Fozz Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 23 is good but compared to Boston it has to be a gut punch. Most of your snow came from a storm that was a bust for you so it wasnt even enjoyable right? NYC and Boston aren't even in the same league.... NYC has more in common with Leesburg climo than with Hartford, let alone Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Guess its better than nothing It doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 23 is good but compared to Boston it has to be a gut punch. Most of your snow came from a storm that was a bust for you so it wasnt even enjoyable right? Yes. Juno was forecasted to drop 1-2+ feet but failed. All of the storms that crushed Boston skimmed NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z NAM 1st clipper 1-2" http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150209+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 FWIW- around 90% of euro ensemble members have a cold light snow event on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 and if wondering the odds of the vort getting so far south as the NAM shows at 84 hrs, just look at today's http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=006&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150209+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 FWIW- around 90% of euro ensemble members have a cold light snow event on Saturday. is that from clipper 1 or 2 Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 is that from clipper 1 or 2 Bob? Clipper 2 Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 bob i am still seeing mixed solutions for next week but more surpressed than what 12z GFS showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Both 516 DM shortwaves trying to throw back Atlantic moisture. Not going to work too well. Outside chance someone can pull off 4 if they get windexed in the dgz but that's about the only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 bob i am still seeing mixed solutions for next week but more surpressed than what 12z GFS showed All over the place with timing and track. I will say the majority are cold. Even the ones that track overhead or west have a decent antecedent airmass before any mixing occurs. GEFS are mixed as well. Op solution don't have a lot of use right now that far out. There's really no sense in thinking too much about it. At least specifics anyways. We're in the game at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm going all in on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0ZGFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11,10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFSENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEANCENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY11, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 CPC has lost confidence in the ECMWF. Wasn't it just a few weeks ago when seemingly every forecast included 40-50% of the Euro ensemble mean. Anyhow, the forecast itself calls for below normal temperatures and average(6-10 day) and above-average (8-14 day) precipitation. Will all of it be cold rain ... only time willl tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm going all in on Saturday As it stands right now, there's not a lot of upside above 2" or so unless there's a good shift with the vort track and slp placement. That's a lot to ask with the track dropping in from MI. We need it to be like 3 states west. lol A cold 1-2" event followed by a very cold and windy day is fine by me. I'll enjoy it if it happens while everyone else complains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 As it stands right now, there's not a lot of upside above 2" or so unless there's a good shift with the vort track and slp placement. That's a lot to ask with the track dropping in from MI. We need it to be like 3 states west. lol A cold 1-2" event followed by a very cold and windy day is fine by me. I'll enjoy it if it happens while everyone else complains. Cue the, ratios will save us talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Im literally like 15 miles west of NYC with only 15". The real heartbreaker is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Im literally like 15 miles west of NYC with only 15". The real heartbreaker is here. how much digital snow have you had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 how much digital snow have you had Expected 18" from Blizzard only got around 3.5". So yeah it kind of explains it. Snow88, my NYC bud from NYC Forum. Got close to 12" that storm. Once again 15 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Is a pattern shift still in the cards like it was discussed earlier today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 As it stands right now, there's not a lot of upside above 2" or so unless there's a good shift with the vort track and slp placement. That's a lot to ask with the track dropping in from MI. We need it to be like 3 states west. lol A cold 1-2" event followed by a very cold and windy day is fine by me. I'll enjoy it if it happens while everyone else complains. 1-2" of cold powder would make for a perfect Saturday afternoon. Hopeful that by that time we're tracking something / anything that would give us all some WSW love. Just need lady luck to visit. I know. Preaching to the choir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 lets just hope we have a storm when we all cash in heavy snow (NYC-DC-PHL-CT) and boston torches and heavy rains. Heck, I would be posting pictures in NE Forum 24/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The last 2 pics on jays wintry mix says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 NYC and Boston aren't even in the same league.... NYC has more in common with Leesburg climo than with Hartford, let alone Boston. Agreed. My yearly average is actually the same as Central Park. They will hit climo this year. Philly south is the screw zone this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The last 2 pics on jays wintry mix says it all That guy has been awful this year...hype master Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 As it stands right now, there's not a lot of upside above 2" or so unless there's a good shift with the vort track and slp placement. That's a lot to ask with the track dropping in from MI. We need it to be like 3 states west. lol A cold 1-2" event followed by a very cold and windy day is fine by me. I'll enjoy it if it happens while everyone else complains. 3 states west and maybe a state and a half or 2 states south would help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 18Z gfs is liking the reforming clipper to our SE too the Atlantic is all block up so it is forced to our SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18Z gfs is liking the reforming clipper to our SE too the Atlantic is all block up so it is forced to our SE The vort dug a tick deeper and further west. Need more of that...still not a great look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The vort dug a tick deeper and further west. Need more of that...still not a great look for us. if its deeper and more west and still looks bad.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The vort dug a tick deeper and further west. Need more of that...still not a great look for us. yea this run won't lose fans. maybe even gain a couple. and it's only monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 The vort dug a tick deeper and further west. Need more of that...still not a great look for us. I'm just shooting for an inch or 2....it's the best we can ever do with these things anything is a bonus vs. what the models were showing as recently as 12Z-18Z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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