gymengineer Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 1/17/1994 definitely had both cool days surrounding it. It can happen if the high moves offshore and the flow amplifies, shorter wavelengths at this time of year can make it easier. MLK day '94 was an ice-storm, not a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 MLK day '94 was an ice-storm, not a rainstorm. Forgot, in CT we got up into the 40s with heavy rain during that day . 1/3/1999 was frigid the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I usually am ok with going back in time and looking at analogs, but I feel like this would just be such a chore to find. What are the analogs for DC to go from lower teens to rain and 50's the next day and then back down to the teens the next day? I don't think it is terribly rare, though not common either.... 1/2-4/1999 is a quasi example...we were under a very cold airmass and a low cut to our west and spiked us one day at 10pm we were 21 and freezing rain and at 5am we were 55 and getting deluged....temp dropped that evening and the next day we didn't hit freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Forgot, in CT we got up into the 40s with heavy rain during that day . 1/3/1999 was frigid the day before. I don't think it is terribly rare, though not common either.... 1/2-4/1999 is a quasi example...we were under a very cold airmass and a low cut to our west and spiked us one day at 10pm we were 21 and freezing rain and at 5am we were 55 and getting deluged....temp dropped that evening and the next day we didn't hit freezing. ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 lol...here are DC's max temps for 12/31/98 to 1/5/99 28, 30, 25, 55, 30, 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The moral of the weekend storm is, Get out and enjoy the snow, because come Sunday.......You know what they say: here one day, gone the next. 50 degrees plus soaking rain doesn't help snow, but it sure gets the gunk off of my car. Those snow squalls need to annihilate the folks who missed out on the storm yesterday: BlizzardNole, psuhoffman and other hobbyists in Maryland. Because if we are going to get rained and warm weathered out this weekend, those Maryland ppl need to be crushed by snow squalls later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Pretty big changes on 6z GFS, things shifted quite a bit south and east... Still a rainer but at least not as warm... Another few shifts like this and we'd be back in business. Not quite giving up on the weekend yet since I don't think things will get fully resolved until after the next ocean storm forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I know it's an embarrassment of a model. But the ggem would be a nice front end thump on Saturday. So would the Nam if you wanna play that game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 6z has snow over the entire se coast for next wed... That's usually a good look for us at this range... Albeit there doesn't look like there is a good HP system around to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 I know it's an embarrassment of a model. But the ggem would be a nice front end thump on Saturday. So would the Nam if you wanna play that game. notice how both of them have HP moving off the east coast further north than the other models which limits return warm flow enough to get a decent thump and more sleet/zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surprised nobody mentioned the ukie. 2-4" before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gut feeling this is a sleet bomb that accumulates....any rain after won't melt it away....kids off until graduation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surprised nobody mentioned the ukie. 2-4" before the flip. The high end of that would be my biggest storm of the year if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gut feeling this is a sleet bomb that accumulates....any rain after won't melt it away....kids off until graduation If we get a sleet bomb, I'm going to pile it up before the rain. It will be a big pile of steaming sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The GFS solution is of course bad, but we've seen large shifts at this lead this season, I'm hoping 12z today is the start of good trends and not throwing in the towel just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 In the early 1980s was in Ames, IA for a sleet bomb. The forecast called for 18-24" of snow (which would have broken most or all records) but we ended up with ~5" of sleet. Really enjoyed sloshing through it for the next several days. It didn't steam however as temperatures turned cold soon after. Perhaps this one will be a sleet bomb for you westerners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surprised nobody mentioned the ukie. 2-4" before the flip.hopefully it's the start of a trend, but won't count on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I know everyone is focued on this next event, but the models last night are strongly hinting at a Miller B associated with a strong ULL diving down from Canada....The GFS was actually very close to a huge storm at 6z for the time frame of Feb 26-28th....Keep an eye out for it during todays 12z runs EURO GFS GFS ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Heisenberg you cannot say "Miller B" in this forum without explaining how that will actually work out for us in this theoretical instance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I know I'm looking ahead................to 60's and no chance of snow. If this weekend can't provide some meaningful winter weather, I'm completely on the early spring train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Oh goody for Boston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nam showing my sleet bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 84 hours and all, but NAM looks like it might want to give us a best case scenario. Front end something followed by dry slot followed by frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAM is 1-2" snow then ZR per Instant Weather maps here's 84 hr. categorical zr http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021812&time=3&var=CFRZR&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I know everyone is focued on this next event, but the models last night are strongly hinting at a Miller B associated with a strong ULL diving down from Canada....The GFS was actually very close to a huge storm at 6z for the time frame of Feb 26-28th....Keep an eye out for it during todays 12z runs EURO GFS GFS ENS Why would anyone here care or get excited for a Miller B? Come on man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 He wants to chase to Boston again?? Really don't see how that would do any good for us. Why would anyone here care or get excited for a Miller B? Come on man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Composite Radar = Fantasy Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Pregame on 12z GFS doesn't look that good to me, HP is stronger. Calling it at 57 hours? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Very light snow at 78 to IP/FZRN at 84 to rain at 87 (for DCA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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