mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 mixed emotions on this map at 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest I see too the Euro misses the 1st wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks better than 12z but worse than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The euro is still sticking with the basic idea....Still to be determined what happens in the next few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I see the Baja low getting pulled in at 72 like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I see the Baja low getting pulled in at 72 like the gfs I don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't at 48 closed low off Baja at 72 low over central NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 day 4 there's nothing going on from what I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like complete miss to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 at 48 closed low off Baja at 72 low over central NM they aren't the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Blah. At h90 it looks like it's doing the same thing it did at 12Z but doesn't appear to be as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS/GEFS/UKIE vs Euro/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Been studying the the last few runs of the GFS. Ever since yesterday at 18z you can see the 500mb starting to evolve. Digging in the Artic Jet s/w faster but a washed out progressive Polar jet s/w (over the 4 corners region) couldnt phase with the Baja energy (southern jet s/w) in earlier runs but still managed to phase late with the Arctic Jet s/w and develop a reflection off the coast. Now we have a vigorous Polor Jet s/w showing up again digging and phasing in with baja energy. The Arctic jet s/w tries to dig in and get a full phase of all three streams. There will be a limit to how far west/inland(rainy) the low would track even with a full phase due to the position/orientation of the Polar Vortex, but you can see it each run the phase is closer and closer so much so that it pulls the PV south west raising heights along the coast. The bagginess(relaxation in confluence) at 500mb between the 50/50 low and the PV is allowing this to come up the coast vs swept out to sea...This is very close on the GFS to being a full phase of three streams which some of the individual ensemble members have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just great! Oh well. I expected it would have moved in the direction of the GFS...maybe not a big hit, but in the ballpark at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 GL Low killing it....a new GL low is seems http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I didn't study the low placement but looks a lot like the 0z run last night...wide right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wonder if the Euro is still considered an outlier..... considering that the obvious trend today has been North and this run hasn't budged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ha! Well actually, a nice chilled white to be honest! I like red, but with a good meal. I drink white wine just for sipping by itself. Of course, there's always some Scotch and Drambuie in the liquor cabinet, should they ever call! I like a good VA Caberet Franc any time of the year. Even summer. I know. I am strange that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wow. Didn't expect this. It's a battle. Euro/ggem miss south Ukie front runner hit Gfs coastal Gefs agrees wirh op ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I didn't study the low placement but looks a lot like the 0z run last night...wide right.... honestly, the way the Euro has been this year with its 4 day hits for us only to go north, perfect is all I can think of from this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just great! Oh well. I expected it would have moved in the direction of the GFS...maybe not a big hit, but in the ballpark at least. it's not in the ballpark...it is a complete whiff...it went east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wow. Didn't expect this. It's a battle. Euro/ggem miss south Ukie front runner hit Gfs coastal Gefs agrees wirh op ? GEM gets us some light qpf and it wouldn't take a whole lot to come further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Model War's at its finest. Yep. It's nice to get as good GEFS support to the operational GFS. What we can hope for now is that even while the 00Z op EC is still a miss, more of those 50 EC members will be on board (less suppression) when the 00Z EC ensembles come out. I know I'd feel a bit more confident if that were the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 looks angry on day 5 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 it's not in the ballpark...it is a complete whiff...it went east of 12z That's what I mean. I would have expected it to at least be in the ballpark of what the GFS showed. But it's not. Very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 When do the Euro Ensembles come out? I need to decide whether to stay up for them or not. 3am I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 When do the Euro Ensembles come out? I need to decide whether to stay up for them or not. Late...I believe around 8Z(?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Canadian showing a high of 28 in Jacksonville for Thursday. Unreal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro destroys us next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wow huge snowstorm day 7/8 on euro 2 feet showing up in tenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro destroys us next weekend. Just crushed 12-18" so far most of va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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