bluewave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 12z UKMET off meteociel looks further east than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 trend tu es ur friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I feel like I've seen a similar map a few times this year, huh? I think what we all want is to see this thing show quicker explosive development. At this point, we need to see the precip shield very expansive far to our NW, otherwise these storms are just going to keep jackpotting Boston and hammering ELI/SNEwe need a -AO to slow these systems down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 12z UKMET off meteociel looks further east than GFS. It could have taken a different trajectory though in between hours 72 and 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Another heartbreaker coming West of NYC. Probably not as bad as the blizzard screwjob, but looks like a few inches while Long Island measures in feet. I think many would be happy with a 2-4, 3-6 type deal-this is coming out of nowhere so let's take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It could have taken a different trajectory though in between hours 72 and 96. Yes, it looks like the secondary develops further SE than the GFS and ends up further east at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Miller B systems make me sick, rarely does anyone west of Suffolk get big hits, they always seem to develop a hair too late/NE. I donlike where the GFS is going with that, H5 looks good and a slight improvement may have at least half the board in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Almost unbelievable And likely another 1-2 feet next Monday. If verifies, it will become their snowiest winter ever and just imagine....all in one month.....100 inches, if the two storms come to fruition. 100 inches of snow in a month.......wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Another 974 blizzard for Boston would just epic. Statistically more likely then the 9/10 mid Atlantic snowmaggedon. Boston is in a great place for snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Miller B systems make me sick, rarely does anyone west of Suffolk get big hits, they always seem to develop a hair too late/NE. I donlike where the GFS is going with that, H5 looks good and a slight improvement may have at least half the board in business. The Miller B storms that work for NYC are the ones that have an -AO/-NAO pattern. Two of the storms in feb 2010 were miller b's. They developed further south and closed off south of LI thanks to fhe blocking upstream. We don't have that pattern in place, so New England will continue to be the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 we need a -AO to slow these systems down Hopefully we can steal one of these big storms from this pattern before winter's up. On the maps, the storms and their precip shields are the equivalent of making a turn and driving after you see someone you know without enough time to stop. Boston is that person they always seem to pass once on the main road. One of the worst analogies ever for one of the most frustrating patterns.....not because we don't get much snow, but because we just miss a ton of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Ggem closes h5 over Pa. Mod snow over the area for a while. LI and SNE crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Ggem closes h5 over Pa. Mod snow over the area for a while. LI and SNE crushed good to see...making the euro run all the more exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 what's the AO look like going into this storm? Severely postive or closer to neutral? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 what's the AO look like going into this storm? Severely postive or closer to neutral? positive...but closer to neutral than severly positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The Boxing day blizzard did not have downstream blocking. What it did have is a very amped synoptic setup, just like this storm. The difference, currently is, Boxing Day closed off East of Montauk, this wants to close East of Cape Cod. I'm not saying we will have the same outcome, but I'm bringing up the boxing day blizzard to make an important point: blocking isn't imperative for a big hit further inland. But if you lack blocking, you MUST have a very explosive setup such as what we currently have. It is possible for this to close off even sooner--just watch the trends.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The Boxing day blizzard did not have downstream blocking. What it did have is a very amped synoptic setup, just like this storm. The difference, currently is, Boxing Day closed off East of Montauk, this wants to close East of Cape Cod. I'm not saying we will have the same outcome, but I'm bringing up the boxing day blizzard to make an important point: blocking isn't imperative for a big hit further inland. But if you lack blocking, you MUST have a very explosive setup such as what we currently have. It is possible for this to close off even sooner--just watch the trends.... What factors would aid in this closing off sooner? Stronger jet? Deeper trough? More energized vort? What synoptic players made the Boxing Day storm close off sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GGEM more progressive than GFS as storm deepens slower and position more NE at 96 hrs in GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The Boxing day blizzard did not have downstream blocking. What it did have is a very amped synoptic setup, just like this storm. The difference, currently is, Boxing Day closed off East of Montauk, this wants to close East of Cape Cod. I'm not saying we will have the same outcome, but I'm bringing up the boxing day blizzard to make an important point: blocking isn't imperative for a big hit further inland. But if you lack blocking, you MUST have a very explosive setup such as what we currently have. It is possible for this to close off even sooner--just watch the trends.... The way this gets closer to the coast is there is a retrograding SLP out of the BAJA , it helps pump the ridge and creates height falls closer on the EC . The further west the ridge can get you can pull the trough axis back to the coast and then it comes down to can you close this off 3 hours earlier to get the more people on the board . As of right now its favoring the coast- Long Island and central and eastern CT , but its not as far off as one would think . The GEM was not terrible . I would not call .25- .50 at KNYC through minus 8 to 10 air a whiff . We are close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What factors would aid in this closing off sooner? Stronger jet? Deeper trough? More energized vort? What synoptic players made the Boxing Day storm close off sooner? Well all of the above. But really what I'd like to see is the coastal form a little sooner/further south west which through positive feedback and latent heat release would allow this to mature faster and move closer to the coast... We just saw this trend on the gfs , 12z vs 6z. One more bump like that, and it changes a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 We've seen significant short term changes in modeling this winter once the prior storm has exited stage right. It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next two days. A lot of potential, as has been said, especially for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Well all of the above. But really what I'd like to see is the coastal form a little sooner/further south west which through positive feedback and latent heat release would allow this to mature faster and move closer to the coast... We just saw this trend on the gfs , 12z vs 6z. One more bump like that, and it changes a lot. So there is realistic hope. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I saw a few people mention snow ratios. I see Upton and Mount Holly are forecasting high temps in the mid to upper 30s on Thursday. How would snow ratios be better than average with temps that warm? Seems like they would not be that great if the snow falls during the day. Maybe a different story if it falls Thursday night when it's colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GGEM is a couple of inches for the City while a lot more for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I saw a few people mention snow ratios. I see Upton and Mount Holly are forecasting high temps in the mid to upper 30s on Thursday. How would snow ratios be better than average with temps that warm? Seems like they would not be that great if the snow falls during the day. Maybe a different story if it falls Thursday night when it's colder? pls dont look at the nws serivce temps...especially this far out...they had me with a high of 38 a few days ago for tday and im at 23 degrees rn those temperatures are way to high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I saw a few people mention snow ratios. I see Upton and Mount Holly are forecasting high temps in the mid to upper 30s on Thursday. How would snow ratios be better than average with temps that warm? Seems like they would not be that great if the snow falls during the day. Maybe a different story if it falls Thursday night when it's colder? that's before the storm, once the storm forms, it will yank in the colder air to the north-which is quite bitter, temps would crash once the storm cranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Forky is right, and it is pretty depressing honestly... IF we had blocking with these clippers barreling south one after another we'd be looking at an epic stretch to match any, instead, it looks like we'll probably be on the outside looking in from the main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 As far south as the clipper does dig, there is nothing to slow it down...The storm out the in the atlantic actually helps a bit, but its not the same as blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 that's before the storm, once the storm forms, it will yank in the colder air to the north-which is quite bitter, temps would crash once the storm cranks.regardless I doubt we go above freezing on Thursday! Nws is not that good to be honest. They've been busting a lot lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I saw a few people mention snow ratios. I see Upton and Mount Holly are forecasting high temps in the mid to upper 30s on Thursday. How would snow ratios be better than average with temps that warm? Seems like they would not be that great if the snow falls during the day. Maybe a different story if it falls Thursday night when it's colder? Look at the differences in surface temps just between the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS. The synoptic setup makes a big difference. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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