allgame830 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Upton's not wild about any of these threats. AN ACTIVE UPPER NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY...AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND AN ALL LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WITH THE STORM QUICK MOVING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THE HIGH QUICKLY WEAKENS AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND TRACKS WEST AND SOUTH...MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS LOW...WITH RATHER LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR WILL BE RE ENFORCED BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND...AND APPROACHING ZERO NEAR THE COAST. That is from earlier... they should update shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z NAM is tantalizing still only a 2-4" type deal for most, but neg tilt trough with low on the delmarva/Va capes... Its a whisper away from something much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z NAM is tantalizing still only a 2-4" type deal for most, but neg tilt trough with low on the delmarva/Va capes... Its a whisper away from something much more. Nam is a total miss.. Dusting at best, where u see 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Nam is a total miss.. Dusting at best, where u see 2-4The .25 line is very close to the city, it's probably about 2-3 for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Long Island HIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Long Island TOTAL HIT What about here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The artist formally known as yanksfanFunny you mention him. Where is he this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's all about that PNA can it amplify enough to make up for the AO deficiency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Actually think the chances of this coming west are much greater than east...PNA should get the job done and all other teleconnections look favorable except the NAO which is marginal but at least neutral. The Ridge axis being as far west as it is tells me this shortwave should have time and space to come more poleward before heading east . I like this threat way more than the one a couple of days later, I think it's this one or the other one misses, the positioning of everything looks way more favorable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What about here..... 2-4" for most of the area...less well NW, more Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What about here.....About and inch or 2, the .25 line extends into Monmouth county and runs NEward towards the eastern part of the city, LI will get a lot more if extrapolated (I know I know...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Upton's not wild about any of these threats. I think that increases the likelihood of at least one of them happening . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I like this threat way more than the one a couple of days later, I think it's this one or the other one misses, the positioning of everything looks way more favorable to me Agree the high position and the exiting low position (todays storm) look very good for this one...We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Funny you mention him. Where is he this winter? He's everywhere bro lol.. New name is isosentrpoic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The NAM is almost a Euro/GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Point One red line enhanced for clarity a track on the north side of this guidance is not that unreasonable ATM- imo Point Two-small red circles that is an amazing spread for the Outlier locations just 72 hrs out This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution For Official Information please refer to the WPC and NWS products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Lol see what I'm talking about. We get a nuisance 2-4 on this run. LI gets pretty much hit hard. I would agree seperate threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What about here..... It looks to be on Long Island , these SW like to deepen and head towards SNE . It is the NAM AT 84 hours , it is not the guidance of choice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 CIPs analogs don't offer much help, most setups at 500 are not useful analogs because the trof is too broad and the low formed way offshore, 3/8/05 may be the closest match but that was probably a bit more amplified than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif OPC 96hr prog 984mb Swinging thru the Benchmark 40N/70W ESRL -fringe http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What is the link to Upton so i can manually go on there and check updates. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What is the link to Upton so i can manually go on there and check updates. Thanks! http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter http://www.weather.gov/okx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z gfs has .25 back to ttn now and .5 to nyc...much more for LI and sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z gfs has .25 back to ttn now and .5 to nyc...much more for LI and sne so a big hit for a lot of ppl pretty much with ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Solid hit for Long Island on 18z GFS at 84hrs. Couple inches for west of city at 78hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z gfs has .25 back to ttn now and .5 to nyc...much more for LI and sne .75 is touching Queens and SWCT as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Wayyyyyy too early to derive anything from these models. Take what it shows and shift it north 200 miles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Wayyyyyy too early to derive anything from these models. Take what it shows and shift it north 200 miles . banter crap. this isnt a SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Wayyyyyy too early to derive anything from these models. Take what it shows and shift it north 200 miles . This is nothing like the past two systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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