ravensrule Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 not double digits..sorry...was combing the 2 storms on my snowfall map. Looks about 5-6 before flipThat would still be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Ah, thanks Bob. Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Ah, thanks Bob. Looks good And it's only day 5 not day 8/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 not double digits..sorry...was combing the 2 storms on my snowfall map. Looks about 5-6 before flip Any flip to plain rain? Or a wintry mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Any flip to plain rain? Or a wintry mix? wintry mix im guessing and may end in some rain but temps barely go above 32 towards the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 wintry mix im guessing and may end in some rain but temps barely go above 32 towards the end Awesome. Let's build a little glacier that lasts the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think the more important thing is that the euro is trending towards cold air/suppression winning the battle. GFS like the colder solution as well. This could be good. Low confidence but trends are nice right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think the more important thing is that the euro is trending towards cold air/suppression winning the battle. GFS like the colder solution as well. This could be good. Low confidence but trends are nice right now.ggem has it also. It could actually outsnow this snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 EURO, GFS, UKMET all have front-end mix then changing to rain. Pretty good consensus on a track to our west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 EURO, GFS, UKMET all have front-end mix then changing to rain. Pretty good consensus on a track to our west.... we look for a trend to the east, which I don't think that is unreasonable in light of progressive flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 EURO, GFS, UKMET all have front-end mix then changing to rain. Pretty good consensus on a track to our west.... HOW MUCH ACCUM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 ggem has it also. It could actually outsnow this snow That wouldn't be hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That 1053 high over ND on the 6Z GFS is something else. Obviously its exact position is gonna decide our fate. I would feel better if it was in eastern MN or WI when that first slug of moisture arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Optimistic for another 2-4" on the front of whatever we have going on Saturday. The airmass will have reloaded mid week and won't be entirely stale when that impressive slug of precip moves in shown on the Euro. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Through yesterday, monthly departures: DCA: -4.8 BWI: -6.5 IAD: -6.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The 00z CMC ensembles continue to favor a front-end thump on the 21st, with the snow signal getting stronger since 12z. There are some good hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 UKMET had one of the best looks on the front end at 0z last night, delivering 4-6 for DC and Baltimore. The GGEM is about 2-4, Euro 4-6. The GFS on the other hand warms 850's too quick to do anything for us in the snow department. Will be watching 12z to see where it goes. The storm is at d4.5 on the UK, so not entirely too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I can't think of a winter where the pattern suddenly flipped this late in the season. Maybe 1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I can't think of a winter where the pattern suddenly flipped this late in the season. Maybe 1993? Well for DC at least, almost all the snow in 85/86 came after the first week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Through yesterday, monthly departures: DCA: -4.8 BWI: -6.5 IAD: -6.3 Wow those departure numbers vs. how little snow we've gotten is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I can't think of a winter where the pattern suddenly flipped this late in the season. Maybe 1993? Kudos to the long range/seasonal forecasters who said this winter would be back loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 With a raging +AO, NAO, and a PNA that is set to tank, what's going to be keeping us cold as we get into March? Is the EPO alone really enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 With a raging +AO, NAO, and a PNA that is set to tank, what's going to be keeping us cold as we get into March? Is the EPO alone really enough? nope....we have the CFS2 interestingly, it is now putting some huge departures into the northern 2/3's of the US east of the Rockies centered in the upper plains we are below normal, but not as far below as it depicted for FEB; it has been getting a little colder, and we'll need that to score in MAR unless the model is sniffing out cold in the east early in the month and then shifting it westward to the upper plains...idk, but that may be a reasonable guess in light of medium range guidance holding onto the current "coldest in the east/NE" pattern another alternative is the SE ridge begins to flex its muscles, and that's possible too looking at the 850 anomaly map better news for snow in MAR is the precip map off the CFS2...pretty sweet I'd say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 With a raging +AO, NAO, and a PNA that is set to tank, what's going to be keeping us cold as we get into March? Is the EPO alone really enough?Western ridge should break down for a bit by week 2. I think we will head to near normal for a while at least tho it is hard to argue against this general NH pattern we've seen for like 2 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Through yesterday, monthly departures: DCA: -4.8 BWI: -6.5 IAD: -6.3 Wow. What will they look like by next Monday. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GFS would be pretty much and ice to rain event. Not a cad signal but cold air is wedged all the way down to GA as precip moves in. Will be easy to scour but could be a decent ice event before the flip if it goes down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GFS would be pretty much and ice to rain event. Not a cad signal but cold air is wedged all the way down to GA as precip moves in. Will be easy to scour but could be a decent ice event before the flip if it goes down like that. There is a CWG article about DC's 5 biggest surprise snowstorms. One of them is from Jan. 1982. Horrible track for snow but there was so much cold that it ended up snowing a good amount despite the west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 There is a CWG article about DC's 5 biggest surprise snowstorms. One of them is from Jan. 1982. Horrible track for snow but there was so much cold that it ended up snowing a good amount despite the west track. That one cut all the way to Minnesota if I'm not mistaken. Crazy to see a cold snowstorm with that kind of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 There is a CWG article about DC's 5 biggest surprise snowstorms. One of them is from Jan. 1982. Horrible track for snow but there was so much cold that it ended up snowing a good amount despite the west track. I don't have many thoughts on the track. Stronger storm goes west and weaker one could stay mostly south. Models have been looking juicier as we move forward. I think a mixed event is most likely. How much of each ptype is impossible to get a handle on. I definitely don't want the 12z gfs version. That's a lot of rain and I'm enjoying the winterscape too much to have it go down the sewer this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 GFS would be pretty much and ice to rain event. Not a cad signal but cold air is wedged all the way down to GA as precip moves in. Will be easy to scour but could be a decent ice event before the flip if it goes down like that. idk Bob, GFS may be a little late to the party on this one in light of the UKMet, CMC and Euro otoh, it was first to the party in showing us getting a decent snow event and then switched lol or, it just might be that the GFS just hasn't quite figured what it wants to do I guess it's going to be a whole lot of model run paranoia around here again this week imho, as everything appears right now, the cold pattern is locked in so I'll be a weenie and go with a colder solution and then a flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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