BTRWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 it made one last night I like where we stand overall. In time, even if the Euro jumps over a couple hurdles away from an ots solution, then the GFS may have just enough time to readjust to a potential nECS system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The mean is a bit deceptive, I think, due to differences in the 1st and 2nd wave on a bunch of the members. 20/50 members give us 4"+ of snow regionwide with a ton of big tits in there. i think we need a majority of the ens members to show that before we get too excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Quite a model war going on ... How much should we pay attention to New England's Sunday storm. It seems like if it hugs the coast like the GFS solution it creates a transient 50-50 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 nobody punted it last night. There was a severe panic attack by the board. you might be confusing The 84 hour namPeople were nervous but there were plenty of comments about it being 18z and such. Honestly these run to run score differences are probably so small they are basically meaningless as far as we are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Believe it or not it is still a thread the needle event. There is no true HP in a good spot. I personally don't love the setup, but at this point it is all we have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Believe it or not it is still a thread the needle event. There is no true HP in a good spot. I personally don't love the setup, but at this point it is all we have... We waste a ton of great setups here and have a knack for scoring things with banged up flawed setups. I love the setup because it's coming up from the south. Something we have rarely seen with cold air in place this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 nobody punted it last night. There was a severe panic attack by the board. you might be confusing The 84 hour nam I thought I read at least one punt either last night or this morning. Hence the tone of my Facebook page post and the ovation I gave Matt's post that it was not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I thought I read at least one punt either last night or this morning. Hence the tone of my Facebook page post and the ovation I gave Matt's post that it was not over. Thanks...18z GEFS mean looks very similar to 12z which isn't bad since 12z didn't look that bad...the members are still all over the place.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm just making fun of people who tossed 18z yday and will hug it today.. There's a lot of making fun that can happen around here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks...18z GEFS mean looks very similar to 12z which isn't bad since 12z didn't look that bad...the members are still all over the place.. Members are spread about the same as 12z. Same # of hits vs tweeners vs misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 its really amazing that with a strong northern stream, a storm from the south can make it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Members are spread about the same as 12z. Same # of hits vs tweeners vs misses. Pretty much, maybe a little better look overall. I hope it comes more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know that Ian was kidding, but I think it was das (and if not, then maybe Chris with the red tag) that said the 18z gfs was actually scoring the best. And I'm just saying and not suggesting that this is right. It's not scoring the best. For future reference, here's the link to the model verification scores (I always have a hard time finding this): http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Click on "GFS 4 Cycles" in the top left corner. 18z has not been great recently, but the differences are usually so small that it's best to just use the most recent run. Even if 18z at 96 hours is on average less accurate than 12z at 96 hours, the 18z at 90 hours will usually be more accurate than 12z at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thx to ers-wxman1, I've updated my sig: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thx to ers-wxman1, I've updated my sig: Damnitttttt, I was going to do the same. All in fun, I like having him post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021318/gfs_asnow_us_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021212/gfs_asnow_us_26.png 18z gfs looks a lot like the 12z Thursday gfs. Almost exactly actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thx to ers-wxman1, I've updated my sig:celebrating to soon man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 celebrating to soon man Oh yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 celebrating to soon man Way too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Where is the guy who was chastizing us last night about how he was protecting us from being unrealistically hopeful? Have the models showed a major rainer yet? That's the only outcome not covered in last 36 hours. Like I said 5 days ago, TX/LA birthing grounds always interest me, never waver on that, and we will do OK once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 celebrating to soon man Ji, I'm shocked - SHOCKED - at you. This is it! I think you are experiencing some kind of psychosis due to snow deprivation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Damnitttttt, I was going to do the same. All in fun, I like having him post here. But of course. Now, back to the business at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I hope it comes more north. Maybe a tick more north but maybe better if it stays the track and deepens a tad more when it hits the coast. Kind of a fine line between too close/mix and too far/weak/less qpf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What a turn of events lol (maybe). Worst year of models in terms of getting 3-4 straight model runs in a row that look the same in the D3-6 frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Where is the guy who was chastizing us last night about how he was protecting us from being unrealistically hopeful? Have the models showed a major rainer yet? That's the only outcome not covered in last 36 hours. Like I said 5 days ago, TX/LA birthing grounds always interest me, never waver on that, and we will do OK once again. wut that makes no sense. nobody remembers what you said five minutes ago, let alone five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Even if 18z at 96 hours is on average less accurate than 12z at 96 hours, the 18z at 90 hours will usually be more accurate than 12z at 96 hours. 18z gfs was phasing the baja energy at 84 hours. That's the real key to getting a stronger storm. It can still make it up this way without but if the phase happens and things are more juiced across texas/gulf coast, it can only help our chances. I'm focusing on that. FWIW- the 18z nam was not even close. It was cutoff and spinning over baja 12z gfs @ hr 90 has it open but still hanging back over the gulf of CA. 18z gfs @ hr 84 had the energy over n central mexico. This is a very important feature to keep an eye on. Phasing still doesn't guaranty anything of course. But it can really help. The large difference in precip expanse and strength in TX/gulf coast with the 18z vs 12z was because of this. Were getting to the range now where this piece of the puzzle will be resolved one way or the other. The 0z runs tomorrow should mostly agree on what happens in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Believe it or not it is still a thread the needle event. There is no true HP in a good spot. I personally don't love the setup, but at this point it is all we have... Yep, all we have and we don't have a choice. Everyone is glad to see this latest GFS run give us a good track, good moisture, and back to showing a solid event. However, I'm nervous about what the Euro ensembles showed (12Z), and the current 18Z GEFS don't lend a whole lot of confidence one way or another. I think the fact that the ensembles are more or less all over the place means we'll see the ops throw just about everything at us in the next day or so (mostly too far south than too far north, I think). One would hope by late tomorrow or getting into Sunday, we'll be honing in on an actual solution...and hopefully a good one for us of course! I think what Bob said earlier that the goal posts range from over us to wide right (having gone to FSU, I'm all too familiar with wide right, hahaha!) is a reasonable estimate right now. I personally would prefer something more juiced up like this latest GFS run, but it's a fine line between that and getting mostly rain from too much amp in this pattern. Actually, the solutions from the other day or so that had us getting several inches of snow followed by mix/sleet/ice (and maybe a short period of rain) and then freezing after that were not too bad in my opinion. I think those went close to overhead, maybe a tad east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thx to ers-wxman1, I've updated my sig: Say what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Say what? It might look something like this There won't be a north shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So everyone's hopeful with the GFS north shift. I'm not very. Still dealing with the same features or lack thereof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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