mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 idk Bob, GFS may be a little late to the party on this one in light of the UKMet, CMC and Euro otoh, it was first to the party in showing us getting a decent snow event and then switched lol or, it just might be that the GFS just hasn't quite figured what it wants to do I guess it's going to be a whole lot of model run paranoia around here again this week imho, as everything appears right now, the cold pattern is locked in so I'll be a weenie and go with a colder solution and then a flip I forgot to mention one of the reasons for my colder solution scenarios http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So I guess we are not really banking on this weekend's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I just went through the euro members. Someone hit the weenie button on the run. The d5 threat looks pretty good for a front end thump but most followed up with a mix. No surprise. Some of the stronger west tracks looked great for a front end thump and some of the weaker/sheared looked good for overrunning. Hopefully it ends up being a fun track even if mixy. Where it gets interesting is the d6-8 range. Many pop a coastal after the front clears. Even the d9-10 range has a # of members with good storms. Seems like everything pointing towards the potential for multiple accum events over the next 10 days. I'm stoked. ETA: I'm pretty sure the euro is going to show a big hit inside of d8 in the next couple of days. Maybe in the next 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 I ain't kidding, there's a squirrel that always comes around our office and this morning it is as big as a house. I have never seen it that big. I guess there's something to Weatherfella's alternate method of winter predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I just went through the euro members. Someone hit the weenie button on the run. The d5 threat looks pretty good for a front end thump but most followed up with a mix. No surprise. Some of the stronger west tracks looked great for a front end thump and some of the weaker/sheared looked good for overrunning. Hopefully it ends up being a fun track even if mixy. Where it gets interesting is the d6-8 range. Many pop a coastal after the front clears. Even the d9-10 range has a # of members with good storms. Seems like everything pointing towards the potential for multiple accum events over the next 10 days. I'm stoked. ETA: I'm pretty sure the euro is going to show a big hit inside of d8 in the next couple of days. Maybe in the next 2 hours. I am pretty bullish Bob on the Saturday event. Agree with mitch on our cold airmass and snow cover will help us. Also, i like that some ensembles hit us with a thump and others do hit us with overrunning. It had support from the UKMET solidly at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 I am pretty bullish Bob on the Saturday event. Agree with mitch on our cold airmass and snow cover will help us. Also, i like that some ensembles hit us with a thump and others do hit us with overrunning. It had support from the UKMET solidly at 0z. 12Z GEM ain't bad looking for the weekend either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I ain't kidding, there's a squirrel that always comes around our office and this morning it is as big as a house. I have never seen it that big. I guess there's something to Weatherfella's alternate method of winter predictions. preggers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I was just going to post that Mitch. Quick frozen to warm rainer seems like the least likely solution attm. Pretty incredible turnaround. I think the airports probably have a better than 50% shot at beating climo this year. I only need 6-7" to get there in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I was just going to post that Mitch. Quick frozen to warm rainer seems like the least likely solution attm. Pretty incredible turnaround. I think the airports probably have a better than 50% shot at beating climo this year. I only need 6-7" to get there in my yard.Just SE of 95 need only 2.6 to get to my approx 18.1" climo. At 15.5 now.And yes, we should get some snow this weekend provided QPF is present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I was just going to post that Mitch. Quick frozen to warm rainer seems like the least likely solution attm. Pretty incredible turnaround. I think the airports probably have a better than 50% shot at beating climo this year. I only need 6-7" to get there in my yard. I need between 8-9" to beat my climo. After the start to this winter it would be pretty incredible to do it. I am at 16.1" and my climo is about 25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I need between 8-9" to beat my climo. After the start to this winter it would be pretty incredible to do it. I am at 16.1" and my climo is about 25". Mine is 21". I'm at 14.7. From what I'm seeing right now, I'm feeling pretty good about getting there. I really want the airports to do it because it's so rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Mine is 21". I'm at 14.7. From what I'm seeing right now, I'm feeling pretty good about getting there. I really want the airports to do it because it's so rare. when you have a cold january and record cold February...getting to climo is a woeful winter. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GGEM is about 3-6" thump in the area between 102-114. In between 108-114 850's increase to about +1 to +2 in the area, however surface temperatures are in the neighborhood of 31-32 up 95 with 30 out towards HGR. The QPF for that 6 hour period in the cities is .8-.9 so a very wet frame. I like what I'm seeing to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 when you have a cold january and record cold February...getting to climo is a woeful winter. Sorry We do cold and low snowfall pretty well here. Plenty of history in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 A huge sleet storm would lock in snowcover until April....mattieg golf game will go down in flames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GEM swings another low around the area d7-d8, temps borderline but plenty of time and its the time bob was keying in on. Should be a very interesting euro run coming up at 12z. I'm pumped. Lets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 when you have a cold january and record cold February...getting to climo is a woeful winter. Sorry why? Obviously cold is a prerequisite to snow but the two are not a perfect correlation. We have had not so cold years that produced several nice snows and you don't seem upset those years at the lack of cold/snow link. Another way to look at it is to be amazed at how cold it's been in a raging +nao/AO winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I was just going to post that Mitch. Quick frozen to warm rainer seems like the least likely solution attm. Pretty incredible turnaround. I think the airports probably have a better than 50% shot at beating climo this year. I only need 6-7" to get there in my yard. I'm not sweating the gfs idea. This last event looked west at first then in the end south was the problem. The cold looks real this time. I also think we get several waves coming at us from the sw with arctic highs up north. The nao still looks crappy so they will be progressive and some could go west but overall it's as good a pattern we can get with the nao this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 A huge sleet storm would lock in snowcover until April....mattieg golf game will go down in flames Snow to sleet to ice to glacier sounds fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I thought the CMC was the worst model... Oh I forgot the rule... take whatever model gives you the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I thought the CMC was the worst model... Oh I forgot the rule... take whatever model gives you the most snow. Just analysis my friend, analysis. It doesn't hurt to have any model on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That is what happened back down in Norfolk last night. Dad says he had 5 inches snow, 1 inch sleet and like .25 inch ice glacier from freezing rain. He used hair dryer and sledge hammer to open cars... Snow to sleet to ice to glacier sounds fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm not sweating the gfs idea. This last event looked west at first then in the end south was the problem. The cold looks real this time. I also think we get several waves coming at us from the sw with arctic highs up north. The nao still looks crappy so they will be progressive and some could go west but overall it's as good a pattern we can get with the nao this bad. It looks really active behind the fronts. That's a big deal because we need to time things. Seems like precip chances are lining up every 2-3 days. Crazy. Guidance is starting to agree on losing the amplified western ridge as we approach and go into march. If we score decent through the next 10 days I'll welcome an end to winter and tracking season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I thought the CMC was the worst model... Oh I forgot the rule... take whatever model gives you the most snow. There should be a filter to remove specific model talk. GGEM high on list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Snow to sleet to ice to glacier sounds fun.SAS will get you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Anyone see the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 There should be a filter to remove specific model talk. GGEM high on list. Believe me I would gladly it the CMC... it give me 15 or so in the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It looks really active behind the fronts. That's a big deal because we need to time things. Seems like precip chances are lining up every 2-3 days. Crazy. Guidance is starting to agree on losing the amplified western ridge as we approach and go into march. If we score decent through the next 10 days I'll welcome an end to winter and tracking season. Yeah, looks like a solid -PNA pattern and we atleast go seasonal to slightly above March 1st on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Anyone see the ukie? This may not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 This may not be good. Can't expect the Ukie to be right all the time at 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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