eurojosh Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 today is the start of a great 3-5 weeks of winter weather here that's my proclamation I'll take the under. 1-2 weeks, max. The way under is 1-2 hours, tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I believe the euro and its ensembles busted pretty bad back in early Dec. with less lead time than this with what ended up being a non storm. do you think this could be a case of it holding too much energy back in the sw? hey Kirby, funny, i was thinking the same thing. it has a noted bias of holding energy back in the Southwest, and often corrects inside 72. that surely would help to pump height out ahead and let this puppy come further north than depicted on the Euro. I hope so anyways. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I believe that the euro will most likely trend towards the gfs. Not just because I want more snow but the euro was giving us a nice storm a couple days ago so it would not shock me if it went back towards that solution over the next 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I like the day 7-8 threat better up here but if I was southeast of dc I would definitely like the tues threat better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Give me 3-5 inches and I am happy. Pretty modest expectations. Angela T is looking for 4-6 and mapgirl won't be happy with anything less than 6-8. Beyond that it's diminishing returns (although I hear trixie is fine with 8-12 as she has a lot of experience with big events). Everyone should get in on the wind and cold, if we are to believe the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I went looking for 1993 on the Euro. :< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pretty modest expectations. Angela T is looking for 4-6 and mapgirl won't be happy with anything less than 6-8. Beyond that it's diminishing returns (although I hear trixie is fine with 8-12 as she has a lot of experience with big events). Everyone should get in on the wind and cold, if we are to believe the modeling. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just want 4" or more, and widespread closings of work and schools. I had 3.5" during the clipper overachiever (and a WSW, although it didn't quite pan out), and a little more than that would make this winter somewhat more bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll say this much, the 9Z srefs and the 6Z NAM look how I'd expect them to look if we were in store for a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I believe that the euro will most likely trend towards the gfs. Not just because I want more snow but the euro was giving us a nice storm a couple days ago so it would not shock me if it went back towards that solution over the next 24 hrs. I had almost forgotten about that. It had at least a foot here, then went suppressed the next run. Yesterdays 12z run it kinda came up but was a bit too far east with the goofy double low deal. Then last nights run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll say this much, the 9Z srefs and the 6Z NAM look how I'd expect them to look if we were in store for a hit. I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Dont know if anyone cares but the latest SREFS look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM is already looking good. Similar to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 today is the start of a great 3-5 weeks of winter weather here that's my proclamation I think its very likely we get snow in the next few weeks given the pattern. The question is does that mean 2-3" or something significant. I am bearish on this storm or any individual threat really, but bullish on the pattern probably producing at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We're starting a thread after the 12z suite, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We're starting a thread after the 12z suite, right? Wy do we even need a separate thread? Just use this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wy do we even need a separate thread? Just use this one. Feels more official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I tried to comment on this yesterday, but I couldn't post for whatever reason. It seems the EPS never stray too far from the Op. Not sure why that is, but it's rare that they have huge disagreements it seems. GEFS seem to truly "disagree" with the GFS Op far more often. I've noticed this too. Have the GEFS been upgraded too or are they still running the old resolution? I seem to remember someone stating they weren't getting upgraded at the same time. If that is the case it might at least partially explain why they differ more often than the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We're starting a thread after the 12z suite, right? 0z tonight if it isn't OTS EDIT: or not... the tracker decreed it starts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Will the 12z GFS hold the fort today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45730-february-1718th-potential-storm/ It's up. Please keep the banner out of this thread and no stupid, illogical comments about how that atmosphere is affected by humans starting a thread. You can discuss that in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM is really nice..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I also read somewhere that the nam is the best with handling baja/lows from the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I also read somewhere that the nam is the best with handling baja/lows from the southwest Yeah, I've heard that too. Where did I read that? Oh, yeah. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Jays-Wintry-Mix/121487044572077 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The NAM is as unpredictable as the most unpredictable model...especially at this range. Big issue is going to be scarcity of data from the Baja region. Not many observations out there and it's tough to know the strength of the features and energy out that way sometimes until the system is getting its act together. I worked in the southwest for many years. Yes there is satellite sampling and all that but raobs and other data is sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The NAM is as unpredictable as the most unpredictable model...especially at this range. Big issue is going to be scarcity of data from the Baja region. Not many observations out there and it's tough to know the strength of the features and energy out that way sometimes until the system is getting its act together. I worked in the southwest for many years. Yes there is satellite sampling and all that but raobs and other data is sparse. The NAM is as unpredictable as the most unpredictable model...especially at this range. Big issue is going to be scarcity of data from the Baja region. Not many observations out there and it's tough to know the strength of the features and energy out that way sometimes until the system is getting its act together. I worked in the southwest for many years. Yes there is satellite sampling and all that but raobs and other data is sparse. Interesting. Let's see what shows up as we progress. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I also read somewhere that the nam is the best with handling baja/lows from the southwest Yeah, I heard that too. Saw it on WxSouth South Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, I heard that too. Saw it on WxSouth South Facebook page.yes that is where I read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've noticed this too. Have the GEFS been upgraded too or are they still running the old resolution? I seem to remember someone stating they weren't getting upgraded at the same time. If that is the case it might at least partially explain why they differ more often than the EPS. The GEFS were upgraded as well and I believe they now run at the resolution of the old GFS Op. But this "disagreement" occurred before the upgrade as well. Not sure if it's because the EPS has so many more members and differences get enhanced in the GEFS because there are fewer members or because the perturbation methodology is different between the EPS and GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GEFS were upgraded as well and I believe they now run at the resolution of the old GFS Op. But this "disagreement" occurred before the upgrade as well. Not sure if it's because the EPS has so many more members and differences get enhanced in the GEFS because there are fewer members or because the perturbation methodology is different between the EPS and GEFS? Yes, the GEFS were upgraded and as you say they're run at the old GFS ops resolution. Interesting comments about the relative spread or disagreement between the GEFS/GFS vs. Euro/EPS. I didn't realize the EPS tended to have less disagreement (not sure if the spread tends to be less?). Not sure why that is...is it more anecdotal or has it been shown to be a real phenomenon? As for the GEFS, the most recent example of "disagreement" is that 18Z run a couple of week ago before the Super Bowl event. The ops GFS and many members were a hit for us. However, there was a small, but significant, cluster of tracks to the northwest. I don't recall what the Euro EPS showed for that. In any event, for this upcoming storm (or lack of, depending!), the disagreement between modeling systems...GFS/GEFS vs. Euro/ENS...makes things rather difficult obviously. Up above, Ers-Wxman1 mentioned the sampling of data in the Baja low being a key, which is a good point. I guess we're pretty much seeing the effects of that in terms of uncertainty of how that interacts with the system. When it interacts, we get a better solution for us (and much or all of the East Coast) with a better extend of the moisture...if not, we get a wide-right. More complicated than that I know, but that seems to be at least one of the main factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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