Ravens94 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6Z ENS. Screaming big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6Z ENS. Screaming big storm. Screams wide right if you ax me....I think Norfolk is the place to be with this one....too bad it's gonna be in the 80s there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z GFS is still great for me, but it gradually worsens as you get NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Honestly those individual members ... about half of them are wide right. So here is the deal either of this afternoon or tonight one of the two globals is gonna cave to the other. When that happens our fate will be sealed. One will be crowned king. And the other will follow suit. There will either be celebrations in the streets or mass depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Honestly those individual members ... about half of them are wide right. So here is the deal either of this afternoon or tonight one of the two globals is gonna cave to the other. When that happens our fate will be sealed. Doesn't necessarily play out that way, and probably not going to seal any fate on today's runs. One doesn't have to cave to the other. Some middle ground scenario is possible. Still lots of moving parts/tming to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 By the time the 12z GFS comes out, we will be about 2 days from the start of precipitation according to the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Fwiw, the Euro seems to have nailed the upcoming blizzard for SNE well before the GFS. I was feeding a friend of mine who lives south of Boston model info a few days ago on what "may" happen based off the Euro, while at that time the GFS was further east and weaker and showing much less impact. GFS gradually trended to the Euro solution. Just for those who wanna say the Euro hasnt been performing well lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Doesn't necessarily play out that way, and probably not going to seal any fate on today's runs. One doesn't have to cave to the other. Some middle ground scenario is possible. Still lots of moving parts/tming to be resolved. I know a blend is possible but it always seems like one caves to the other in some fashion. Any way a blend would signify the proverbial god granted mid atlantic middle finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I count 7 good solutions and 5 misses to the se. That's not really confidence building to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As long as Queens gets some I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Doesn't necessarily play out that way, and probably not going to seal any fate on today's runs. One doesn't have to cave to the other. Some middle ground scenario is possible. Still lots of moving parts/tming to be resolved.What worries me is a compromise doesn't work fir us. Right now we need the most amped solutions to win and that's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Haha depends on you're location obviously. i am quite happy with what i see on the ens for the Chesapeake bay region anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What worries me is a compromise doesn't work fir us. Right now we need the most amped solutions to win and that's not good. Yeah agree. What worries me a bit more is the Euro is so far way from what we want at this point, and as I mentioned, 3-4 days out it pretty much had today/tomorrows storm over NE nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Haha depends on you're location obviously. i am quite happy with what i see on the ens for the Chesapeake bay region anyway. True. I would even lock up any of the recent GFS op runs and be happy with a moderate snowfall for here. But the other camp which includes the Euro is troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Im kinda taking these model runs with a grain of salt until todays system rolls through and we get some better sampling tomorrow. Hopefully it continues to trend better. Hoping for at least a 2-4" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 EURO does give the East Coast a MECS Feb 21-23rd , ENS & 6z GFS on board too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 it looks okay but what is up with those lows in Georgia. That's probably killing the mean Those might be the lows we want. 00z GFS had the surface low over Georgia at that time. 00z CMC ensembles support the op. A little better than 12z, but not nearly as good as 00z GEFS. The 06z GEFS look like they backed off a bit. The 06z GFS seems to have moved towards the other three 00z models, and I think the other models will probably move towards it at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm interested in what the Nam will be showing tonight. 84hr looks like we are about to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not worth mentioning really but SREFs look good - 0.25"+ on the mean at 87h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Give me 3-5 inches and I am happy. Still have an uneasy feeling and hoping the 12z models come in good today (especially the EURO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro ensemble members are paltry. Not a single 6" solution and the vast majority do little if anything. Mean snowfall is barely 1". By far the worst run yet. Seeing that and the op isn't very encouraging. I'm not discounting the GFS/GEFS but this is the range where we typically see agreement of sorts and not opposites. I really want the euro to bust bad of course but it would be unusual for the ensembles to be so far off at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not worth mentioning really but SREFs look good - 0.25"+ on the mean at 87h Its certainly worth mentioning, and a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro ensemble members are paltry. Not a single 6" solution and the vast majority do little if anything. Mean snowfall is barely 1". By far the worst run yet. Seeing that and the op isn't very encouraging. I'm not discounting the GFS/GEFS but this is the range where we typically see agreement of sorts and not opposites. I really want the euro to bust bad of course but it would be unusual for the ensembles to be so far off at this range. Yeah its a bit worrisome. Euro seems to be performing better of late. See the current event, soon to be SNE blizzard. Had it nailed last Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Each solution has support from other models, so it's hard to know what is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Fwiw, the Euro seems to have nailed the upcoming blizzard for SNE well before the GFS. I was feeding a friend of mine who lives south of Boston model info a few days ago on what "may" happen based off the Euro, while at that time the GFS was further east and weaker and showing much less impact. GFS gradually trended to the Euro solution. Just for those who wanna say the Euro hasnt been performing well lately what LWX is saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro ensemble members are paltry. Not a single 6" solution and the vast majority do little if anything. Mean snowfall is barely 1". By far the worst run yet. Seeing that and the op isn't very encouraging. I'm not discounting the GFS/GEFS but this is the range where we typically see agreement of sorts and not opposites. I really want the euro to bust bad of course but it would be unusual for the ensembles to be so far off at this range. if the euro is correct then wouldn't you have the gfs ensembles being "so far off" instead? one way or another a set of ensembles is probably wrong but of course i'm not sure what the recent verification scores are for each model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 9z SREF look good FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro ensemble members are paltry. Not a single 6" solution and the vast majority do little if anything. Mean snowfall is barely 1". By far the worst run yet. Seeing that and the op isn't very encouraging. I'm not discounting the GFS/GEFS but this is the range where we typically see agreement of sorts and not opposites. I really want the euro to bust bad of course but it would be unusual for the ensembles to be so far off at this range. I believe the euro and its ensembles busted pretty bad back in early Dec. with less lead time than this with what ended up being a non storm. do you think this could be a case of it holding too much energy back in the sw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro ensemble members are paltry. Not a single 6" solution and the vast majority do little if anything. Mean snowfall is barely 1". By far the worst run yet. Seeing that and the op isn't very encouraging. I'm not discounting the GFS/GEFS but this is the range where we typically see agreement of sorts and not opposites. I really want the euro to bust bad of course but it would be unusual for the ensembles to be so far off at this range. I tried to comment on this yesterday, but I couldn't post for whatever reason. It seems the EPS never stray too far from the Op. Not sure why that is, but it's rare that they have huge disagreements it seems. GEFS seem to truly "disagree" with the GFS Op far more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 today is the start of a great 3-5 weeks of winter weather here that's my proclamation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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