packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's interesting how the UK Met and Canadian basically key on the 1st wave, and the GFS/Euro go with the 2nd wave. Much to iron out. By the way, I'm hearing the GEFS is wetter. I'm not sure if that translates up to you guys or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You are really blowing this out of proportion! All because you want it to snow and I made a bold statement that it would get suppressed south. I'm not chesty about anything. I'm a humble person and weather prediction is one cause for that. I'm no better than anyone else in the field. I'm telling you the overall progressive pattern doesn't support a storm so why get excited only to be dissapointed later? Let's put this into some weather board reality. Not sure how humble comes in here because your observations have not been confirmed yet. Most of this board section are winter weather lovers, we really will not admire someone who try to tell us things for "our own good" so we will not be "disappointed later". It's been tried before to help straighten us out and there is always push back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 only in the mid atlantic do we hug models at this range...we have been doing it for years... heh, not just here. We all do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 heh, not just here. We all do it.They don't call us weenies for nothin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 only in the mid atlantic do we hug models at this range...we have been doing it for years... When our sub forum was making digital snowmen at 96+ hours for the storm at the beginning of February, I checked in on the NE forum. They were high-fiving each other. They knew the storm that became their first blizzard of the season was theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Everyone hugs models these days imo. New England guys just assume everything will hit them and they are usually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 They don't call us weenies for nothin'! A little off-topic, but it would be interesting to learn where all these weather slang terms came from initially. wx, weenie, goofus, euro, atari, xbox...if only we could archive them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 heh, not just here. We all do it. The SNE guys would never assume a solution like this is locked in...Of course they get more snow....but none of them takes suppressed or any other solution seriously at day 4. The northern stream can drop in earlier and we will get a storm. There is nothing about the pattern that prevents that solution. It is harder to phase in a progressive pattern. Even if the phase is too late, it can still come more north and west than the models are suggesting. It could also get suppressed and screw us of course. But the models didn't have no clue 18 runs out and then suddenly hit paydirt and lock in 15 runs out. 12 GFS is good evidence of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's interesting how the UK Met and Canadian basically key on the 1st wave, and the GFS/Euro go with the 2nd wave. Much to iron out. By the way, I'm hearing the GEFS is wetter. I'm not sure if that translates up to you guys or not. The members show about the same number of hits as 6z did, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The SNE guys would never assume a solution like this is locked in...Of course they get more snow....but none of them takes suppressed or any other solution seriously at day 4. The northern stream can drop in earlier and we will get a storm. There is nothing about the pattern that prevents that solution. It is harder to phase in a progressive pattern. Even if the phase is too late, it can still come more north and west than the models are suggesting. It could also get suppressed and screw us of course. But the models didn't have no clue 18 runs out and then suddenly hit paydirt and lock in 15 runs out. 12 GFS is good evidence of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEFS mean is ~0.4" for me and you. Tons of spread among the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The SNE guys would never assume a solution like this is locked in...Of course they get more snow....but none of them takes suppressed or any other solution seriously at day 4. The northern stream can drop in earlier and we will get a storm. There is nothing about the pattern that prevents that solution. It is harder to phase in a progressive pattern. Even if the phase is too late, it can still come more north and west than the models are suggesting. It could also get suppressed and screw us of course. But the models didn't have no clue 18 runs out and then suddenly hit paydirt and lock in 15 runs out. 12 GFS is good evidence of that. My post was mainly in jest. Outside of 72 hours, fairly sizeable shifts happen way more often than not. The only times you can really throw out a run is when it just doesn't fit the setup. The goalposts right now are probably between a right over head track and a miss (but relatively close) off of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEFS mean is ~0.4" for me and you. Tons of spread among the members.Ops are doing pretty poorly with this event so far. GEFS/EPS blend is probably best for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEFS mean is ~0.4" for me and you. Tons of spread among the members. Anyone saying this early they know what the end result is fooling themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think someone hit the weenie button before running the 12z gfs. 2 more snow events before d12. Reminds me a little of last year with no real blocking but the ns/pv forcing storms under us. We got lucky a lot last year. Notsomuch this year but it looks like we will have more chances before the month is out. The pattern looks fairly stable. STJ is active. EPO and PNA seem to want to stay somewhat in our favor. Of course no sign yet the NAO or AO want to lend a hand but we probably continue to get these type of opportunities, and while I remain skeptical that any single storm has a high probability the law of averages suggests given enough opportunities one could score a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 My post was mainly in jest. Outside of 72 hours, fairly sizeable shifts happen way more often than not. The only times you can really throw out a run is when it just doesn't fit the setup. The goalposts right now are probably between a right over head track and a miss (but relatively close) off of OBX. In most winters you can fade snow here from any range and be right. Because our climo sucks and we can be screwed in so many different ways. At this point in the game I find the "climo sucks/seasonal trend" reasoning much more compelling than pattern based reasoning. Nothing about the pattern prevents us from getting a few inches of snow, even if via fringe or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 if we hug the models here it's because we have more to lose/fear than SNE. we know it can slip away from us easily which is why we continue to watch each subsequent run after a good run. i also think this hobby partly caters to control freaks imo. we can't control the weather, so we need reassurance every single run that nothing bad will happen. for that reason, i try not to get too high. it's tough, though. when i see a good run, i'm like everyone else. i see dark greens and yellows on the radar, road stickage, etc. then when a bad run shows up, that hope is lost...until the next run brings it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The pattern looks fairly stable. STJ is active. EPO and PNA seem to want to stay somewhat in our favor. Of course no sign yet the NAO or AO want to lend a hand but we probably continue to get these type of opportunities, and while I remain skeptical that any single storm has a high probability the law of averages suggests given enough opportunities one could score a hit. "hits" are pretty subjective. You're a KU chaser. Many (not all) of us would be happy with 3-4" changing to sleet or 2" in JYO and 5" in Calvert County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The SNE guys would never assume a solution like this is locked in...Of course they get more snow....but none of them takes suppressed or any other solution seriously at day 4. The northern stream can drop in earlier and we will get a storm. There is nothing about the pattern that prevents that solution. It is harder to phase in a progressive pattern. Even if the phase is too late, it can still come more north and west than the models are suggesting. It could also get suppressed and screw us of course. But the models didn't have no clue 18 runs out and then suddenly hit paydirt and lock in 15 runs out. 12 GFS is good evidence of that. SNE guys have had many more storms that have come their way than we have had based on their location. They are more used to it and aren't as emotional about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Decent look to not make fast decisions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow, GFS continues to make pretty substantial run to run changes at 500 mb. Much closer to an earlier phase and some signs of slight negative tilt this run. More vort energy at the base of the trough. If this is the start of a trend, there is quite a bit of room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Decent look to not make fast decisions Yep looks like 4 solid hits, 3 complete whiffs and 3 or 4 "tweeners" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yep looks like 4 solid hits, 3 complete whiffs and 3 or 4 "tweeners" And another 36-48 hours before spread gets pretty tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gfs has like 5 events in the day 8 to 16 period. We'd be catching up to last year quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 "hits" are pretty subjective. You're a KU chaser. Many (not all) of us would be happy with 3-4" changing to sleet or 2" in JYO and 5" in Calvert County. I think a KU in this pattern is very unlikely unless we get a major trough aplification. My bar now for my location is an event that ends with more then 6" on the ground. That is not a crazy high expectation for here since on average I get several of those a year even in a mediocre year, but it would be my best storm by far this year. So far I have just been fringed by the southern edge of all the northeast storms, or the northern edge of the mid atlantic clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 lol this place is great. let's jump toward a big storm again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And to think I went to the ledge yesterday after 18z. I'm embarrassed of my own self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 InterestingI'm glad your on our side for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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