I think the opportunity is there to favor a quicker development further west...enough to perhaps prompt low-end warning snows across portions of eastern MA with higher end advisory snows back to I95 with lower west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm on the this is coming back west train, think were gonna get jiggy and diggy diggy with this S.WI dunno...the trends haven't exactly been encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think Thursday is Advisory to low-end warning. Sunday has greater potential. Agree, mainly because Sunday is 120 out and Thursday is building model consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think the opportunity is there to favor a quicker development further west...enough to perhaps prompt low-end warning snows across portions of eastern MA with higher end advisory snows back to I95 with lower west of 95. I'd rather the 18z GEFS, but at this point in the boxing match, we're in the 7'th round... we just knocked most communities to the canvas and they will probably be back off the mat Wednesday or Thursday, I would like a nice overhand bomb to send them reeling into the weekend....and that blow will render them nearly crippled..and there is potential on this one to go a bit higher. We just need this to dig further and the capture...that is still on the table. A follow up blow on Sunday will send most communities into a coma. Really uncharted territory if we get blasted next 7 days. I think the issues are not fully comprehended if we get another 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Agree, mainly because Sunday is 120 out and Thursday is building model consensus That, and you figure that with all of these events in such rapid succession. at some point the local atmosphere needs to regroup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I still like the look of it. Very energetic. Think there is definitely room for this to dig a bit more. Should have better sampling today, so the picture should resolve itself more clearly by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I've just about passed the pace of 1996, which had a relatively tame February.....have to think Boston has blown past it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I still like the look of it. Very energetic. Think there is definitely room for this to dig a bit more. Should have better sampling today, so the picture should resolve itself more clearly by tonight. 12z Euro today will tell the tale. Either we bang slightly or we boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That, and you figure that with all of these events in such rapid succession. at some point the local atmosphere needs to regroup. I'm pretty sure Will mentioned this last 3 day period was the break and we just happened to cash in during it. We are re-loading with that monster PNA ridge and the Trough is in prime position for E SNE to get unloaded on again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'd rather the 18z GEFS, but at this point in the boxing match, we're in the 7'th round... we just knocked most communities to the canvas and they will probably be back off the mat Wednesday or Thursday, I would like a nice overhand bomb to send them reeling into the weekend....and there is potential on this one to go a bit higher. We just need this to dig further and the capture...that is still on the table. One thing to consider in this type of situation is where the models EXACTLY develop the low and the placement of the low. Just looking at the 6z GFS and looking at variables such as 500mb winds, sfc winds, etc you could argue the low placement should actually be a bit further north than what's shown right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That, and you figure that with all of these events in such rapid succession. at some point the local atmosphere needs to regroup.I'll be perfectly honest - I have no idea how that works. But I always figured that anomalous pool of liquid h2o off the east coast of everywhere made that less of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 absolutely Wiz, I like our chances with Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm pretty sure Will mentioned this last 3 day period was the break and we just happened to cash in during it. We are re-loading with that monster PNA ridge and the Trough is in prime position for E SNE to get unloaded on again. Plus with potential PJ interaction the potential for another monster storm will be looming within the upcoming pattern...trough axis will be key as to whether we realize it or not but the 500mb pattern screams major cyclogenesis potential off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'll be perfectly honest - I have no idea how that works. But I always figured that anomalous pool of liquid h2o off the east coast of everywhere made that less of an issue. The issue isn't that the system wants for moisture, but rather the baroclinic zone gets temporarily shoved eastward in the wake of the recent barrage of impressive systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm pretty sure Will mentioned this last 3 day period was the break and we just happened to cash in during it. We are re-loading with that monster PNA ridge and the Trough is in prime position for E SNE to get unloaded on again. That isn't what I mean. See my last post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm on the this is coming back west train, think were gonna get jiggy and diggy diggy with this S.W I think this one may be a ratter. Will see at inits today I think...the more amped up models were overplaying the strength/slower....early on. Happens when stuff is coming from the polar regions. As they adjust this may kick even further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think this one may be a ratter. Will see at inits today I think...the more amped up models were overplaying the strength/slower....early on. Happens when stuff is coming from the polar regions. As they adjust this may kick even further east. Yea, not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Does seem like trof wants to go negative, but too late. Trends have been to the south and east so unless there is a drastic shift back west by later today I think we miss the bomb. Maybe 2-4?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Matt Noyes thinks 6"+ for CC and Islands and parts of SE interior MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The issue isn't that the system wants for moisture, but rather the baroclinic zone gets temporarily shoved eastward in the wake of the recent barrage of impressive systems. Is that necessarily an issue on Thursday? Didn't think the exiting system was all that disruptive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The issue isn't that the system wants for moisture, but rather the baroclinic zone gets temporarily shoved eastward in the wake of the recent barrage of impressive systems. Yes, This why its tough to go back to back over a couple days for big dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Is that necessarily an issue on Thursday? Didn't think the exiting system was all that disruptive. Thursday is or could be the issue for sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Is that necessarily an issue on Thursday? Didn't think the exiting system was all that disruptive. Please refer to the low pressure currently off the southeast/mid atlantic coast... THAT'S what's tugging off on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The potential is Huge with both systems...both are going to blossom into Monster Storms period. It's whether they do it in time for the area, or are OTS to our east. That's the only question here. We may very well miss both of these? I think alot of us(including myself) saw the incredible historic aspect of both of these, in the adding to our snowcover and impact to the area yesterday, but now the look and idea is for more of a glancing blow or miss with these(at least with the latest guidance). Ofcourse this could all change at noon, but that remains to be seen. The odds are tough for these to be a direct hit...which would send the area into the Biblical Realm...needless to say, that doesn't happen often to say the least!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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