CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 From Mount Holly AFD- .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...**NEAR RECORD COLD SEVERAL TIMES THIS WEEK AND MORE SNOW PROBABLE**RECORDS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY, THURSDAY ANDFRIDAY MORNINGS. ALSO, URBAN CENTER COLDEST READINGS SINCE JANUARY19, 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z gfs is another weenie run. Not showing direct hits but what a prime look @ h5. We may make a run for climo+ this year afterall. Not going to be easy and will need a ton of luck but I don't think we're done after the mon-tues deal. Euro ens very bullish on future chances but I haven't been that thrilled with them lately. I'm wondering if in fact the bullseye has shifted of sorts. If we get a second storm after the early week we can revisit the whole "atmospheric memory" thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z gfs is another weenie run. Not showing direct hits but what a prime look @ h5. We may make a run for climo+ this year afterall. Not going to be easy and will need a ton of luck but I don't think we're done after the mon-tues deal. Euro ens very bullish on future chances but I haven't been that thrilled with them lately. I'm wondering if in fact the bullseye has shifted of sorts. If we get a second storm after the early week we can revisit the whole "atmospheric memory" thing. Bob, the cold air is legit....no more 7-10 day maps. With all this cold air and the PV moving to Hudson Bay, south or west, we will have many chances and though we will not see numbers like the NE, we will likely beat averages. I'm pretty confident of that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z gfs is another weenie run. Not showing direct hits but what a prime look @ h5. We may make a run for climo+ this year afterall. Not going to be easy and will need a ton of luck but I don't think we're done after the mon-tues deal. Euro ens very bullish on future chances but I haven't been that thrilled with them lately. I'm wondering if in fact the bullseye has shifted of sorts. If we get a second storm after the early week we can revisit the whole "atmospheric memory" thing. I don't think seasonal trends necessarily work all season. The angle of the cold has shifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I was just going to comment on the mid-week cold blast. A week this cold in mid to late Feb. is probably a 1 in 30-40 year occurrence. 1934,1958,1979 and 2015?Feb 1963 was pretty awesome out here. 7" snow and a 4" snow sandwiched by sub zero readings. 1986, 2007 were milding up by now. Will be interesting to see where this one ranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12 gfs is an absolute epic run, winter going out with a bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12 gfs is an absolute epic run, winter going out with a bang It shows a march 2001 like setup day 10. Lets hope it goes well this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro has a rainer day 7 but with the pattern i think that could change, however at 228 hours it looks like it is trying to spin up a monster low.... Suffice to say we have a lot of exciting times coming up till the end of March at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 An absolute HECS forming on Euro day 10, gfs shows a similar event in that time framw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cold is not a problem for two weeks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cold is not a problem for two weeks/ 2015021500_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Nice to see the trough axis further west... I recall someone saying that if the plains are torching, then storms aren't going to take a favorable track for us. It's a much better look when all the warmth is west of the continental divide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nice to see the trough axis further west... I recall someone saying that if the plains are torching, then storms aren't going to take a favorable track for us. It's a much better look when all the warmth is west of the continental divide. Yes, but what a strange standing pattern, we don't see a persistent vertical alignment to long wave troughs for so long of a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Another epic GFS run that has the huge day 9-10 event, its coming folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think this winter turns around really quick for you guys. I am pretty confident that DC reaches climo, which is remarkable considering how painful this winter has been in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Serious chill here Wednesday thru Friday, calling for below zero lows again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I am absolutely giddy about Feb 22-March 1st. I think there is a good shot for a MECS type event, with some small events mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z GFS @ 129 hours looks interesting, there is an ULL in S Canada that is diving SE, meanwhile energy in the NW is phasing in with the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z GFS @ 129 hours looks interesting, there is an ULL in S Canada that is diving SE, meanwhile energy in the NW is phasing in with the STJ. next weekend has been in the cross hairs of all the models for a couple days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS has been insisting on some light snow on Wednesday for several runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS has been insisting on some light snow on Wednesday for several runs in a row. polar vortex comes on by and sets off some instability snow showers/squall(s)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Cold as a witches tit! wow incredible 2 day stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 polar vortex comes on by and sets off some instability snow showers/squall(s)? Kinda weird as they develop right over the area. A couple runs have given BWI .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I am absolutely giddy about Feb 22-March 1st. I think there is a good shot for a MECS type event, with some small events mixed in. I think the GFS has looked quite interesting for the last ~1.5 weeks of this month. It has hinted at something in that time period, primarily around the 22nd-23rd. There's a lot of cold air around and nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Got a kick out of this morning's meta extended discussion from LWX: " ... I AM INTRIGUED BY THE 00ZGFS WHICH HAS A ZONAL JET STREAK FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NRNMID-ATLANTIC. TIME AND AGAIN THE GFS PRESENTS THIS FOR A RUN OR TWOIN THE WINTER AND THEN LATER RUNS PRODUCE A STORM SYSTEM...USUALLY ANOTABLE ONE. PERHAPS THE GFS WILL COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...BUTFOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION THE CLASSIC "HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGHTHE WEEKEND" WHICH IS A VALID ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z GFS SFC PATTERN ..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I notice you are about to get a visit from the 492 dm thickness contour, current location northern Manitoba, with -35 C ambient temp, could it go below zero F on Thursday or Friday morning with all this incoming snow? (edited, I tagged this for Wednesday originally but the coldest air would be Thursday morning) Looks to me as though some rural areas particularly over heavier snow cover could drop to -10 F, urban sites maybe 5-10 F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS still not buying the EURO solution for day 6-7, the EURO is phasing the canadian energy with the energy in the southwest but the GFS brings the ULL SE which could lock in the cold air for any wave that comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You can see what I mean looking at the 144hr GFS, since the ULL has gone into SE Canada there is a sprawling 1040+HP in the middle of the country, nothing can cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS still not buying the EURO solution for day 6-7, the EURO is phasing the canadian energy with the energy in the southwest but the GFS brings the ULL SE which could lock in the cold air for any wave that comes out I haven't been paying as much attention beyond this current upcoming event, but I have had an eye on the Feb. 22-23 period. That's shown up for a little while. What did the Euro solution show (the day 6-7 that you mention)? A cutter or something like that, or a potential good event? Not that details are hugely important now, but curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I haven't been paying as much attention beyond this current upcoming event, but I have had an eye on the Feb. 22-23 period. That's shown up for a little while. What did the Euro solution show (the day 6-7 that you mention)? A cutter or something like that, or a potential good event? Not that details are hugely important now, but curious.Basically a cutter with a bit of snow on the front end then rain and a spike into the 50's briefly before the next arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Monster coastal on 240 euro but offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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