Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks South to me. Looks at h5 vort panels. It's pretty good. Low will turn the corner and its juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 When I'm the earliest in pbp and calling out trends someone is falling down on the job. Where is Yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL- I was just going to post the exact same thing. Baja energy in n central mexico getting sucked right in. This is a good sign. Until the next model comes in and doesn't do it. Just kidding and I like the look of the NAm but it is still at the end of its run so I'll wait until there is more convergence amongst the ensemble and operational runs. The big ridge off the west coast and AK west and the digging downstream is what is helping. If something crashes the ridge, then we might get a flatter look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks South to me. Then you haven't been watching. It's 200 miles north with precip vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks at h5 vort panels. It's pretty good. Low will turn the corner and its juiced. You're right, looks pretty good. It's nice to have support for the 18z GFS with the Baja low phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think that's true and most people do forget the sheared out messes. I suspect that the north trend works better with a positive NAO than with a strongly negative one.Yeah probably. This does seem like a case it can come north especially if the low isn't crappy. I'm just not ready to commit given the Euro/ensembles and the general bounciness of the ops. I guess I just don't see it as totally illogical that it could largely slide south still. But maybe because I always liked that option more than the west ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Until the next model comes in and doesn't do it. Just kidding and I like the look of the NAm but it is still at the end of its run so I'll wait until there is more convergence amongst the ensemble and operational runs. The big ridge off the west coast and AK west and the digging downstream is what is helping. If something crashes the ridge, then we might get a flatter look I'm just glad to see another model show it. Even if the nam. Gfs on deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Honestly an overhead track probably yields us just as many inches pre flip as a nice track off ORF I would think, so let's get this as amped as it can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah probably. This does seem like a case it can come north especially if the low isn't crappy. I'm just not ready to commit given the Euro/ensembles and the general bounciness of the ops. I guess I just don't see it as totally illogical that it could largely slide south still. But maybe because I always liked that option more than the west ones. The strong ridge make me think a southward miss might be the more likely scenario but if something crashed that ridge then the digging we're seeing on the GFS and NAm wouldn't be as strong and the flow might not back enough to get us. I persoma;;y think a pure miss is the least likely scenario but I'd never write than in a CWG piece this early with the Euro and its ensembles being so suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Honestly an overhead track probably yields us just as many inches pre flip as a nice track off ORF I would think, so let's get this as amped as it can get No it wouldn't, that would change the thermal structure a ton and our flow aloft would bring in a warm layer quikcer than you'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's not scoring the best. For future reference, here's the link to the model verification scores (I always have a hard time finding this): http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Click on "GFS 4 Cycles" in the top left corner. 18z has not been great recently, but the differences are usually so small that it's best to just use the most recent run. Even if 18z at 96 hours is on average less accurate than 12z at 96 hours, the 18z at 90 hours will usually be more accurate than 12z at 96 hours. Thanks for the link. I've bookmarked that before but still lost it. On kind-of-topic, I like when Wes stays up late. It makes me think we've got a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The strong ridge make me think a southward miss might be the more likely scenario but if something crashed that ridge then the digging we're seeing on the GFS and NAm wouldn't be as strong and the flow might not back enough to get us. I persoma;;y think a pure miss is the least likely scenario but I'd never write than in a CWG piece this early with the Euro and its ensembles being so suppressed. I don't think I favor a pure miss either. Ensemble blend would suggest a light event. Not sure I buy the GFS as is though.. seasonal trend is that we get screwed somehow more than a north or south or east or west move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No it wouldn't, that would change the thermal structure a ton and our flow aloft would bring in a warm layer quikcer than you'd like. Yep, go back to my long post on the last page. This is truly actually a thread the needle event for us since we have no HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'd be surprised if our area gets 1". Storm is going to move fast. I suppose some sort of elongated shield well in front of the low is possible but getting more than 1" of qpf with no block and barely a sub 1k low isn't common I agree that it's not going to be the type of storm that sits on top of us. But an elongated shield is not unlikely, and if this brings up enough moisture from the south and the low passes close enough, it could dump more than 1" on us. It's what the models were showing a couple of days ago, and I'm not confident enough in the track at this point to have any certainty that they won't show it again. But you have a lot more experience with this stuff than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yep, go back to my long post on the last page. This is truly actually a thread the needle event for us since we have no HP to the north. I read that over, and if I may say, it's a good overview discussion of the situation. Lays out the general scenarios pretty clearly. Now, I guess, we sit and watch over the next day or so and see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's incredible how quiet it gets in this place before a big model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I like the look of the GFS so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 QPF into SW VA at 84 on 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 maybe a lone snowflake mixed with a lone raindrop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS looks good so far at 84. Baja low comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I like the look of the GFS so far heights are a bit higher than 18Z at 66 hrs. vs. 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS @69 500mb backing in more west and digging with northern s/w coming in from Canada. S/w over the 4 corners is about to phase with Baja energy which is ejecting earlier than 18z. This is gonna be a good hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS wants to phase energy from the Baja low again. I'm only out to 75 but I'd guess it has good implications for us. Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Def going to be north again. Now we need the Euro to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like a big hit as long as we're cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snowing at DCA at 90.... 1003mb SLP in SW GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Really nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 And we have a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 4" on ground by 7pm - DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 could it be the Miller A we've been waiting for nice run through 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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