Saturn510 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Closed off when 18z did not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Closed off when 18z did not Correct but the initial being East is what killed us, the low redevelops but it's too late and very unorganised aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yup. This needs to be a quicker amplification of the low based on the positioning of the trough. We don't have much time/leeway for this. It's not a complete miss or that far off right now, so you can't be discouraged if it's not showing what you want (ie, bigger storm/snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well, now we await the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 0-2 so far. If the gfs goes east this threat it most likely done...as we hope for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Correct but the initial being East is what killed us, the low redevelops but it's too late and very unorganised aloft Late, but shows a 22mb drop in pressure from 0z to 12z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 0-2 so far. If the gfs goes east this threat it most likely done...as we hope for Saturday We might be in for one of the pick'em type setups. If this storm blows up, it probably pollutes the Sat/Sun opportunity. If this gets out of the way enough and positions itself optimally as a 50/50 we might be in for a surprise in the Sun. period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 although east the nam looks very similar to 18z GFS at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 0-2 so far. If the gfs goes east this threat it most likely done...as we hope for Saturday it's a western outlier, so hard to imagine it being further west...bet it corrects east and by a fair amount. Late, but shows a 22mb drop in pressure from 0z to 12z Friday. if we miss this, maybe it becomes the 50-50 low to slow down the weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 0-2 so far. If the gfs goes east this threat it most likely done...as we hope for SaturdayI'm liking this threat much more than Saturday. Imho, it's this hit or nothing. The teleconnections for Sunday aren't favorable. They are much more favorable for this Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nam is a basic 1-3" verbatim for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 it's a western outlier, so hard to imagine it being further west...bet it corrects east and by a fair amount. if we miss this, maybe it becomes the 50-50 low to slow down the weekend storm That's a possibility. A few of the Mets have brought it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 0-2 so far. If the gfs goes east this threat it most likely done...as we hope for Saturday don't think you can really count srefs for the 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nam is a basic 1-3" verbatim for most No one should take what the Nam says seriously especially this far out. I'm far more curious if the gfs at least maintains from its last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 No one should take what the Nam says seriously especially this far out. I'm far more curious if the gfs at least maintains from its last run. In All seriousness I'm not taking any particular model serious anymore this season, I'll see each model and look for any trend I can.. They've all been terrible in their own respects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 In All seriousness I'm not taking any particular model serious anymore this season, I'll see each model and look for any trend I can.. They've all been terrible in their own respectsnam is just a whack model. Honestly they should retire it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 nam is just a whack model. Honestly they should retire it Why? It recognized the north trend on the last two storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Why? It recognized the north trend on the last two storms.not really. It had the storm up in Montreal. Imo nam is the worst model out there! It just doesn't do a good job with any storm! Heck it had 53 inches of snow for Nassau for the "blizzard" lol that model is a joke bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 not really. It had the storm up in Montreal. Imo nam is the worst model out there! It just doesn't do a good job with any storm! Heck it had 53 inches of snow for Nassau for the "blizzard" lol that model is a joke bud! All I said was trend, not specifics. Let's see what the GFS and euro do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Why? It recognized the north trend on the last two storms. It also said we would get 2 feet of snow less than 18 hrs before the storm began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It also said we would get 2 feet of snow less than 18 hrs before the storm began. Point taken. I'm still betting the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 2/10 00Z Guidance Summary; Thu (2/12) - Fri (2/13) Storm Threat NYC region ( CNJ - NYC/LI)- QPF SREF: <0.05 NAM : 0.05 - 0.10 (more LI) GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Any news on gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Any news on gfs? GFS isn't even past 12hrs, give it about 20 min or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 00z GFS starts out more progressive but by hour 51 it's actually more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Who would have imagined that more progressive you say lol theme of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS looks very likely to shift east based on the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS is gonna be similar to NAM, decent at H5 but not gonna develop quick enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like overall the trough just swings East quicker, despite the actual energy being more amplified. Light snow on Thursday so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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