allgame830 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The 12z GFS has 6.2" at LGA on 0.42" LE and and 7.5" at JFK with on 0.52" LE ISP is the big winner with 9.7" on 0.64" LE. Is that for the Thursday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 EWR? 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Is that for the Thursday storm? Si Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 EWR? 4.8" on 0.33" LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Si OK thanks... definitely was getting confusing before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 How about Monmouth? ATLH is 4.7" on 0.47" LE. Actually shows a rain/snow mix there hours 78-81 as the surface peaks at 33.9F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What do you guys Think about coastal Monmouth county? Mixing issues or all snow? The weather channel got us at 38F for a high with snow for Thursday? How much liquid for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 KTLH is 4.7" on 0.47" LE. Actually shows a rain/snow mix there hours 78-81 as the surface peaks at 33.9F. Thats FLORIDA= TALLAHASSE I THINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 KTLH is 4.7" on 0.47" LE. Actually shows a rain/snow mix there hours 78-81 as the surface peaks at 33.9F. ? Tallahassee Regional Airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 ? Tallahassee Regional Airport No, it's actually ATLH which I believe is the base on Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What do you guys Think about coastal Monmouth county? Mixing issues or all snow? The weather channel got us at 38F for a high with snow for Thursday? How much liquid for this area? Snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What do you guys Think about coastal Monmouth county? Mixing issues or all snow? The weather channel got us at 38F for a high with snow for Thursday? How much liquid for this area? You're not the only one. As of now, all the forecasting agencies have my area (SW Nassau) at anywhere between 35 and 38F. AW is the coldest, with TWC the warmest. The NWS is in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 No, it's actually ATLH which I believe is the base on Sandy Hook. He probably uses KBLM as a ref , but he`s west of there , so he does not mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You're not the only one. As of now, all the forecasting agencies have my area (SW Nassau) at anywhere between 35 and 38F. AW is the coldest, with TWC the warmest. The NWS is in the middle. lol dont worry about that its not going to rain in this setup up with the cold air available to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 No, it's actually ATLH which I believe is the base on Sandy Hook. NOPE but thanks anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 He probably uses KBLM as a ref , but he`s west of there , so he does not mix Oh, the site I use doesn't have KBLM. I gave him the only Monmouth County site that I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think this clipper will redevelop much faster than forecasted by these models. In fact I also think this will be a moderate snow event even for north New Jersey and philly. Nyc up to Suffolk look to be the bullseye here only because a strong positive pna will sling this low pressure much more west than depicted resulting heaviest snow from nyc to Suffolk county. This should be a very dynamic storm but a quick mover. Expect a benchmark track and 980 millibar storm around the benchmark. I expect this to be a foot or more for nyc and east. Wow - you are really going out on a limb here fella - without a neg AO ? Progressive pattern and most of the storms this winter in NYC immediate metro have been underachievers and the pattern hasn't changed much since - so I disagree strongly - this will once again be a New England special and we only get grazed with the leftover as usual........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 NOPE but thanks anyway Rossi , don`t worry about amounts . These SW are dicey , they like to deepen to our NE and favor SNE . It will depend on where this comes off and how close it deepens . You will need a little time to figure that out . You should see some snow but accumulations this far out are just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 lol dont worry about that its not going to rain in this setup up with the cold air available to the north I'm not worried. This winter has been very bizarre so I just take 3-day forecasts in stride. Still, it's enough to make me wonder what people -- here and at the forecasting agencies -- are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I understand all the things that could go wrong with this setup - and NYC has largely been shafted - but I'm going to shed my typical realism and go with optimism in an attempt to get big snows into NYC. I have no scientific basis for believing this storm will hit, only that we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 NOPE but thanks anyway Well I don't know where it is then. I just know that it's in coastal Monmouth County StnID: atlh Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 150209/1500Z 3 05018KT 28.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.018 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.02 0| 0|100 150209/1800Z 6 04018KT 30.3F SNPL 1:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.007 1:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.03 20| 80| 0 150209/2100Z 9 04020KT 31.9F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 3:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 150210/0000Z 12 03016KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 3:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.03 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150210/0300Z 15 03016KT 29.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 150210/0600Z 18 03016KT 26.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.04 0| 0| 0 150210/0900Z 21 04016KT 26.5F SNOW 4:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 150210/1200Z 24 04016KT 26.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.05 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150210/1500Z 27 03016KT 27.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.05 0| 0| 0 150210/1800Z 30 03014KT 30.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150210/2100Z 33 03014KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150211/0000Z 36 02017KT 31.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150211/0300Z 39 03015KT 30.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150211/0600Z 42 02016KT 27.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150211/0900Z 45 02016KT 24.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150211/1200Z 48 03016KT 22.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150211/1500Z 51 04014KT 24.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150211/1800Z 54 04012KT 26.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150211/2100Z 57 03010KT 25.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150212/0000Z 60 05009KT 23.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150212/0300Z 63 03006KT 22.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150212/0600Z 66 04006KT 20.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150212/0900Z 69 04006KT 21.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150212/1200Z 72 09007KT 24.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150212/1500Z 75 13007KT 30.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 150212/1800Z 78 16009KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 55| 0| 45 150212/2100Z 81 VRB02KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 28| 0| 72 150213/0000Z 84 01013KT 31.2F SNOW 12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150213/0300Z 87 34019KT 27.2F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 13:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 150213/0600Z 90 32028KT 20.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 14:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0 150213/0900Z 93 31026KT 14.3F SNOW 27:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 15:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 150213/1200Z 96 30026KT 10.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 15:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Weekend threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Weekend threat. euro144.png Wrong thread, there is a separate one for the weekend storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Summarizing 12z Guidance Thu (2/12) GFS: Moderate snows more east GGEM : Light to moderate Hit ECM: Light snow UKMET: Mainly a miss GEFS" Light to Moderate ECM Ensembles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Wrong thread, there is a separate one for the weekend storm threat. Don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Don't see it. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45647-presidents-day-weekend-2015-storm-potential-214-215/page-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Never heard that phrase before... Exactly what I was thinking .. higher amounts East .. rinse .. repeat for the past 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Actually think the chances of this coming west are much greater than east...PNA should get the job done and all other teleconnections look favorable except the NAO which is marginal but at least neutral. The Ridge axis being as far west as it is tells me this shortwave should have time and space to come more poleward before heading east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Upton's not wild about any of these threats. AN ACTIVE UPPER NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY...AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND AN ALL LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WITH THE STORM QUICK MOVING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THE HIGH QUICKLY WEAKENS AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND TRACKS WEST AND SOUTH...MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS LOW...WITH RATHER LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR WILL BE RE ENFORCED BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND...AND APPROACHING ZERO NEAR THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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