rmjokers Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would think less agreement is a sign of a better perturbation methodology. It is bothersome that we have had a number of consecutive runs with this storm where the op changes considerably and the ensembles are in good agreement with both solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would think less agreement is a sign of a better perturbation methodology. It is bothersome that we have had a number of consecutive runs with this storm where the op changes considerably and the ensembles are in good agreement with both solutions. I think in general this is true, at least within a certain time frame. You want the ensembles to represent as best as possible the amount of uncertainty and spread in possible solutions. However, you'd like to see that spread narrow closer in to the event, i.e., converge more toward a likely solution. That doesn't always happen of course...especially when there are uncertainties about various features that influence the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL- Deleting the storm thread is awesome. hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 YESSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The storm thread that didn't happen. Lol. Good thing I have a screen grab with the op screen name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL- Deleting the storm thread is awesome. hahaha Lol seriously? Kinda funny I guess. 12z GFS still has the storm coming up...too far east but there is precip not that far to the SE. I haven't looked closely but I think even here I would get a little. IDK not a horrible run IMO. Still time. It aint ovah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL- Deleting the storm thread is awesome. hahaha Yeah, I hit F5 and suddenly got an error! LOL!!! It was like "shut it down, shut it down now!" Guess we're back to seeing what happens by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Now the Euro will slam us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What happened to the other thread?? I was in the middle of a post and now it's gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The storm thread that didn't happen. Lol. Good thing I have a screen grab with the op screen name. What storm thread? Nobody ever started one, so of course it never happened. What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What happened to the other thread?? I was in the middle of a post and now it's gone We want the storm to come back after the thread scared it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The EURO needs to bend just a little today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We want the storm to come back after the thread scared it away. There were a lot of good posts in there. Plus it went off the air with no warning. I was right in the middle of typing and it shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What happened to the other thread?? I was in the middle of a post and now it's gone Freak outage and overreaction to the GFS. It wasn't that bad. Just too far east. Bring it NW 75-100 miles and we are good. See what the ens have shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We are not talking about a big shift here. 50-75 miles west and we are back in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What happened to the other thread?? I was in the middle of a post and now it's gone Stormtracker is trying to protect your true identity. By the way, tough job that you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We are not talking about a big shift here. 50-75 miles west and we are back in business. Exactly. Surprised at the overreaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There were a lot of good posts in there. Plus it went off the air with no warning. I was right in the middle of typing and it shut down.I agree. Deleting that was stupid. This isn't going ots because of a thread. If it misses it's because it doesn't phase. The runs that being it up like the nam phase the two streams. If it doesn't phase it will get squashed by the northern stream. That simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We are not talking about a big shift here. 50-75 miles west and we are back in business. The more troubling part is 6z stepped away from 0z and 12z stepped away from 6z. The shift is going the wrong way. Nothing is set in stone but we're getting close to consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Freak outage and overreaction to the GFS. It wasn't that bad. Just too far east. Bring it NW 75-100 miles and we are good. See what the ens have shortly. Yesterday people are miffed at me giving a prediction of out to sea as being bold yet the storm thread which I've been posting for 2 hours on a day off has been taken off due to a knee jerk reaction from the GFS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There were a lot of good posts in there. Plus it went off the air with no warning. I was right in the middle of typing and it shut down. Wonder if all or some of those posts will get put back in here. I was surprised at no warning too, and that it was outright deleted, not just closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was right in the middle of answering someone's question and it was pulled out. I may be reluctant to continue posting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpljr77 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This isn't fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Calm down guys, Randy said it was an accident that he deleted it and asked a mod to bring it back. Chill out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yesterday people are miffed at me giving a prediction of out to sea as being bold yet the storm thread which I've been posting for 2 hours on a day off has been taken off due to a knee jerk reaction from the GFS?? Its your fault, along with the creation of that storm thread. You better get outa here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 When does the GEFS come out, again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was right in the middle of answering someone's question and it was pulled out. I may be reluctant to continue posting here. It was an accident! Don't get your panties in a bunch, good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Freak outage and overreaction to the GFS. It wasn't that bad. Just too far east. Bring it NW 75-100 miles and we are good. See what the ens have shortly. it wasn't that far for you but most here are a ways nw if you. For me it's almost in another time zone from where I need it. You have a totally different snow climo then me. Most of your good snows are a miss here. Most if my good snows are mix/rain for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That thread is like the models... there one moment, gone the next! GFS ensembles will likely give Southern VA hope! I think we are just hoping.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I agree. Deleting that was stupid. This isn't going ots because of a thread. If it misses it's because it doesn't phase. The runs that being it up like the nam phase the two streams. If it doesn't phase it will get squashed by the northern stream. That simple. Stormtracker pulled into a Sheetz to hit the head and left his computer on the seat with Matt in the car who is now laughing at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.