AlaskaETC Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 UKMET's wheelhouse is three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GEFS is rainy as a mofo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 GEFS is rainy as a mofo I guess we'll know in a few minutes what the Euro's thinking is.....hopefully otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 we'll see how quick the Euro can move this out of the way in 48 hours http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 we'll see how quick the Euro can move this out of the way in 48 hours http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Looks good to me through 90 nice mass down in AR moving NE with a nice cold airmass overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Through 96 mass is still intensifying, temps around 5-10 degrees over the area. IF i had a gun to my head, id project at least a good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Well it might end up being close. 102 1008 in C AR moving NE precip into WV and W MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 don't know what happens between 102 and 120 hrs., but warm air (850'S > 0c) definitely gets in by day 5 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Couple inches of snow and a quick flip to rain. Surface freezing line beelines north with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not an optimal location of slp for snow lol http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 don't know what happens between 102 and 120 hrs., but warm air (850'S > 0c) definitely gets in by day 5 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest ROA up to LYH gets a great thump it looks like. Precip takes a long time to get up into us. Temps were good but then went downhill with the slow QPF progression. I'll leave PBP to others i dont wanna be bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We flip between 108 and 114 but we'd have 1-3" on the front end it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Couple inches of snow and a quick flip to rain. Surface freezing line beelines north with ease. uber +NAO hurtin' us with this one for certain that cold air sure does get out quick though....wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 uber +NAO hurtin' us with this one for certain that cold air sure does get out quick though....wow not sure I'm 100% buying it happening that way in reality. It sometakes takes models time to figure out that we are dealing with a very legitimate airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 uber +NAO hurtin' us with this one for certain that cold air sure does get out quick though....wow Sure does. Big hp off the coast can do it with ease. It's a lot of cold rain on this run. I'll be sad if this is how it goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 disappointing run but thats what we do around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 An inch+ of rain right on the heels of record cold. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 uber +NAO hurtin' us with this one for certain that cold air sure does get out quick though....wow When did the trends to a more favorable solution begin on last nights storm? 3 days prior? The cold won't retreat that quickly...I would think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I was just going to post that Mitch. Quick frozen to warm rainer seems like the least likely solution attm. Pretty incredible turnaround. I think the airports probably have a better than 50% shot at beating climo this year. I only need 6-7" to get there in my yard. I'm not sure the odds are that high. It doesn't look like we're done yet with accumulating snow, but it did take us like 4 or 5 threats to nail down one region-wide snowfall. We're in a somewhat better pattern for our region now, but I still doubt all or even most of the threats are going to work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 An inch+ of rain right on the heels of record cold. lol.It happens. We're in the KU or die timeframe, and this never had Ku potential anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 looking for some sliver of hope, GEM did see last night's event as more suppressed, so maybe its solution today is better than the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We flip between 108 and 114 but we'd have 1-3" on the front end it seems. we probably flip around 112....maybe 3" and then flip...hopefully the western solution trends south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It happens. We're in the KU or die timeframe, and this never had Ku potential anyway. It's going to be mixed probably no matter what. I was hoping for a better front end deal. Still out in time. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 we do have a faux west based -NAO with a retrograding vortex, but not sure the configuration we want will happen or happen in time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We've gotten 4"+ of snow in patterns a lot worse than this...this is a B/B+ pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 What we're seeing is just a slight relaxation and resetting of the pattern. Take a look at the 12z EURO today @ 174 hours, there is a very potent ULL moving down from Canada and heading SE. We are also seeing some energy around Texas and some dropping in from NW US.....I think while it is certainly possible we see some snow from the event next week. The period that offers possibly the last chance at a "MAJOR" storm is in the 25-28th time frame. It has been showing up on the ensembles for a bit now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Unfortunately I do see the pattern breaking down in the first week of March (as of right now at least), maybe we can get one last flip between the 7th-20th of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm not sure the odds are that high. It doesn't look like we're done yet with accumulating snow, but it did take us like 4 or 5 threats to nail down one region-wide snowfall. We're in a somewhat better pattern for our region now, but I still doubt all or even most of the threats are going to work out for us.DCA may still pull off sub 10" after all. ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 DCA may still pull off sub 10" after all. ;( Well, I'm thinking that reaching median is a better target than reaching climo...DCA needs like 4" to reach median. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Nothing too exciting on today's EURO, meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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