CAPE Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Our 1004mb low over VA is going to be 976mb over Nantucket 18 hrs later. Is there still an El Nino watch in effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Is there still an El Nino watch in effect? Maybe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 If the predicted Nino, -AO/NAO didnt all FAIL, it might have been us. The vast majority of the time, there's something that doesn't go right, which is why it's so rare for all the planets to align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Isn't next year supposed to be a warm winter according to Joey B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What happened? Models went so dry through 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Isn't next year supposed to be a warm winter according to Joey B? He said 3 out of the next 5 would be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 He said 3 out of the next 5 would be warm. Ha, what does that even mean? Kind of a silly statement for him to make as any 3 of the next 5 years very well could be warm and almost anyone could throw that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Considering that 75% of our recent winters have been warm, having only 3 out of the next 5 winters be warm is actually colder than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The day 3 clipper looks to have trended better on the 18z ens members. The 192-204 frame on the members has the best storm consensus I've seen since the Thanksgiving storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The day 3 clipper looks to have trended better on the 18z ens members. The 192-204 frame on the members has the best storm consensus I've seen since the Thanksgiving storm That's good news...thanks giving some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Considering that 75% of our recent winters have been warm, having only 3 out of the next 5 winters be warm is actually colder than expected 2009-10: cold 2010-11: cold 2011-12: warm 2012-13: warm 2013-14: cold 2014-15: probably coldish We've actually had a fair number of cold winters lately, though if you look back further there were several mild ones in the mid-late 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Assuming it's right, too little too late (10 Day Euro 30mb map from last night's 0Z run)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 0z GFS is a miss for this weekend, but a pretty cool, unique event. Perhaps a met can chime in, but I think it is a lee trough that swings through which is pretty unusual here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 With that low exploding off the northeast coast on Sunday in the 00z GFS and pulling the arctic air deep into the southeast, the 2-m temps verbatim here stay in the 10-15 F range during Sunday with howling winds and drop to near 0 Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Middle of next week, we get fringed but it looks healthier than it has looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Assuming it's right, too little too late (10 Day Euro 30mb map from last night's 0Z run)? HM tweeted about this and the +aam which sets up -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Assuming it's right, too little too late (10 Day Euro 30mb map from last night's 0Z run)? didn't it split once before earlier in this lousy season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not a flake on the 6Z GFS out here through its entire run. Meanwhile Boston gets another foot and a half at least. Really just UFB at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 06UT GFS shows no love for BWI. It features Miller-B Nova Scotia specials. The first on Thursday gives 0.03" of precip (snow). The second on Saturday night gives 0.02" of precip (snow). The 17th looks more interesting but only 0.04" of precip After a 10-day cold-period it warms into the 40s on the 20th and 21st with heavy rain, mostly on the 21st The EURO is a more optimistic for this weekend giving BWI ~2 inches of snow Saturday night despite the 850 low passing to our north. It gives less precip than the GFS on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Any SE ridges, 65 degree highs, extended periods of sunshine showing up in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Any SE ridges, 65 degree highs, extended periods of sunshine showing up in the long range? i thought the 6z GFS looks better for the midweek storm next week. It has Raleigh in the bullseye getting 8 inches. That cant be a bad thing for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It wasn't awful...especially with the SE in the slot right now. No reason to give up hope yet. This time last year I still had about 30" to look forward to. We're not done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I thought the 0z Euro looked pretty good all things considered. I'll take the suppressed look for the next week threat and the weekend clipper looked decent. GEFS look awful for both though. Edit...should add that the GEFS mean looks awful. There are a few nice members for the next week event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 All that's missing to top this season off is a southern slider that misses us. Bonus points if it then hooks around us up the coast and nails SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 All that's missing to top this season off is a southern slider that misses us. Bonus points if it then hooks around us up the coast and nails SNE. I would actually love to see that. It would be painful if it weren't such a comical ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I would actually love to see that. It would be painful if it weren't such a comical ending. A winter would not be complete in this area without big snows to the north and to the south of the area. That being said, I'm not buying the Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina HECS yet. This thing could be in Chicago by Feb 18th. None of the models or their ensembles can be trusted this year in the mid to long range. We'll see how it shakes out once inside 100 hour lead. We probably have a better chance with these upcoming clippers than the southern stream storm though given the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 All that's missing to top this season off is a southern slider that misses us. Bonus points if it then hooks around us up the coast and nails SNE. As frustrated as I am this winter, that would be a hilarious ending. Can't make that kind of stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I thought the 0z Euro looked pretty good all things considered. I'll take the suppressed look for the next week threat and the weekend clipper looked decent. GEFS look awful for both though. Edit...should add that the GEFS mean looks awful. There are a few nice members for the next week event. I don't think you can say much about next weeks storm as the euro ens members are all over the place with the low track ranging from Ohio to off the SC coast with their lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 All that's missing to top this season off is a southern slider that misses us. Bonus points if it then hooks around us up the coast and nails SNE. 6z GFS op was pretty damn close to doing just that. Did clip Boston and the Cape pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't think you can say much about next weeks storm as the euro ens members are all over the place with the low track ranging from Ohio to off the SC coast with their lows. Agree Wes. It's been that way for at least the last 3-4 runs. Having a small cluster with a southern solution is a good thing. We need wiggle room in that direction. Being on the southern edge d4+ has been pretty fruitless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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