North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mobile, cannot get to model run, does it make it north of DC toward Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just got back to office after getting blitz q ith owners of company at bar. I love this run. 18z GFS looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty good run. Too bad it's 18z! 18z has been leading the shifts lately. 0z usually looks similar overall. As soon as I saw the baja energy get absorbed I got a little excited. Only way to knock the confluence is a stronger storm. Might be a west track at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z yesterday and 18z today nearly identical 18z yesterday and 12z today nearly identical 00z yesterday and 06z today busts Uncannily symmetric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mobile, cannot get to model run, does it make it north of DC toward Baltimore? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like a solid 6" event for DC, more southeast, less NW....sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks yoda, good news all. Puts a spring in the step. Happy weekend everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS phased in the baja energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mobile, cannot get to model run, does it make it north of DC toward Baltimore? Yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mobile, cannot get to model run, does it make it north of DC toward Baltimore? Lol, it makes it to Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's about a 15 hour event. checking soundings to see if we mix...what a nice new problem to have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mobile, cannot get to model run, does it make it north of DC toward Baltimore? yes, it's good for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z has been leading the shifts lately. 0z usually looks similar overall. As soon as I saw the baja energy get absorbed I got a little excited. Only way to knock the confluence is a stronger storm. Might be a west track at 0z.Ops are still too jumpy to have much faith but you never say never to a north trend from 4 days out. Now watch it end up too northwest lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Somebody in Maryland did something to get docked an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's about a 15 hour event. checking soundings to see if we mix...what a nice new problem to have Just lock the track up and let the chips fall. Please lock the track up. somebody...please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 meh......too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's about a 15 hour event. checking soundings to see if we mix...what a nice new problem to have Surface temps during event are in the 20s... and no mix... pure snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's about a 15 hour event. checking soundings to see if we mix...what a nice new problem to have not even remotely close to mixing...temps at DCA 26-27 whole event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ops are still too jumpy to have much faith but you never say never to a north trend from 4-5 days out. Now watch it end up too northwest lol. Baja energy got absorbed at hr84. If the next 3 runs can hold that I think we stand a chance. I don't even care if it goes too far NW. I just don't want a whiff. It would make me a little angry and I've done pretty well keeping level headed this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 lol. Not falling for anything till Sunday That's like 96 hours after Jay's Wintry Mix fell for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 not even remotely close to mixing...temps at DCA 26-27 whole event No mixing even over to Annapolis (and across the Bay). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS trying really hard to get sub zero temps in DC Wed night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow!!!! can I get your email address? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No mixing even over to Annapolis (and across the Bay). It's so silly to parse these runs, yet so fun anyway. I think in terms of solutions most would take a mod/high QPF event with mixing over a 0.15" tickler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's so silly to parse these runs, yet so fun anyway. I think in terms of solutions most would take a mod/high QPF event with mixing over a 0.15" tickler This. A se scraper with pity dust makes me sad just thinking about it. Any bets on the 18z gefs mean track moving nw from 12z? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think this 18z GFS run is that surprising given the GEFS have generally been north of the southern solutions. Strange that we had a favorable turn of events on the OP run inside of 100 hours though given our track record this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think, if the strengthening trend continues. We could eventually see the 500mb pattern swing the low from E NC into SNE, so DC/Philly get dumped on and Boston rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's so silly to parse these runs, yet so fun anyway. I think in terms of solutions most would take a mod/high QPF event with mixing over a 0.15" tickler I cannot imagine who would take the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Baja energy got absorbed at hr84. If the next 3 runs can hold that I think we stand a chance. I don't even care if it goes too far NW. I just don't want a whiff. It would make me a little angry and I've done pretty well keeping level headed this year.Yeah it looks a good bit better at 500 than last night .. Haven't looked super close at all runs mostly been mobile last two days. I figured either or was still possible but once you start shifting north in this range often it doesn't fully reverse so there's that. Hopefully everything settled down a bit the next 12-24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS trying really hard to get sub zero temps in DC Wed nightKeep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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