SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Very light snow at 78 to IP/FZRN at 84 Quickly over to rain...oh well...maybe we can get some good trends on the european/canadian/uk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 With that kind of strength and track + HP offshore, it probably couldn't be a more efficient setup to get rid of the cold air. GFS seems to be locked into this progression now. Probably too quick at the surface but it's still pretty bad for people who prefer frozen precip over rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Very light snow at 78 to IP/FZRN at 84 to rain at 87 (for DCA) Ugh. So ~6 hours of slop then rain. A couple or so days ago this event actually looked pretty decent, but the trends have gone the other way. I am not overly hopeful for any real improvement right now, even from other models. Just simply nothing to keep the preceding cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 With that kind of strength and track + HP offshore, it probably couldn't be a more efficient setup to get rid of the cold air. GFS seems to be locked into this progression now. Probably too quick at the surface but it's still pretty bad for people who prefer frozen precip over rain. Ugh. So ~6 hours of slop then rain. A couple or so days ago this event actually looked pretty decent, but the trends have gone the other way. I am not overly hopeful for any real improvement right now, even from other models. Just simply nothing to keep the preceding cold air in. GFS ends up tracking the surface low over the Adirondacks...only thing in our favor is that we haven't seen that happen yet this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 With that kind of strength and track + HP offshore, it probably couldn't be a more efficient setup to get rid of the cold air. GFS seems to be locked into this progression now. Probably too quick at the surface but it's still pretty bad for people who prefer frozen precip over rain. Exactly. I think the system has been modeled stronger compared to a few days ago, so the cold air just gets shoved right out. Awful trends to say the least, but I think like you said the GFS has pretty well locked onto this consistently for the last several runs. I'm not optimistic at all at this point, barring a significant change in the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS ends up tracking the surface low over the Adirondacks...only thing in our favor is that we haven't seen that happen yet this season. Not sure what you mean by this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z GFS is a stronger low, and quicker. At least Boston doesn't get that heavy of rain this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Exactly. I think the system has been modeled stronger compared to a few days ago, so the cold air just gets shoved right out. Awful trends to say the least, but I think like you said the GFS has pretty well locked onto this consistently for the last several runs. I'm not optimistic at all at this point, barring a significant change in the next day or so. The big midwest HP is just not fast enough to reinforce the cold air to our area. If it was 200 miles east I would feel much better for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The big midwest HP is just not fast enough to reinforce the cold air to our area. If it was 200 miles east I would feel much better for sure. Yeah, I was thinking of that, too...not just the cold air that will be in place. Reminds me in some ways of the Feb. 1-2 event, the HP to the northwest then did not go "over top" of the system, it built more behind it (or something like that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 looks like a slp forms on the front and brings us some light snow as the cold has returned we should probably focus on that as maybe it trends stronger as time goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 looks like a slp forms on the front and brings us some light snow as the cold has returned we should probably focus on that as maybe it trends stronger as time goes on I didn't see a low per se form on the end of the front, but I did notice the pity flakes indicated at the end with the very light precip amounts in there. Somehow, I remember there being a secondary development depicted in one of the models before (maybe the GFS?). But not getting too excited about it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 I didn't see a low per se form on the end of the front, but I did notice the pity flakes indicated at the end with the very light precip amounts in there. Somehow, I remember there being a secondary development depicted in one of the models before (maybe the GFS?). But not getting too excited about it for now. it's probably just a wave on the front right now, but you are right that one or more of the models had a low trailing on the front that came up on some runs a few days ago, but I can't recall which model(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like something may be cooking at 192 ETA: Most def at 198... H coming in a great spot as well... hopefully we can time this right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like something may be cooking at 192 Highzenberg's Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Highzenberg's Miller B? Nah..H sliding down in advice of a low pressure in TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Highzenberg's Miller B? I don't think so... this "moisture/storm" is developing in the South (aka TX/AR/OK/LA region) 1005mb MSLP in S LA at 207 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Highzenberg's Miller B? There was something in the 00Z GFS (less so in the 06Z) around that time, but might have been a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Highzenberg's Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nah..H sliding down in advice of a low pressure in TX I'd advise it to come up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So, if someone *cough* is scheduled to drive from Albany to, say, Baltimore, on Sunday; how ugly is the average 6 hour drive going to be? Sorry for the not IMBY question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Highzenberg's Miller B? It's a moisture laden system down by Alabama by 213 hours..if it can round the corner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's a moisture laden system down by Alabama by 213 hours..if it can round the corner.... deep moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 deep moisture? I'm not an expert, 700mb moisture influx made up stuff isn't my thing....we should consult wintry mix for that kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So, if someone *cough* is scheduled to drive from Albany to, say, Baltimore, on Sunday; how ugly is the average 6 hour drive going to be? Sorry for the not IMBY question. Pretty ugly. You're going to be passing the Albany suburbs, the NJ Turnpike, going past Camden, NJ, and then heading through northern Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's a moisture laden system down by Alabama by 213 hours..if it can round the corner.... Its trying at 219 it appears ETA: 222 new slp off of SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We get snows at 216...nothing heavy...a few inches so far at 219. It's all fantasy anyway at this point ETA 225 we get into the moderate stuff...lol..it looks like our last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 SN in DCA 225 and 228.... nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Its trying at 219 it appears ETA: 222 new slp off of SC has potential http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=216ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_216_precip_p03.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p03&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150218+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Around 4", or using snow maps, 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Obviously the GFS is all over the place with the storm, looks cool at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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