ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Our pattern of the year was the pre thanksgiving storm lol...and the surprise clipper burst of early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol... I'm gladWhere's your red tag from again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Where's your red tag from again? What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Where's your red tag from again? He's a NWS met, UVV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol...I'm gonna give you respect but I must say...your posts give me a chuckle...and not just the ones in this thread...The anti-JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's been a long time since a modeled storm 5 days out, turned out exactly as prog'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I believe when this storm first showed up in the long range on the GFS, it was suppressed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I will just say this...ever since I have been on the boards those who speak in absolutes tend to go down in flames at a very high rate...I think this year especially that is true. Your line in the sand is now...it won't shift north...will be interesting to see. Good luck with your forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Where's your red tag from again? 15 years, 5 field offices, private sector plus university work from suny stony brook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I will just say this...ever since I have been on the boards those who speak in absolutes tend to go down in flames at a very high rate...I think this year especially that is true. Your line in the sand is now...it won't shift north...will be interesting to see. Good luck with your forecast I remember saying the same on the last Mid range bust that it wouldn't shift south. I was questioned on that statement. If anything it went further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm worried this is gonna be west and warm. For those wanting it to get south of us....mission accomplished, you have no worries. Better than cold rain. I know you agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I remember saying the same on the last Mid range bust that it wouldn't shift south. I was questioned on that statement. If anything it went further north. maybe LWX should have you make all the forecasts and snow maps since you seem to know whats up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I will just say this...ever since I have been on the boards those who speak in absolutes tend to go down in flames at a very high rate...I think this year especially that is true. Your line in the sand is now...it won't shift north...will be interesting to see. Good luck with your forecast I take pride that I'm not on here going... Alert...Alert...Alert Hecs day 4 here it comes. Then to shift back to reality then blast anyone that questions me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I remember saying the same on the last Mid range bust that it wouldn't shift south. I was questioned on that statement. If anything it went further north. I think it's all fun...the weather does what it wants....just some friendly banter...next week will be fun to check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well if its any consolation, even the local discussion says low confidence in the forecast for Tuesday. This one has lots of room for change IMHO. We all know a bullseye right now in this type of situation sucks. I want that on Sunday, not Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Models are now sampling reality based on the pattern. I'm sure you'll end up being correct, but that's awfully definitive for a met who should know better than to make those kind of definitive calls at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I enjoy this forum. It's fun. Enjoy all of you. If I didnt I wouldn't be on here. It takes the politics out of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm sure you'll end up being correct, but that's awfully definitive for a met who should know better than to make those kind of definitive calls at this lead time.[/quote I should know better? How would you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Compare yesterdays 12z run to this morning 6z. Models getting a better handle on the strength/position of the vortex, trough and the western ridge. One would think as we get closer to the event, this would be a more accurate depiction of what will actually occur. If so, this storm is likely going to track off the coast south of where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 15 years, 5 field offices, private sector plus university work from suny stony brook.Those are great, admire the work and congratulate you. You might be right but formulating your statements in that absolute fashion make me expect it to be Ji posting then I see its you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Those are great, admire the work and congratulate you. You might be right but formulating your statements in that absolute fashion make me expect it to be Ji posting then I see its you. See what happens Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Copy my statements into a file then repost next week. If I'm wrong I will come on and publicly apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hour 78 on the 6Z GFS shows snow entering sw VA then it gets squashed only to try to come around the bend a few frames later but ends up falling short. Just seems that once a storm gets relatively close as shown at hour 78, it ends up reaching us in some manner. But on the other hand, the last 4 or so runs definitely has that suppressed look. It will be interesting to see how this ends up. Is the cold overstated? Sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 See what happens Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Copy my statements into a file then repost next week. If I'm wrong I will come on and publicly apologize. You don't have to apologize for a forecast bust if it happens. I think most of us respect the fact that you're making a forecast 4+ days out and that you're not going to waffle every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What he didn't tell you was that all that experience at those places was as a janitor. Lol...I'm paid awfully well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eh, I appreciate the call ers is making. That's is what they are supposed to do. His is one opinion among many there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eh, I appreciate the call ers is making. That's is what they are supposed to do. His is one opinion among many there. Agree. That is refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I enjoy this forum. It's fun. Enjoy all of you. If I didnt I wouldn't be on here. It takes the politics out of weather. Thanks for all you do for this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eh, I appreciate the call ers is making. That's is what they are supposed to do. His is one opinion among many there. I dont know what the big deal is. He is stating what he thinks will happen. He will either be right or wrong. At least he does have some credentials. Weenies be all cranky this morning with the latest trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Do you want someone who will tell you the truth? Or do you want joe bastardi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks for all you do for this forum Glad to be on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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