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2/12-13 Potential Coastal Storm Threat


Typhoon Tip

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Tell them lollis to 18" and you can always go higher

 

Start high and adjusted higher if needed. I mean seriously NNE is starting to fall behind SNE, Ekster doesn't like trailing BOS in seasonal snowfall.

 

Wasn't me :whistle:

 

I forget sometimes that a large part of our population gets BOS stations.

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Start high and adjusted higher if needed. I mean seriously NNE is starting to fall behind SNE, Ekster doesn't like trailing BOS in seasonal snowfall.

I forget sometimes that a large part of our population gets BOS stations.

It's a long race, I think Ekester pulls out the win on April 30th with a 2 foot tree crushing slop, beating out Boston 132-115 NBA score style.

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But I did get 10 to 1 ratios in this past storm. CT rarely sees more than 15 to 1 ratios for an entire storm and these windy ones really are like capped from 10 to 1 to as much as 14 to 1. Also only got 10 inches probably from this in 3 days, so 4-8 wasn't a bad call. Let me know when total QPF is over 2" on the models Ginxy. I'll start believing then. 

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I'd rather both.

Yup.  Greedy.

I think getting both will be tough. It's a spacing issue. I'd rather have a lull for like a week of temperatures under freezing and then a big BOOM that drops 2 to 3 feet on us all than another 8-14 inch fluff bomb and then a whiff out to sea. I think the big long lasting ones are special.

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I think getting both will be tough. It's a spacing issue. I'd rather have a lull for like a week of temperatures under freezing and then a big BOOM that drops 2 to 3 feet on us all than another 8-14 inch fluff bomb and then a whiff out to sea. I think the big long lasting ones are special.

 

I agree, It would be tough to get back to back bombs, Not enough recovery time

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I like that 967mb low on that member parked 10 minutes E of ACK ...   

 

12-18" of snow driven along in infrastructural grid failure winds for everyone E of HFD-EEN.... SE Mass denuded off the face of the planet ... comet impacts, dogs and cats sleeping together, Tip finding a g-f ... I mean, you name it: hell comes to Earth on that idea.

 

But, that all said, one thing this system has going for it, in my mind, is that it's too late to be wrong??  

 

What I mean by that, the nearer term guidance (through 48 and 72 hours) is going to be less likely very wrong as Lucifer's hammer comes thundering down out of the Canadian territories and over western Lakes.   That much mechanical power has got to be conserved ... to mention, getting a synoptic boost by the L/W axis parked along 75 or so W longitude; that much power is likely to built some S/W ridging out over the Atlantic/seen as bulge-correction in the isopleths running out immediately downstream the trough axis (I suspect going forward..);  but that subtlety will tend to feed back on a westerly solution in my mind.  

 

Also, on a more conceptual level ... the flow looks too stretched, which was a correction applied to the charts prior to the blizzard, and that correct turned out the course of least regret.  What all that means is... the ridge axis in the west is not progressive, so the R-wave arguments are that the deep layer trough in the E should reach its greatest depth/amplitude prior/along 75W ...not E of the coast like some of the eastern solutions appear to be. 

 

Anomalies relative to anomalies do take place from time to time, but for me, the better bet is bring this further west and deeper.  Which ... I know, is quite fortunate for the denizens of SNE that are so winter starved this season and would do anything imaginable just to see a flake of snow...

That is vintage Tip speak.  :lmao:

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You are a meteorologist. Does a model have to show it or do you look at the set up?

But I did get 10 to 1 ratios in this past storm. CT rarely sees more than 15 to 1 ratios for an entire storm and these windy ones really are like capped from 10 to 1 to as much as 14 to 1. Also only got 10 inches probably from this in 3 days, so 4-8 wasn't a bad call. Let me know when total QPF is over 2" on the models Ginxy. I'll start believing then.

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You are a meteorologist. Does a model have to show it or do you look at the set up?

 

A model can show what it wants, but I like looking at the setup for indications what should happen. I think it is pretty easy from Tip's posts to Will's posts that with the PNA shooting strongly positive and the western Ridge pumping up that we should get 1 out of the 2 next threats. I would call it very unlucky if both of them miss.

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I like that 967mb low on that member parked 10 minutes E of ACK ...   

 

12-18" of snow driven along in infrastructural grid failure winds for everyone E of HFD-EEN.... SE Mass denuded off the face of the planet ... comet impacts, dogs and cats sleeping together, Tip finding a g-f ... I mean, you name it: hell comes to Earth on that idea.

 

But, that all said, one thing this system has going for it, in my mind, is that it's too late to be wrong??  

 

What I mean by that, the nearer term guidance (through 48 and 72 hours) is going to be less likely very wrong as Lucifer's hammer comes thundering down out of the Canadian territories and over western Lakes.   That much mechanical power has got to be conserved ... to mention, getting a synoptic boost by the L/W axis parked along 75 or so W longitude; that much power is likely to built some S/W ridging out over the Atlantic/seen as bulge-correction in the isopleths running out immediately downstream the trough axis (I suspect going forward..);  but that subtlety will tend to feed back on a westerly solution in my mind.  

 

Also, on a more conceptual level ... the flow looks too stretched, which was a correction applied to the charts prior to the blizzard, and that correct turned out the course of least regret.  What all that means is... the ridge axis in the west is not progressive, so the R-wave arguments are that the deep layer trough in the E should reach its greatest depth/amplitude prior/along 75W ...not E of the coast like some of the eastern solutions appear to be. 

 

Anomalies relative to anomalies do take place from time to time, but for me, the better bet is bring this further west and deeper.  Which ... I know, is quite fortunate for the denizens of SNE that are so winter starved this season and would do anything imaginable just to see a flake of snow...

This is art

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Way too early yet. It's all conceptual I don't even think it's possible to track back.

Meanwhile we're looking at a day or more of OES over EMA which will be a pita to keep roads clear etc.

If its not the first it's the second or third or maybe all 3, don't know how many more times nature has to disprove the can't get back to back storm myth. Spacing is fine,these aren't stalled systems
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Enough bickering these are festive times. Fairy tale, folklore snow lets enjoy it to the fullest. More threats looming Im hoping the variance in outcomes narrows some more with the 00Z suite.

 

Two straight weeks average double digit temp departures, snow depth consistently over 20" around here, and picked up a +30 departure on seasonal snowfall. Wintry appeal.

 

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