Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 With such a major shift north... now do you we worry it will not stop. Got to love the this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GGEM has a further N expansion of the QPF field at 72 compared to 00z at 84... same comparing 12z 78 and 00z 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Same can be said for the 12z/0z euro. If the euro jumps back nw then really nothing can be trusted to the point of making fast decisions. I agree with you about the ensembles jumping with the ops. Sunday is the day of reckoning. This is exactly where we always wanted the GFS to be 4-5 days out, but that is when the other models have a storm. In this case the GFS is well supported from the other globals. I do think in this case they can shift back west easier than in the previous storms where we knew we were finished once they took on the much warmer look. With this one we really are just needing the ever popular 50-100 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 With such a major shift north... now do you we worry it will not stop. Got to love the this winter. I am extremely worried about a west track. Copious precip over a frigid surface scares the hell out of me. I'm in the "if it ain't all snow, then I hope it's as dry as the Mojave" crowd. Proud to be one of their members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 QPF knocking on DC's door at 00z and 03z TUE per 12z GGEM And then we wave goodbye to the first system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 QPF knocking on DC's door at 00z MON lol- looks a bit like last night's ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 With such a major shift north... now do you we worry it will not stop. Got to love the this winter. I see what you're saying...but was it such a major shift really? I mean, the ultimate outcome as shown looks a good bit different. But I thought the subtleties at 500mb, etc., were not anything overly dramatic from the last few cycles overall (but I haven't looked at all the details, to be honest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Snowing on the GFS at day 8/9. We are tracking that, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I see what you're saying...but was it such a major shift really? I mean, the ultimate outcome as shown looks a good bit different. But I thought the subtleties at 500mb, etc., were not anything overly dramatic from the last few cycles overall (but I haven't looked at all the details, to be honest). Yes... the SLP is what 250 miles more northwest than the 6z and 9MB stronger. Unless I am looking at something wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Snowing on the GFS at day 8/9. We are tracking that, right? It's been there in some fashion for a few days now. Close to a lock but should at least wait until Monday before starting a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes... the SLP is what 250 miles more northwest than the 6z and 9MB stronger. Unless I am looking at something wrong. True, but compared to, say, 18Z yesterday it's not all that much different. I think the 06Z was an extreme and probably an outlier, but it didn't take much it seems to change the overall solution either way. Lots of interaction, obviously...things went one direction and at least in the 12Z GFS have apparently started going back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We aren't toast because of a model run, we are toast because the NAO and AO are going to be in the +2.5-3 range during the time of this threat. I was more optimistic about this pattern a week ago when just about all of the guidance suggested the NAO would hang out in the neutral to +1 range. There is a HUGE difference for our storm chances between a neutral NAO/AO and a raging positive one. And there are some really stupid comments going around online right now about what the positive NAO will do even from pro mets. A positive NAO does not mean the storm has to trend north. A very positive NAO will cause the flow to be progressive. It will also mean highs will move out fast. So the thermal boundary will usually be retreating fast as a storm approaches. So basically if a stj system ejects with enough energy it will amplify and cut north until it reaches the deep enough cold to resist, and that will be north of us. If the system comes out without enough energy it will get bullied and squashed by the northern branch. Its a lose lose. Yes it is possible to get a system to come out weak initially, stay under us, then phase and amp at exactly the right time. It has happened, but its VERY rare and not something to hold your breath on or expect. This setup leaves us hoping for a thread the needle storm. I can't believe the crap going around about +NAO means it has to come north. ugh Basically each storm that comes along is a long shot, and we are rolling the dice hoping to roll a 12. If we get several chances in this pattern could we get lucky once...sure, but each individual storm is a long shot. I still think if the NAO wants to stay this positive our best shot is as we get into March and the wavelengths continue to shorten, the combo of the EPO blocking and the positive NAO drops a monster trough down and we end the year with a big bombing storm somewhere in the East. Of course with our luck it will be an apps runner. Outstanding post, very educational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z UKIE looks like a hit at 96... need to see 102-108 though to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 All we really need Is a slightly more amped vort and we are in business. The gfs is very close to a great storm. Regardless. It's not going to be a huge one because there is nothing to slow it down. I still think we all see accumulating snow from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z UKIE at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It is Friday afternoon and this storm is not until Tuesday. We've seen storms come northwest a million times in the last 10+ years, often to screw us. I don't know why anyone is making any definitive statements yet. It could certainly miss us wide right, but I'm not "giving up" until Sunday evening, and probably not even then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z UKIE looks like a hit at 96... need to see 102-108 though to be sure 12zUKIEMSLP96hr2-13-15.gif You can't tell if it's a hit from that map because we can't see how squashed the precipitation field is. edit: by that track after the 120 map. You would think it's a nice hit for us. Let's hope the euro follows along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yoda was GGEM south? My source is late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z UKIE looks like a hit at 96... need to see 102-108 though to be sure 12zUKIEMSLP96hr2-13-15.gif That does look like it would be good. Wasn't the UKIE the first to show the suppressed solution as well? BTW, why does nobody seem to have access to full UKIE data? Seems like someone would have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yoda was GGEM south? My source is late Yes, a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12Z Ukmet looks good. Judging by the ISO Bars this probably heads north east from it's position in western SC to just south of the NC/VA border (estimating). Not a bad track at all. With the GL Low not in the picture the precip should be able to reach pretty far west from the coastal. EDT: Sorry just saw YODA post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think someone hit the weenie button before running the 12z gfs. 2 more snow events before d12. Reminds me a little of last year with no real blocking but the ns/pv forcing storms under us. We got lucky a lot last year. Notsomuch this year but it looks like we will have more chances before the month is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yoda was GGEM south? My source is late You don't need a source. Tropical Tidbits has it. Almost no storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That does look like it would be good. Wasn't the UKIE the first to show the suppressed solution as well? BTW, why does nobody seem to have access to full UKIE data? Seems like someone would have it. Weatherbell does, but it takes a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That does look like it would be good. Wasn't the UKIE the first to show the suppressed solution as well? BTW, why does nobody seem to have access to full UKIE data? Seems like someone would have it. I have detailed 3&6hr panels but they come out late. Like 4pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think someone hit the weenie button before running the 12z gfs. 2 more snow events before d12. Reminds me a little of last year with no real blocking but the ns/pv forcing storms under us. We got lucky a lot last year. Notsomuch this year but it looks like we will have more chances before the month is out. Plus the fact that it moved the precip shield NW by 200 miles from this morning. Only 15 more runs until the storm starts....many more questions than answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I have detailed 3&6hr panels but they come out late. Like 4pm or so. Weatherbell does, but it takes a while Be interesting to see what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It is Friday afternoon and this storm is not until Tuesday. We've seen storms come northwest a million times in the last 10+ years, often to screw us. I don't know why anyone is making any definitive statements yet. It could certainly miss us wide right, but I'm not "giving up" until Sunday evening, and probably not even then. Totally agree. This is going to chagne several times before Sunday. We should not have any confidence in any solution until Sun evening or Monday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think someone hit the weenie button before running the 12z gfs. 2 more snow events before d12. Reminds me a little of last year with no real blocking but the ns/pv forcing storms under us. We got lucky a lot last year. Notsomuch this year but it looks like we will have more chances before the month is out. On March 1st it has the -20C 850 line in Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Totally agree. This is going to chagne several times before Sunday. We should not have any confidence in any solution until Sun evening or Monday am. only in the mid atlantic do we hug models at this range...we have been doing it for years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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