Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro ensembles keep upping the ante on a couple normal to above normal days to start march. Before the warm folks get excited...gets cold again at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro ensembles keep upping the ante on a couple normal to above normal days to start march. Before the warm folks get excited...gets cold again at the end. there is good agreement for a storm in D9/D10 from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 there are still some snowy solutions on the Euro EPS for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 bobs threat early next week looks lousy on EPS but JMA loves you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 bobs threat early next week looks lousy on EPS Feb 29th storm is our last chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Feb 29th storm is our last chance... nah....we can get snow through mid March. There was a little storm that hit back in 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 bobs threat early next week looks lousy on EPS but JMA loves you JMA looks like Highzenberg's Miller A, just a day+ earlier if there was ever going to be a year where we actually scored big with a Miller A, it would be this year I've never seen H5's dig so far south repeatedly as this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 wowzers on the GFS at 234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 give me more baby http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=234ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_234_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150218+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 wowzers on the GFS at 234 That's weird. Just looking at the 500, I would think that thing would cut off to our west with that flow. There's no confluence. Yet the 850's are cold, as is the surface, and the low is down in the Gulf off the coast of the FL panhandle. Something doesn't seem to match, but that's only a cursory look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 wowzers on the GFS at 234did u see the Canadien day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 did u see the Canadien day 10Considering how good it is at short range I can't wait to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 wowzers on the GFS at 234 Just saw it. I would give up all my earthly possessions for a map like that and the H locked in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 did u see the Canadien day 10 When did you become French? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GEFS really goes Bat**** with the +AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I know we're a March snow town now, but after next week we're really fighting climo. Average highs are torching soon. Won't be long before our BN days are upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Also trend for some back end snows now on the GFS. Seems possible if less of that energy ejects. ETA: Nam continues the trend, much flatter shortwave over Kansas at 72hrs than 12z had, there may very well be a trailing disturbance with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Also trend for some back end snows now on the GFS. Seems possible if less of that energy ejects. ETA: Nam continues the trend, much flatter shortwave over Kansas at 72hrs than 12z had, there may very well be a trailing disturbance with this system. We know how backend snow works for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I would take the NAM is a heartbeat... I would get a good front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I would take the NAM is a heartbeat... I would get a good front end thump. not really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 not really... I would get .5 QPF before a switch over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I would get .5 QPF before a switch over 66 -- nothing 69 -- light snow (could be sleet, there are warm layers in there around 0) 72 -- sleet 75 -- rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 66 -- nothing 69 -- light snow (could be sleet) 72 -- sleet 75 -- rain Maybe in Springfield VA ... but not in central Balt Co.. I am not saying the NAM is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe in Springfield VA ... but not in central Balt Co.. I am not saying the NAM is right That is for Baltimore.. I did the soundings already. for me, its brief sleet to fun rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 That is for Baltimore.. I did the soundings already. for me, its brief sleet to fun rain I checked BWI soundings and it is snow through 69 hours, which is around .1" qpf then, another .36" falls the next 3 hrs. and it transitions to freezing rain at the end of that 3 hrs., which takes you to 72 hrs. on the run the rest that falls is rain, but surface temps ain't so bad http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That is for Baltimore.. I did the soundings already. for me, its brief sleet to fun rain What is the sounding for the following 39.486012,-76.521717 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What is the sounding for the following 39.486012,-76.521717 See Mitch's post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I checked BWI soundings and it is snow through 69 hours, which is around .1" qpf then, another .36" falls the next 3 hrs. and it transitions to freezing rain at the end of that 3 hrs., which takes you to 72 hrs. on the run the rest that falls is rain, but surface temps ain't so bad http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kbwi.txt a different text output product for BWI change the last 3 letters on the url before ".tzt" for other stations, but it is a limited number in that they don't have the smaller towns http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 See Mitch's post above See that is the problem. I am 23 miles north northeast of BWI with an elevation of 500 Ft... BWI only sits at 110 Ft. That could make all the difference to hold on to the wintry precip. I think KMNT is closer station but still not quite the same climo Is there a site where I can go and plot latitude and longitude instead of a station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 See that is the problem. I am 23 miles north northeast of BWI with an elevation of 500 Ft... BWI only sits at 110 Ft. That could make all the difference to hold on to the wintry precip. I think KMNT is closer station but still not quite the same climo Is there a site where I can go and plot latitude and longitude instead of a station? 154', not that it matters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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