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Mid FEB through March Threats/Snow Storms


mitchnick

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Still comes up but drier and east. Amazing like he almost new something was going to turn. Obviously there will be no relaxation with this one. What I did get from the run was an end to the NW trend at least on GFS. We shall see what the ENS say but that might be good thing.

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
317 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-040-
051>055-057-501-502-505-506-WVZ051>053-141630-
/O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0001.150214T2300Z-150215T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0001.150214T2300Z-150215T1900Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-
CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-
EASTERN LOUDOUN-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...
DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...
GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...
ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...WINCHESTER...
FRONT ROYAL...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...
ASHBURN...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
317 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES MAY RESULT IN POWER
OUTAGES. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIVING
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE
WILL CAUSE TREE AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ANTICIPATE POWER OUTAGES.
IF YOU LIVE NEAR LARGE TREES... REMAIN IN A LOWER LEVEL OF YOUR
HOME OR SEEK SHELTER ELSEWHERE IF POSSIBLE.

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Valentines day massacre on the models today?

So far at least (NAM and GFS), we're good to go. NAM looks amazing (84 hour caveats apply), and the GFS is still several inches of cold snow.

You're right though, if something bad is going to happen (in terms of guidance moving toward the Euro instead of vice versa), it's almost certainly going to happen today...by tonight we should be getting closer to a timeframe where big shifts are significantly less likely.

If the GFS was alone out on a limb I'd be much more pessimistic, but I'm encouraged that the UKIE has been looking good - it has been pretty good this winter (anecdotally anyway). Still going to be on pins and needles until the Euro comes around, though...

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Yep a high helps increase lift through convergence. The low to the nw is the opposite and can disrupt the flow in the Ccb.

This may sound overly simplified but pressure and temperature gradient is like the number one cause of precip.

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