Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro destroys us next weekend. 12 hours ago it washed my cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just crushed 12-18" so far most of va we're crazy people...salivating over day 8 output....this is the life we chose. 12-16" for all of DC metro...the tennessee valley gets 1993'd.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's been a truly prolific winter in terms of digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 we're crazy people...salivating over day 8 output....this is the life we chose. 12-16" for all of DC metro...the tennessee valley gets 1993'd.... I've never seen so many single digit mornings showing up on the models. Funky looking storm but nice looking fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 2 ft near cho. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 03z SREFs look interesting at the end of its run... lots of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ENS coming up in 11 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 EPS out to 72... will have more in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yoda, from where do you get that graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yoda, from where do you get that graphic? Weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Weatherbellit looks okay but what is up with those lows in Georgia. That's probably killing the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 84 nam looks really amped and ready to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Baja low got ejected out of a darn cannon on 5h looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I hate euro not aboard but I thinks it's bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As per tradition of 6z gfs...I expect something stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As per tradition of 6z gfs...I expect something stupidJI as requested I believe the GFS lived up to its billing for 6z lol didn't dig like the last 3 runs. Hiccup or more Euro like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still comes up but drier and east. Amazing like he almost new something was going to turn. Obviously there will be no relaxation with this one. What I did get from the run was an end to the NW trend at least on GFS. We shall see what the ENS say but that might be good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Drier and southeast is not a good thing. Qpf is the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As per tradition of 6z gfs...I expect something stupid Wasn't as beefy as 0z, but wasn't bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC317 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-040-051>055-057-501-502-505-506-WVZ051>053-141630-/O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0001.150214T2300Z-150215T1700Z//O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0001.150214T2300Z-150215T1900Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN317 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THISEVENING TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* TIMING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND A STRONGCOLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES MAY RESULT IN POWEROUTAGES. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIVINGHIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED.SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MOREWILL CAUSE TREE AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ANTICIPATE POWER OUTAGES.IF YOU LIVE NEAR LARGE TREES... REMAIN IN A LOWER LEVEL OF YOURHOME OR SEEK SHELTER ELSEWHERE IF POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's a threat window for next week and nothing more. Without the Euro and now this it is clear we still have a long way to go but a short time to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Tuesday-Wednesday is becoming a EURO flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Modeling will be all over the place between now and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 84 nam looks really amped and ready to come north Yeah that second low looks to be in the right position.. The 84 nam is a like the 240hr gfs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Valentines day massacre on the models today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Valentines day massacre on the models today? So far at least (NAM and GFS), we're good to go. NAM looks amazing (84 hour caveats apply), and the GFS is still several inches of cold snow. You're right though, if something bad is going to happen (in terms of guidance moving toward the Euro instead of vice versa), it's almost certainly going to happen today...by tonight we should be getting closer to a timeframe where big shifts are significantly less likely. If the GFS was alone out on a limb I'd be much more pessimistic, but I'm encouraged that the UKIE has been looking good - it has been pretty good this winter (anecdotally anyway). Still going to be on pins and needles until the Euro comes around, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 this is where lack of high hurtsYep a high helps increase lift through convergence. The low to the nw is the opposite and can disrupt the flow in the Ccb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yep a high helps increase lift through convergence. The low to the nw is the opposite and can disrupt the flow in the Ccb. This may sound overly simplified but pressure and temperature gradient is like the number one cause of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Had to sleep last night so I missed the runs. But as always the precipitation shield will be bigger than modeled. For once I am not in yhe best position for this one. Fringe job a very real possibility out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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