MJO812 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 regardless I doubt we go above freezing on Thursday! Nws is not that good to be honest. They've been busting a lot lately. At one point they had me in the upper 30s for today. I'm in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Look at the differences in surface temps just between the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS. The synoptic setup makes a big difference. 12z those are valid for completely different days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Look at the differences in surface temps just between the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS. The synoptic setup makes a big difference. 12z One map is for 18z Mon the other is for 18z Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah my bad, as it turns out temps are equally as cold come Thursday night. You have to be careful with point and click forecasts. They are mostly computer generated and use a blend of all guidance. Then the forecaster tweaks them as they see fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Whatz the GGEM look like QPF wise for NYC/NE NJ? Similar to GFS, around 0.25" or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Whatz the GGEM look like QPF wise for NYC/NE NJ? Similar to GFS, around 0.25" or so? Yes .25. It develops the coastal storm a bit further offshore but still manages to give E LI a good hit and slam E MA once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Whatz the GGEM look like QPF wise for NYC/NE NJ? Similar to GFS, around 0.25" or so? .25" line begins near Sandy Hook, NJ. NYC is about .30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Hopefully the EURO is west some, but at this point, if we can get a solid 2-4" and then some bigger later on the weekend, Ill be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Gefs mean looks good for 2-4 type deal nyc...less towards nnj by yanksfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Honestly, I really won't be very excited if the Euro is further west especially after the late January blizzard debacle from the city on west. Talk about what seems to be every factor going against wanting to give the city west a significant/major snowstorm. If its not one thing its another, we just can't win this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Gefs mean looks good for 2-4 type deal nyc...less towards nnj by yanksfan A bunch of people have no idea who you're even referring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Honestly, I really won't be very excited if the Euro is further west especially after the late January blizzard debacle from the city on west. Talk about what seems to be every factor going against wanting to give the city west a significant/major snowstorm. If its not one thing its another, we just can't win this year. Come and get some dude, I've got plenty to spare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The artist formally known as yanksfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The euro is probably gonna show a big hit only to backtrack Wednesday 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think this clipper will redevelop much faster than forecasted by these models. In fact I also think this will be a moderate snow event even for north New Jersey and philly. Nyc up to Suffolk look to be the bullseye here only because a strong positive pna will sling this low pressure much more west than depicted resulting heaviest snow from nyc to Suffolk county. This should be a very dynamic storm but a quick mover. Expect a benchmark track and 980 millibar storm around the benchmark. I expect this to be a foot or more for nyc and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The Euro is sharper with the trough through 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think this clipper will redevelop much faster than forecasted by these models. In fact I also think this will be a moderate snow event even for north New Jersey and philly. Nyc up to Suffolk look to be the bullseye here only because a strong positive pna will sling this low pressure much more west than depicted resulting heaviest snow from nyc to Suffolk county. This should be a very dynamic storm but a quick mover. Expect a benchmark track and 980 millibar storm around the benchmark. I expect this to be a foot or more for nyc and east. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think this clipper will redevelop much faster than forecasted by these models. In fact I also think this will be a moderate snow event even for north New Jersey and philly. Nyc up to Suffolk look to be the bullseye here only because a strong positive pna will sling this low pressure much more west than depicted resulting heaviest snow from nyc to Suffolk county. This should be a very dynamic storm but a quick mover. Expect a benchmark track and 980 millibar storm around the benchmark. I expect this to be a foot or more for nyc and east. I like your confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This is banter No, it's model discussion. I am referencing past model runs and their associated biases based on factual information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Light snow Thursday morning, secondary off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Better then 00z...but just to progressive. LI Looks to be around 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Whiff for sne also...long island and cape do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Better then 00z...but just to progressive. LI Looks to be around 2-4 Yeah, the Euro matches closer to the non-GFS guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah, the Euro matches closer to the non-GFS guidance. Sv maps 2-4 nyc east 1-2 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Deosn't close off until it's almost into Canada. Just scrapes SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think models will have a better idea once this current system moves out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Can only hope the GFS is up to it's bias of doing better with northern stream systems. If it's not, it's out to lunch as the western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think models will have a better idea once this current system moves outlook for the western trend by tomorrow afternoon and the model that should begin that trend should be the nam. although useless it has been okay with these Alberta clippers. I think this will end up being NYC's biggest snowfall this season. Tomorrow afternoon guys look for the trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Can only hope the GFS is up to it's bias of doing better with northern stream systems. If it's not, it's out to lunch as the western outlier. GGEM/NAM along with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 HELLO HOUR 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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