EasternLI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Hoping to bring some good juju to the area 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Minus 10 at 850 . The BL is in the teens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Hoping to bring some good juju to the area 6z GFS 6zgfs.gif ..maybe another 'east end special' ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The jersey and lower Hudson valley folks are really going to HATE this storm -the one effecting us right now- if it's responsible for shifting the baroclinic zone too far east for them to see appreciable snows from this upcoming event as is currently being depicted on the GFS... People west of the coast really need to see our current storm eject faster to the north east, because without that --even as a Miller B-- this setup would be dynamic enough for rapid cyclogenesis and moderate effects to be felt much further inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah, another Long Island to SNE special, fantastic. Winter trully does pick one area to clobber each year. This year LI and NE are the big winners. I'm sure Long Island will figure out a way to get the most snow tonight as well. Still have about a 10" snowpack out here so I can't complain. The combination of sleet and freezing rain today has made the pack even more durable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 it will probably screw a good deal of western sne too just like the blizzard did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's really central and eastern LI that are winning big this year. Western LI has been doing well but we had 15" in the blizzard where as eastern had up to 30". I would like this to get into the city. Although it's going to be brutal cold for doing snow removal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Some HUGE hits for SNE on the 6z ensembles, they might have to shut down Boston if P002 occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 even with only .30-.40 across the western portions of CWA with high ratios we could still see a light to moderate event.. any snow will just keep adding to the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The models can't tell how much snow we get until it is literally right upon us so who knows about 3 days from now, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 even with only .30-.40 across the western portions of CWA with high ratios we could still see a light to moderate event.. any snow will just keep adding to the snowpack. If you're a glass half full kinda guy, that's great, but in my opinion, a "light to a moderate event" in what looks to be arguably the best synoptic setup of the season thus far, would be a significant disappointment. Regardless looking at qpf totals at this point is really not that instructive. Nothing is set in stone, and that's particularly true for qpf totals, as that is very difficult for models to resolve. And everyone in this forum is hoping this comes west as p-type issues are irrelevant, even for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 If you're a glass half full kinda guy, that's great, but in my opinion, a "light to a moderate event" in what looks to be arguably the best synoptic setup of the season, would be a significant dissapointment. Regardless looking at qpf totals at this point is really not that instructive. Nothing is set in stone, and that's particularly true for qpf totals, as that is very difficult for models to resolve. And everyone in this forum is hoping this comes west as p-type issues are irrelevant, even for the coast. So interesting you say this is the best synoptic set up of the season ( arguably) even better than the blizzard that wasnt ( east of Suffolk)? What makes it so, would love to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Regardless looking at qpf totals at this point is really not that instructive. Nothing is set in stone, and that's particularly true for qpf totals, as that is very difficult for models to resolve. And everyone in this forum is hoping this comes west as p-type issues are irrelevant, even for the coast. I know this will likely change, but the NWS has snow/rain for Thursday with a high of 36F for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 If you're a glass half full kinda guy, that's great, but in my opinion, a "light to a moderate event" in what looks to be arguably the best synoptic setup of the season thus far, would be a significant disappointment. Regardless looking at qpf totals at this point is really not that instructive. Nothing is set in stone, and that's particularly true for qpf totals, as that is very difficult for models to resolve. And everyone in this forum is hoping this comes west as p-type issues are irrelevant, even for the coast. So do you feel that this has a chance of trending NW with time? Agreed no issues at all with QPF types!! Let's hope for the trend to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 So do you feel that this has a chance of trending NW with time? Agreed no issues at all with QPF types!! Let's hope for the trend to begin. We have seen things change 12 hours before the storm. No one knows what will happen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 So do you feel that this has a chance of trending NW with time? Agreed no issues at all with QPF types!! Let's hope for the trend to begin.I didn't know that there were different types of a quantitive precipitation forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 NAM looks much improved at end of its run with the low popping well south, Delmarva/VA Capes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 NAM looks much improved at end of its run with the low popping well south, Delmarva/VA Capes... Agree,looks like it would resemble the 6z gfs after 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 NAM looks much improved at end of its run with the low popping well south, Delmarva/VA Capes...We want the NAM to be over Buffalo at day 4. The NAM would likely develop too Far East for most people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What did the 0z Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 IMO the danger is for this develop too far N/E (or late for us). If it pops off the delmarva/VA Capes I think we are in good shape for at least a 2-4" type deal. Certainly the more east you are the better, but having this thing pop south is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 IMO the danger is for this develop too far N/E (or late for us). If it pops off the delmarva/VA Capes I think we are in good shape for at least a 2-4" type deal. Certainly the more east you are the better, but having this thing pop south is good. Thursday looks to favor favor the coastal locations. The PD storm, IMO, has a chance of a much bigger impact for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I didn't know that there were different types of a quantitive precipitation forecast Ha Ha... u know what I meant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 IMO the danger is for this develop too far N/E (or late for us). If it pops off the delmarva/VA Capes I think we are in good shape for at least a 2-4" type deal. Certainly the more east you are the better, but having this thing pop south is good. There is no change yet in this, The Upton AFD said at 4am the storm would pop off Delmerva but that would only give us 2 inches. Need better positioning for the 50/50 to get a capture and draw it west and/or block it from heading north east but rather NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm excited for the the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 So interesting you say this is the best synoptic set up of the season ( arguably) even better than the blizzard that wasnt ( east of Suffolk)? What makes it so, would love to learn Beautiful PNA ridge that pushes all the way into central Alaska. Couple that with a longwave trough that drops all the way down through Florida. Classic example of Frigid Artic air meeting Warm subtropical, moist air, and where this boundary lies (right off the eastern) seaboard, is the location of rapid cyclogenesis. Additionally, embedded within the trough is a potent shortwave collocated with high levels of upper level vorticity which enhances mid-latitude cyclone development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Beautiful PNA ridge that pushes all the way into central Alaska. Couple that with a longwave trough that drops all the way down through Florida. Classic example of Frigid Artic air meeting Warm subtropical, moist air, and where this boundary lies (right off the eastern) seaboard, is the location of rapid cyclogenesis. Additionally, embedded within the trough is a potent shortwave collocated with high levels of upper level vorticity which enhances mid-latitude cyclone development. I see what you mean, the potential for explosive development is high & with frigid air over all we need for big smiles around here is a steady progression west and we are sitting very pretty in 72 hrs. Makes this next GFS run a fairly exciting one to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I know this will likely change, but the NWS has snow/rain for Thursday with a high of 36F for my area. Just goes with the uncertainty. Looks like SW flow out ahead of the arctic front, before the coastal takes over--but anything that falls before the coastal develops is very light...I wouldn't put rain in the forecast for that reason, because it's negligible...but that's me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The initial northern stream shortwave on the GFS is stronger and digging more than 06z. It's still going to leave behind the energy over the four corners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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