mdsnowlover Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good, this story is getting old. wayyyyyy past that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro weeklies still look warmer in March. It's got to happen eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro weeklies still look warmer in March. It's got to happen eventually. starting which week in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 starting which week in March?Heights and 850s give way week 2 tho it keeps cool sfc thru week 3. Seems suspect this far south on that but maybe. It's more or less held to Mar 1ish tho maybe it's dragging a bit which might not be good news. However given expected PNA relax we should ease at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Heights and 850s give way week 2 tho it keeps cool sfc thru week 3. Seems suspect this far south on that but maybe. It's more or less held to Mar 1ish tho maybe it's dragging a bit which might not be good news. However given expected PNA relax we should ease at least. Snow depth? lol Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro weeklies still look warmer in March. It's got to happen eventually. That they are actually right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It usually warms in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Snow depth? lol Thx Could be .. That was HM's guess too. Not sure that's a huge factor this far south but maybe. They hadnt hit wxbell yet so only saw week avgs. May be wrong but it's consistently highlighted the beginning of mo or so for a while. CFS sub weeklies have a hint of brief warming before turning cold again mid mo or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Heights and 850s give way week 2 tho it keeps cool sfc thru week 3. Seems suspect this far south on that but maybe. It's more or less held to Mar 1ish tho maybe it's dragging a bit which might not be good news. However given expected PNA relax we should ease at least. Interesting. There's been some consensus in the models (in the longer range) of the amplified flow relaxing. Whether that's temporary and we go back again sometime later in March, who knows. Now, when you say "warmer" in the weeklies, I take it that's relative to what we've been experiencing? I mean, doesn't necessarily mean 60s and 70s as we get into March or something. Just looking at the GEFS mean pattern, I can see us remaining well below normal through the end of February, perhaps into the first couple days of March. Then if you "extrapolate" the flow, maybe normal or slightly below. Which is warmer than what we had and certainly not a snow-looking pattern, but hardly all that mild. This is all speculation of course, remains to be seen. The only thing I think that there's any real confidence in is through the end of next week (end of February). (ETA: Normals are getting into the low-mid 50s for highs and 30s for lows, in early March, at DCA. Also interestingly, CPC's 0.5 month lead for March calls for below normal temps in the northeast quarter of the U.S., for what it's worth.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Once we lose the pna, we'll probably end up see sawing with no extremes one way or the other and no long regimes of warm/cold. Sound exactly what march usually is. By march 10th i'm rooting for either ridges, bowling balls, and 93 reduxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah and 1/96 could in some people's definitions be considered our best Miller B but I think most would consider it a hybrid. I always considered it a straight miller A.....no redevelopment...one primary low up the coast....doesn't matter that it was northern stream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro weeklies still look warmer in March. It's got to happen eventually. GFS says no to that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I always considered it a straight miller A.....no redevelopment...one primary low up the coast....doesn't matter that it was northern stream... It was kind of messy before 12Z on 1/7/96 with inverted trough extending into Kentucky. The low redeveloped off of NC with the GA low (and accompanying low pressure into WV by then) dissipating soon after. I think it was a hybrid of sorts but still overall, a gulf to east coast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This miller a vs b discission is interesting because technically every low redevelops. Lows done move as much as they continuously redevelop and jump to where the pressure falls are occurring usually along a baroclinic boundary. Of course some lows redevelop along a more continuous track and some have to jump a long way to a new boundary when forcing or the thermal gradient forces it to. If simply having a low pressure jump of more then 100 miles or something like that is the criteria then 80% of storms are miller b but I would really throw them into 4 categories. The straight miller a gulf storms. Travel a consistent track up the coast east of the mountains. Those are our holy grails but rare. Southern stream dominated miller b hybrid. Storm from gulf tracks west of the apps into tn ky initially then redevelops off the coast. If there is cold air in place and the transfer happens below our latitude we can get crushed by those. Northern stream/southern stream phase miller bs. Northern stream system digs as a southern low comes up and they phase. These are more iffy. If the northern stream digs below our latitude and there is blocking we do ok. Without blocking it's unlikely it comes together in time. Also if the phase happens late like Boxing Day it won't work. But we have had good storms from this type also. Finally northern stream only miller b. Clipper low bombs. These almost never work for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Best HECS setup all year is in the 7-10 day period....GFS brings out the energy a bit too slow....but the signal is HUGE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Best HECS setup all year is in the 7-10 day period....GFS brings out the energy a bit too slow....but the signal is HUGE right now. Will this be THE ONE that springs us forward, though I know March can hold many surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Best HECS setup all year is in the 7-10 day period....GFS brings out the energy a bit too slow....but the signal is HUGE right now. Mean GEFS 500mb pattern isn't screaming HECS to me at all. Snow chance? Yeah, but not a KU pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Mean GEFS 500mb pattern isn't screaming HECS to me at all. Snow chance? Yeah, but not a KU pattern. I was thinking the same thing. Timing everything could work but from a week out it looks dicey. No reason to think the euro op has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I was thinking the same thing. Timing everything could work but from a week out it looks dicey. No reason to think the euro op has the right idea. Been working all morning and haven't had a chance to look at anything for next week. How is the midweek system looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Been working all morning and haven't had a chance to look at anything for next week. How is the midweek system looking. So far the PV anvil is squashing everything. I'm skeptical of such a suppressed look. Doesn't mean we get hit or anything. Just that the door will open a bit after the hp early next week moves around a bit. Something could sneak up here from thurs-sun timeframe. Impossible to know right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So far the PV anvil is squashing everything. I'm skeptical of such a suppressed look. Doesn't mean we get hit or anything. Just that the door will open a bit after the hp early next week moves around a bit. Something could sneak up here from thurs-sun timeframe. Impossible to know right now. Thanks. Another very cold week looks almost certain. Would love to sneak in one more anomoly of cold powder late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Jesus christ look at 500mb on the GFS @ 159 hours it looks like its gonna form a superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Jesus christ look at 500mb on the GFS @ 159 hours it looks like its gonna form a superstormOr just a cheesy cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea it prob wont do it this run but the setup is awesome, love this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea it prob wont do it this run but the setup is awesome, love this time frameLiked it better a few days ago. Now the troff is too far west with respect to the surface high and in no hurry to come east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm out to 180... Still looks threatening, an awful lot of moisture in/below the south and plenty of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We need all the energy to come out asap while the HP & confluence is in place, long way out but sometjing to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Jesus christ look at 500mb on the GFS @ 159 hours it looks like its gonna form a superstorm ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Amped thats because it takes too long to come East, its too far out to worry regardless but the setup is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ian I saw a shortwave digging for gold with awesome confkuence, instead it kind of pieced itself East. If were going to get a 12+ storm this is our best chance IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.