mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 But we dont pay any attention to the NAM @84 hours. Its garbage. Except in cases where it shows something promising. then why is it continually referenced?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol. Can this winter get any "better"? yes but i seriously doubt it will, until march when blocking is supposed to appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Probably see a completely new solution in the next few runs. The Tues-Wed impulse will get weaker and more sheared, and a new threat will materialize by the end of next week. Could be rain. 2/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 All my attention is on tomorrow's overperformer. dusting on the eastern shore with whiteouts. I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 00z UKmet is not great but it does give us decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 00z UKmet is not great but it does give us decent snow It focuses completely on the lead vort amplifying. It's an early tuesday morning storm. Precip arrives before midnight monday. Big outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Of course the former. But I'd be equally dubious of someone telling us at this lead time and in this pattern that a big hit was a "lock". You know as well as i do that few things are definitive - especially in the context of the current pattern - 5 days out. I have zero problem with bad news or with forecasts of no snow - but I'm always going to raise an eyebrow at someone telling us they "know" what is going to happen with 100% certainty. And then compounding that questionable approach by getting all chesty about it and bragging about his past predictions. That's just another version of Joe Bastardi. Giving him "credit" for "making a call and sticking with it" is exactly the opposite of what we should be doing. One of the reasons we all love and appreciate Wes so much is because, optimism or pessimism, he is modest and realistic in what he sees. He freely acknowledges the limits of his thinking, and is careful to include disclaimers and to stick to pointing out positive or negative patterns when we are still several days away from an event. You are really blowing this out of proportion! All because you want it to snow and I made a bold statement that it would get suppressed south. I'm not chesty about anything. I'm a humble person and weather prediction is one cause for that. I'm no better than anyone else in the field. I'm telling you the overall progressive pattern doesn't support a storm so why get excited only to be dissapointed later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Of course the former. But I'd be equally dubious of someone telling us at this lead time and in this pattern that a big hit was a "lock". You know as well as i do that few things are definitive - especially in the context of the current pattern - 5 days out. I have zero problem with bad news or with forecasts of no snow - but I'm always going to raise an eyebrow at someone telling us they "know" what is going to happen with 100% certainty. And then compounding that questionable approach by getting all chesty about it and bragging about his past predictions. That's just another version of Joe Bastardi. Giving him "credit" for "making a call and sticking with it" is exactly the opposite of what we should be doing. One of the reasons we all love and appreciate Wes so much is because, optimism or pessimism, he is modest and realistic in what he sees. He freely acknowledges the limits of his thinking, and is careful to include disclaimers and to stick to pointing out positive or negative patterns when we are still several days away from an event. And in addition...I'd better not see this another version of Joe Bastardi nonsense referenced toward me. That's a bold statement and likely one you would only make on here because there is no repercussion for an Internet post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You are really blowing this out of proportion! All because you want it to snow and I made a bold statement that it would get suppressed south. I'm not chesty about anything. I'm a humble person and weather prediction is one cause for that. I'm no better than anyone else in the field. I'm telling you the overall progressive pattern doesn't support a storm so why get excited only to be dissapointed later? good comment and you're right !!jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You really couldn't be more wrong about my motivations. Continue to tell yourself that if it makes you feel better, though. Have a nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You really couldn't be more wrong about my motivations. Continue to tell yourself that if it makes you feel better, though. ers-wxman is far more qualified to make forecasts than the vast majority of us... no need to get snippy if you disagree with the way he's conveying his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You are really blowing this out of proportion! All because you want it to snow and I made a bold statement that it would get suppressed south. I'm not chesty about anything. I'm a humble person and weather prediction is one cause for that. I'm no better than anyone else in the field. I'm telling you the overall progressive pattern doesn't support a storm so why get excited only to be dissapointed later? And in addition...I'd better not see this another version of Joe Bastardi nonsense referenced toward me. That's a bold statement and likely one you would only make on here because there is no repercussion for an Internet post. I totally agree with you and am impressed how ballsy you are predicting this over 4 days out. But i think if you had just said i think this will stay south instead of guaranteeing it and being absolute, no one would be giving you a hard time. As we all know in weather it is basically impossible to be definite this far out. That being said i really appreciate and value your input here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pieces of energy spinning up north around the Eastern Canadian Vortex is adding