Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS will be an improvement over 6z run...maybe its the start of the Northernly jog....this is going to be a long weekend. My (un?)educated guess is that we don't get whiffed like the 06Z showed, and a smallish 1-3" or maybe 2-4" event is still quite possible. That said, I don't think we see the really good solutions from the other day, unless something else changes fairly radically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Still a chance lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Massive difference in precipitation distribution between 06z and 12z (look at TX). Don't know that it will matter for us, but it is eye-catching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We aren't toast because of a model run, we are toast because the NAO and AO are going to be in the +2.5-3 range during the time of this threat. I was more optimistic about this pattern a week ago when just about all of the guidance suggested the NAO would hang out in the neutral to +1 range. There is a HUGE difference for our storm chances between a neutral NAO/AO and a raging positive one. And there are some really stupid comments going around online right now about what the positive NAO will do even from pro mets. A positive NAO does not mean the storm has to trend north. A very positive NAO will cause the flow to be progressive. It will also mean highs will move out fast. So the thermal boundary will usually be retreating fast as a storm approaches. So basically if a stj system ejects with enough energy it will amplify and cut north until it reaches the deep enough cold to resist, and that will be north of us. If the system comes out without enough energy it will get bullied and squashed by the northern branch. Its a lose lose. Yes it is possible to get a system to come out weak initially, stay under us, then phase and amp at exactly the right time. It has happened, but its VERY rare and not something to hold your breath on or expect. This setup leaves us hoping for a thread the needle storm. I can't believe the crap going around about +NAO means it has to come north. ugh interesting thought, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hard to really give up with a low where it is on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gets light precip in here. It's a definitely step in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Much better than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hard to really give up with a low where it is on this run Much improved h5 across the board compared to 6z. As nor easter posted about the low to the north, it inhibits precip nw of the coastal. But it really is close considering we're days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Basically like the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 nor easter crushing it with his posts the past several days. He actually got me into weatherboards especially after he called the Jan 25,2000 storm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty big difference from 6z. Now we wait for the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yep, much better!! Thank God....lol than 6z you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 looks like it still misses the baja low...the baja low never really gets injected into the picture but its pretty close. If it had more interaction...i bet we would see a stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Basically like the 0z run. The snowfall map is almost dead-on with 18z yesterday, just lighter amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 it really is not far at all from being a decent storm again http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=108ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_108_250_wnd_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=250_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The snowfall map is almost dead-on with 18z yesterday, just lighter amounts. All we can do is hope this is the eastern edge of guidance. I liked seeing heights tick up early on. Less squish in place before the low gets going. We're only talking about 75-100 miles away from a nice storm at 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 it really is not far at all from being a decent storm again http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=108ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_108_250_wnd_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=250_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Still plenty of time to get this thing further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 its already come north after being told it has not chance to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 nor easter crushing it with his posts the past several days. He actually got me into weatherboards especially after he called the Jan 25,2000 storm haha Hahahah you're too kind bro. But yeah, you could def see the improvement coming when looking up in Canada in the 60H range. That's why I wasn't mad at the look 0Z gave us last night. Still evolving. I like this look, has lots of room for improvement with small changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks more like a miller A storm now on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 its already come north after being told it has not chance to come north The vort in the sw didn't dig as far as 6z. Heights in front allowed more amplification as well. It's still dicey as F but were not out of the game yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 its actually the best run since 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The vort in the sw didn't dig as far as 6z. Heights in front allowed more amplification as well. It's still dicey as F but were not out of the game yet. with the storm set to start sometime late Tuesday, i would say between now and Sunday is the window for big changes. I think by Sunday 12z, we will know as it will start to lock some by then. But the differences between 6z and 12z are laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 People are making way too many definitive statements after each model run. I am certainly in the skeptical camp and think this is a long shot, but I certainly would not bet my house on it either way. Of course it has a shot, even if that shot is less then 50/50. Its kinda like if we had a better NAO this would be a 40 yard FG to win the game, and instead its a 55 yard FG with a stiff breeze. But I would be nervous making "No way it comes north" or "its definitely going to come north" type comments. At least the weather has humbled me enough times over the years not to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 with the storm set to start sometime late Tuesday, i would say between now and Sunday is the window for big changes. I think by Sunday 12z, we will know as it will start to lock some by then. But the differences between 6z and 12z are laughable Same can be said for the 12z/0z euro. If the euro jumps back nw then really nothing can be trusted to the point of making fast decisions. I agree with you about the ensembles jumping with the ops. Sunday is the day of reckoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 People are making way too many definitive statements after each model run. I am certainly in the skeptical camp and think this is a long shot, but I certainly would not bet my house on it either way. Of course it has a shot, even if that shot is less then 50/50. Its kinda like if we had a better NAO this would be a 40 yard FG to win the game, and instead its a 55 yard FG with a stiff breeze. But I would be nervous making "No way it comes north" or "its definitely going to come north" type comments. At least the weather has humbled me enough times over the years not to do that. Agreed. It makes sense to be realistic - perhaps even pessimistic - but we're way too far out to be suggesting that we *know* what is going to happen. 48 hours ago there was much more concern about a miss to the north/west, and we are still 4-4.5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There won't be a north shift. LOL............how sure are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 People are making way too many definitive statements after each model run. I am certainly in the skeptical camp and think this is a long shot, but I certainly would not bet my house on it either way. Of course it has a shot, even if that shot is less then 50/50. Its kinda like if we had a better NAO this would be a 40 yard FG to win the game, and instead its a 55 yard FG with a stiff breeze. But I would be nervous making "No way it comes north" or "its definitely going to come north" type comments. At least the weather has humbled me enough times over the years not to do that. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 its actually the best run since 12z yesterday That's not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LOL............how sure are you? LOL. I know you're probably saying that to him to troll as humor. But I wouldn't get too high and base things off seeing one deterministic run that looks a bit better. For all we know, the ensembles and then the Euro could come in looking just as bad as before (hopefully that won't be the case!). (ETA: Besides, why even drag that whole argument from earlier back into the conversation again?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.