Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 when do we ever again believe it's output, Do you have access to the Parallel New Nam? Basically it's up the the Euro to get on board, otherwise confidence in Thu-Fri has to be tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 would that be the same NAM that at t minus 60 hrs had PF raining for this storm? same NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 when do we ever again believe it's output, Do you have access to the Parallel New Nam? Yes and it is 100% accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nobody going to comment on how the NAM looks eerily similar to the 18z gfs? up at H5/, because the surface looked east of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nam looks nothing like gfs imo but I don't know much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 For what it's worth, the JMA is taking this puppy over ACK. There is hope yet NNEers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nobody going to comment on how the NAM looks eerily similar to the 18z gfs? The only thing I cared about with the NAM as it's useless? It supports the GFS on being slower through the Lakes versus the Euro which was hauling balls. That's good... at the same time it doesn't dig the s/w into the Baja like the Euro/GFS....so it won't form the same low those models do. BUT I think it's probably more critical that it's not as fast in the north...and it's just the nam sucking in the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Basically it's up the the Euro to get on board, otherwise confidence in Thu-Fri has to be tempered.that's where im at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 At hour 54 at the 500 level the NAM looked almost identical to the 18z run of the GFS. But hey who cares. It's only the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 At hour 54 at the 500 level the NAM looked almost identical to the 18z run of the GFS. But hey who cares. It's only the NAM Early on yea it looked similar at mid levels. But then at the end, it can never get going. It's suck anyway and prob better it doesn't show a hit Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 For what it's worth, the JMA is taking this puppy over ACK. There is hope yet NNEers.this would work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Did not dig as far south, Trough was still Neutral/Negative which kept the slp east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Early on yea it looked similar at mid levels. But then at the end, it can never get going. It's suck anyway and prob better it doesn't show a hit Lol. For the NAM at this range I think it's an impressive run. Has the telltale inverted trough signature....struggle here is it'll either be east with an inverted dingaling to the west, or a more powerful low west towards where some are modeling the dingaling trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Now we wait for the models that can count to 4 past 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The NAM was east of the 18z, but the precip shield was further west at 78 hr vs 84 hr and more intense, with .12 for MBY for the 3 hr period vs .03 at 18z. It's the trend that counts, even though it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Did not dig as far south, Trough was still Neutral/Negative which kept the slp east We've maybe already seen the western goalpost barring a big correction with an init once the features are all in data rich areas. Definitely will heavily favor coastal areas, and somehow Worcester will get 35" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We've maybe already seen the western goalpost barring a big correction with an init once the features are all in data rich areas. Definitely will heavily favor coastal areas, and somehow Worcester will get 35" too. If not tonight by tomorrow night we will all have a better idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If not tonight by tomorrow night we will all have a better idea Extreme solutions will fall one way or the other tonight. IE, we'll lose the far west blizzard or see the eastern ones work west to a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I hope we havent seen the western goalpost....it's another CJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I hope we havent seen the western goalpost....it's another CJ. What ends up swinging around into the base of the trough is actually at the very top center of this screen right now. Barely into even decent satellite coverage nevermind actual UA. Really looking at it, it's going to take another 12-24 hours before there will be a great fix on it. I think we see more consensus tonight for sure, but we're far from "decided"..... pure polar s/w. Look east of Alaska, east of the province that looks like a big Idaho...two big lake structures it's just above the northern one spinning down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS not going to do it this run I don't think? Just based on 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Now we wait for the models that can count to 4 past 48 hours Lolz good one.....GFS running..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS not going to do it this run I don't think? Just based on 33. 33? oes also on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah trough orientation suggests it will go east at hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 low at 38//72 at 72 hrs and BM around 75hrs.. sub 996mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS still looks great :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 so what's the deal......one says heading east ...other says at BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 41n/68 sub 984 at 81 nice hit for ema Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 so what's the deal......one says heading east ...other says at BM Yes, I was thinking the same thing! Nothing wrong with a BM track for SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 so what's the deal......one says heading east ...other says at BM It's east of the 18z run by 75-100 miles or so but still a very solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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