to the issues. The GFS has been bringing down that vortex further and further south each run since yesterday causing a wider trough vs the sharper trough GFS had yesterday. The Baja energy is now getting left behind in the later runs which is discouraging. I will say that even small changes in the position of the energy spinning around the Vortex can have big implications for raising heights again along the coastline. This is why we see such a big diff from the GEFS vs OP and the UKMET vs GFS. This is still unresolved, fast flow several pieces of energy causing havoc. Looking at the 12Z 60HR so far with the energy in Canada it looks better than 6Z for sure. Coming into the U.S further west with a more "diggy" look. Should have positive effects downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hmm, it looks like a bit too much banter to me for a model discussion. Let's stick to the models and what we know (don't know). Oh, and ia it time to start a new thread? (50 pages and counting). Maybe with all the banter, this would be a good time to lock this one down and start another one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I totally agree with you and am impressed how ballsy you are predicting this over 4 days out. But i think if you had just said i think this will stay south instead of guaranteeing it and being absolute, no one would be giving you a hard time. As we all know in weather it is basically impossible to be definite this far out. That being said i really appreciate and value your input here. Thanks. I appreciate it. I will also try in the future to tone down my language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS isn't going to get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hmm, it looks like a bit too much banter to me for a model discussion. Let's stick to the models and what we know (don't know). Oh, and ia it time to start a new thread? (50 pages and counting). Maybe with all the banter, this would be a good time to lock this one down and start another one.. Agreed and if one of the mods can move all the posts to the banter thread that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Come on folks..if you see posts disappearing, you should probably move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like too much of a good thing on the GFS....lot of cold, pressing....ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 My question is would there be a better chance for a system days away to trend one way based on its previous runs (south) or more like the direction of this season's trends (north)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS isn't going to get it done are you that far out on GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like too much of a good thing on the GFS....lot of cold, pressing....ugh. Heights ticked a good bit higher in the east. Vort looks better. Good trend even if the end results suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS isn't going to get it done lets see how the baja low interacts with nice piece of energy diving in for wave 2. Wave 1 is Dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS will be an improvement over 6z run...maybe its the start of the Northernly jog....this is going to be a long weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This winter, once one model has a big shift they all follow suit. I knew yesterday after the 18Z GFS we were toast. We aren't toast because of a model run, we are toast because the NAO and AO are going to be in the +2.5-3 range during the time of this threat. I was more optimistic about this pattern a week ago when just about all of the guidance suggested the NAO would hang out in the neutral to +1 range. There is a HUGE difference for our storm chances between a neutral NAO/AO and a raging positive one. And there are some really stupid comments going around online right now about what the positive NAO will do even from pro mets. A positive NAO does not mean the storm has to trend north. A very positive NAO will cause the flow to be progressive. It will also mean highs will move out fast. So the thermal boundary will usually be retreating fast as a storm approaches. So basically if a stj system ejects with enough energy it will amplify and cut north until it reaches the deep enough cold to resist, and that will be north of us. If the system comes out without enough energy it will get bullied and squashed by the northern branch. Its a lose lose. Yes it is possible to get a system to come out weak initially, stay under us, then phase and amp at exactly the right time. It has happened, but its VERY rare and not something to hold your breath on or expect. This setup leaves us hoping for a thread the needle storm. I can't believe the crap going around about +NAO means it has to come north. ugh Basically each storm that comes along is a long shot, and we are rolling the dice hoping to roll a 12. If we get several chances in this pattern could we get lucky once...sure, but each individual storm is a long shot. I still think if the NAO wants to stay this positive our best shot is as we get into March and the wavelengths continue to shorten, the combo of the EPO blocking and the positive NAO drops a monster trough down and we end the year with a big bombing storm somewhere in the East. Of course with our luck it will be an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This should be better than 6z but then again, it cant be worse than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It does look like it will be a little better than 6z....maybe the turn around begins with this suite..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is a great run in my opinion for this time frame....we are in a good place right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This run is actually a positive step...we just need some small changes to get the precip up here. Sharpen that trof and we're in business....4 days out...we can do it folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Its trying at 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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