BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So it looks like both the euro and gfs shifted a little north. Wouldn't be surprised to see the gfs move back towards the 12z Thursday solution either during tonights runs or tomorrow mornings runs. 12z Thursday gave most of Maryland 5 or 6 inches. Why? Do you think it will phase more at 500 in SW? The low off Maine will move out quicker or not be as strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 can someone post the euro mean snow totals....id be very interested to see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Why? Do you think it will phase more at 500 in SW? The low off Maine will move out quicker or not be as strong? Not expecting too much more of a phase but the I would expect the low to move off the coast of a Maine a bit quicker. The retrograding low a couple weeks back in the blizzard didn't really end up retrograding and moved north a little quicker. This next low is modeled to move almost due east between hours 48 and 54 which I'm not really buying based on what has happened this year. If that low continues its northeast trajectory it will head up to northeast Canada earlier and allow the storm to come more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Why? Do you think it will phase more at 500 in SW? The low off Maine will move out quicker or not be as strong? The reason he thinks this is because it would give him more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am not even going to pay attention to the 18z suite... unless it is a monster hit for us. Bring on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So we have had to the west, big hit, south, no storm at all, some storm but still mostly south. Sounds like you are suggesting the mean of those solutions is a moderate event for us. Pretty bold call, not sure there is support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Euro ens eman is pretty much a miss to the south. I little light snow on it but not even .10" liquid equivalent. That's not a great sign. The mean is a bit deceptive, I think, due to differences in the 1st and 2nd wave on a bunch of the members. 20/50 members give us 4"+ of snow regionwide with a ton of big hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The mean is a bit deceptive, I think, due to differences in the 1st and 2nd wave on a bunch of the members. 20/50 members give us 4"+ of snow regionwide with a ton of big hits in there. Interesting, I'd like to see a little more agreement. The NMA doesn't like us through 84hrs, We'd have to take our chances with the later wave if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The mean is a bit deceptive, I think, due to differences in the 1st and 2nd wave on a bunch of the members. 20/50 members give us 4"+ of snow regionwide with a ton of big hits in there. What did 0z look like compared to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The mean is a bit deceptive, I think, due to differences in the 1st and 2nd wave on a bunch of the members. 20/50 members give us 4"+ of snow regionwide with a ton of big hits in there. I saw that. 11 6" or more solutions. But it's been a steady decline. The mean is like 2.5". We were 4-6" just 3 runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I saw that. 11 6" or more solutions. But it's been a steady decline. The mean is like 2.5". We were 4-6" just 3 runs ago. 2.5" is still very different than less than 0.1" liquid that Wes said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2.5" is still very different than less than 0.1" liquid that Wes said... True, mean precip is between .25-.30 for the period. The bigger issue is that about half the members don't give us meaningful precip at all. A good # of whiffs and less than .10. Time for changes though. I'm far from axing the threat. Today was a sideways to slightly better move overall across guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 True, mean precip is between .25-.30 for the period. The bigger issue is that about half the members don't give us meaningful precip at all. A good # of whiffs and less than .10. Time for changes though. I'm far from axing the threat. Today was a sideways to slightly better move overall across guidance. What did u think of 84 hr NAM? Anything notable to you? I didn't see much that made me feel anything. I was looking for the wave out west to see how far it digs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sounds like you are suggesting the mean of those solutions is a moderate event for us. Pretty bold call, not sure there is support. No, I am stating that other than a rain storm right on top of us all the bases have been covered so perhaps models can switch their mode to what will most likely happen rather than all the options that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What did u think of 84 hr NAM? Anything notable to you? I didn't see much that made me feel anything. I was looking for the wave out west to see how far it digs I don't look at the nam late in the run too much. Just looks at 84 and it looks pretty flat and uninspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't look at the nam late in the run too much. Just looks at 84 and it looks pretty flat and uninspiring.Roger. That could be the bumper sticker for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z gfs is phasing the baja energy by hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 90 1009mb MSLP in SW AL 93 1009mb MSLP in S AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z gfs is phasing the baja energy by hr84 Looking like a major northward shift compared to the last few runs....fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 More amp in front of the vort and phased energy from the sw sure juiced things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SN in S VA at 96... QPF knocking on DCA door Snowing in DCA at 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty good run. Too bad it's 18z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 99 moderate snow EZF and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like about 4-5" on ground for DC by 1 am Tuesday night with maybe more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 102 and 105 DCA snow area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty good run. Too bad it's 18z! Much better run for us... the phase helped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty good run. Too bad it's 18z! didn't the 18z gfs start the suppressed bs yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am liking these rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 didn't the 18z gfs start the suppressed bs yesterday?I'm just making fun of people who tossed 18z yday and will hug it today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like about 4-5" on ground for DC by 1 am Tuesday night with maybe more to comelol. Not falling for anything till Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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