Winter201415 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS 18z came west about 75 miles. Good sign... Is it a trend? We shall see Edit: I wouldn't be surprised if this trended another 150 miles west with that positive pna trying to hook it right back towards it the coast. that would technically give the cape rain! But we could get heavy heavy snow 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Every other time the GFS has been west of the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC this winter with coastals it shifted more east to those model positions under 60 hrs. This would be a first for the GFS if it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Every other time the GFS has been west of the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC this winter it shifted more east to those model positions under 60 hrs. u bring a good point but at this point it's just speculative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Solid hit out here to say the least on 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Every other time the GFS has been west of the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC this winter with coastals it shifted more east to those model positions under 60 hrs. This would be a first for the GFS if it is correct. I'm not going to debate that--but looking at this event in particular - all models have been trending west since 0z last night, except the Ukie I believe. The GFS has been performing very well as of late. It's possible that it's ahead of the game and others are playing catch up. With that said, I don't like going with any solution that stands alone, GFS included--so we'll need to see other models trend toward it or confidence will remain very low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm not going to debate that--but looking at this event in particular - all models have been trending west since 0z last night, except the Ukie I believe. i feel like the ukie is too far east with coastals an than aways too far north with swfe...ive never been as impressed with that model as some people have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 u bring a good point but at this point it's just speculative. Any surface low position past 48 hrs this winter is speculative. They should do a new version of 48 hrs just featuring the weather models this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 i feel like the ukie is too far east with coastals an than aways too far north with swfe...ive never been as impressed with that model as some people haveits an okay model. The most overrated imo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 The part I like the most about this threat is that its trending favorably within 5 days, not 10. That's usually a good sign, JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Any surface low position past 48 hrs this winter is speculative. They should do a new version of 48 hrs just featuring the weather models this winter. At least we don't have to worry about a phase...all in how amped up the energy is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm not going to debate that--but looking at this event in particular - all models have been trending west since 0z last night, except the Ukie I believe. The GFS has been performing very well as of late. It's possible that it's ahead of the game and others are playing catch up. With that said, I don't like going with any solution that stands alone, GFS included--so we'll need to see other models trend toward it or confidence will remain very low... The difference here is looking t the teleconnections. The s/w will be sampled at 0z (I believe it's on land in time)(edit) and the PNA is sky rocketing to a forecast +4sd. The EPO is crashing in this time frame as well as the NAO trending neutral. The AO I would really like to see it start moving towards neutral before believing the forecast ensembles on it showing ~neutral for this time frame. As jbenedet also pointed out, this s/w is going to be laden with energy and as such, other dynamics are introduced into the mix. The PNA itself could very easily get this done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 WPC verification for today's system http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/verification/mode/mode.php#page=page-1 just something to keep in mind with regards to QPF output and this was within a 24 hr window...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 At least we don't have to worry about a phase...all in how amped up the energy is Yeah, it's refreshing not to have to be concerned with P-Types for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah, it's refreshing not to have to be concerned with P-Types for a change. Also you have to consider the fact that one of the main problems the gfs has had with east coast storms is "not handling the phase properly"...i have heard that alot and this time there is no phase and the gfs is known to be better with northern stream systems...just something to consider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The weather can be so frustrating at times...knowing we remain 60+ hours from the start of the storm. But the optimism here has been enjoyable, and hopefully we can get in on the blizzard like snows Boston's receiving. What's going on up there is unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's beyond frustrating to watch NYC's natural enemy cash in time and time again, but we all should admit that the "chase" is half the fun. At least we have things of interest to follow. The first half of the year was BORING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS 12Z / 18Z 96hr precip accum comp-fwiw http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 hope you guys get it good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 hope you guys get it good!! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 hope you guys get it good!! Epic stretch for you guys up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 New 18z has about 0.5" LE at EWR, and at 15:1 we are talking 7"-8"...Ill take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Didn't see this posted, but the 12z high res Ukie (from WxBell) takes a track (and strength) very similar to the 18z GFS. Gives NYC, LI, and CT about 3-5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=canada-ir-48 you might like this loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/rapmeso/index.php?type=US-500vora-25 take a look as she comes in ....off the PAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=canada-ir-48 you might like this loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/rapmeso/index.php?type=US-500vora-25 take a look as she comes in ....off the PAC Looks like the models might have a better handle on the energy once making complete landfall at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=canada-ir-48 you might like this loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/rapmeso/index.php?type=US-500vora-25 take a look as she comes in ....off the PAC It's not loading on my iPad. Does it work better on a PC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It's not loading on my iPad. Does it work better on a PC? M http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/ try direct link then click on the RAP Mesoanalysis Products from the menu if you still have bugs..pm me dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 good luck with this pattern... and your model of choice PAC 200mb set-up 7:00pm EDT Recco Non-tasked flight path Feb. 9th 23:25Z http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/eastpac/winds/wg9dlm6.GIF http://www.tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=ep&nontasked=2015 the flight crews have been working hard for us this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Anyone gonna do the NAM pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Anyone gonna do the NAM pbp? I'm only out to hr 24, still to early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'll take a wild stab . . . Boston gets 2' and we get 2 flakes and .25 of freezing rain. Edit: I'm just joking. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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