ezweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Heck I was saying wait and see till Sunday and what we have at the moment is nothing with what the 6z GFS showed. Wow.. Anyway, let's see what the 12z model guidance shows and see whats what, but wow, from the 18z GFS to this, you have got to be kidding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow. It's just a completely different storm then it was 24 hours ago on the models. I imposed an inside 72 hour rule on myself a few weeks ago. It has saved me buckets of heartbreak this past month. I never get emotionally invested anymore. And esp not this winter. I track it, and if we get close and it looks like a high probability, it becomes more than just something in the back of my mind. Otherwise I got other stuff to do. I haven't stayed up for a 0z suite of runs for over a month. I sleep really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I never get emotionally invested anymore. And esp not this winter. I track it, and if we get close and it looks like a high probability, it becomes more than just something in the back of my mind. Otherwise I got other stuff to do. I haven't stayed up for a 0z suite of runs for over a month. I sleep really well. Well, I'm on my last night shift for a long time. I rarely get into posting every model run. I'm all about trends and wait and watch. Will be in bed very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At least in 93-94 we got sleet. This winter is so exciting - we get a lot of heavy rain at 32 degrees - so much more satisfying than sleet Poor west coast, that damned ridge thats gonna freeze us to death, is keeping them so dry. I shudder when I think about the summer of 2015 in the west. Forest fires are gonna rage and reservoirs are gonna go bone dry. Then the mad max water wars will start lol. Imagine water selling like gas out west. Thats whats gonna happen if they dont get rain soon fire season will start early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, I'm on my last night shift for a long time. I rarely get into posting every model run. I'm all about trends and wait and watch. Will be in bed very soon. maybe this is the trend south now,this is the time period for it to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Every single storm has come north this year and the cold air has never been as strong as modeled. I would be shocked if this did not come back north. Last words nah think this is the new trend south, north has already happened time for south to get bombed!! forget the mid atlantic not our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mount Holly AFD...good points THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND. NOTED THAT THE CAN GGEM AND ECMWF HAVE GONE SOUTH. BUT WE HAVE SEEN RUNS WHERE THE MODELS HAVE DONE THIS 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT ONLY TO RETURN TO THE ORIGINAL PLAN. ALSO ACROSS THE BOARD MODEL VERIFICATION STATS FOR THIS WINTER VS THE FISHING IN THE BARREL WINTER OF 2009-10 ARE DOWN (ANOMALY CORRELATIONS FOR ALL OF THEM) AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. ONLY CHANGES WE MADE SINCE THIS WAS A TREND WITH EARLIER RUNS WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND MAKE IT "SNOWIER" GIVEN A NOD TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. It's interesting to see them hold their forecasts based on seasonal trends and LWX swing theirs wildly with the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z and 06z GFS are close to a nice snowstorm for the 23rd/24th...0z GFS gave us 14-15" of digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I actually like where we sit right now in regards to what has happened this winter. yea 6z was sheared and was not what I wanted to see, but I would rather have it there then trending north with every run up to Northwest PA. Lets wait and see what happens today. Remember last week the models right up until the storm kept taking it north until DC ended up hitting 68 Sunday and tying a high record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mount Holly AFD...good points THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND. NOTED THAT THE CAN GGEM AND ECMWF HAVE GONE SOUTH. BUT WE HAVE SEEN RUNS WHERE THE MODELS HAVE DONE THIS 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT ONLY TO RETURN TO THE ORIGINAL PLAN. ALSO ACROSS THE BOARD MODEL VERIFICATION STATS FOR THIS WINTER VS THE FISHING IN THE BARREL WINTER OF 2009-10 ARE DOWN (ANOMALY CORRELATIONS FOR ALL OF THEM) AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. ONLY CHANGES WE MADE SINCE THIS WAS A TREND WITH EARLIER RUNS WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND MAKE IT "SNOWIER" GIVEN A NOD TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. Since when did mount holly get Justin Berk to write there afd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 nothing has changed to my belief to comes north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z and 06z GFS are close to a nice snowstorm for the 23rd/24th...0z GFS gave us 14-15" of digital snow. I thought you lost a bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm worried this is gonna be west and warm. For those wanting it to get south of us....mission accomplished, you have no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Surprisingly, gfs ens members still show several nice storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I actually like where we sit right now in regards to what has happened this winter. yea 6z was sheared and was not what I wanted to see, but I would rather have it there then trending north with every run up to Northwest PA. Lets wait and see what happens today. Remember last week the models right up until the storm kept taking it north until DC ended up hitting 68 Sunday and tying a high record. Different situation though. There is likely to be a monster buzz saw NE of Maine looking to rip this apart like cardboard. The south vort looks like cardboard..weak and flimsy...if it moved away some maybe...but I am not in a position to argue with any experts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Every single storm has come north this year and the cold air has never been as strong as modeled. I would be shocked if this did not come back north. Last words This will be the one time that a north shift does not occur. Winter 2015 can't get over soon enough. I would much rather have a 2002-type winter where it's mild throughout than repeated shots of bitter cold with no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am all in on a shift back north, but I also have to say I would not care at this point what happens. A southern storm with snow that misses us SE would be hilarious to me in this winter, so I'm trying to see it as a win win situation haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 glimmer of reason to step back from ledge..or go to a higher floor THE FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING WINTER WEATHER POTENTIALFROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE EAST MON-WED. LATEST TRENDSTOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED SFC SYSTEM WOULD LIMIT THE NWD/NWWDEXTENT OF PCPN VERSUS PRIOR CONSENSUS. SOURCES OF UPR SUPPORT FORTHIS SYSTEM SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST SUN TO GAIN DECENTCONFIDENCE IN REFINING PCPN TYPES AND DURATION/INTENSITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 glimmer of reason to step back from ledge..or go to a higher floor THE FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE EAST MON-WED. LATEST TRENDS TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED SFC SYSTEM WOULD LIMIT THE NWD/NWWD EXTENT OF PCPN VERSUS PRIOR CONSENSUS. SOURCES OF UPR SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST SUN TO GAIN DECENT CONFIDENCE IN REFINING PCPN TYPES AND DURATION/INTENSITY. what's a met educated forecast?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I fully expect this to start coming back North but only so ....my reasoning is seasonal trend plus I think the models are seeing way too much cold...yeesh it has Boston at -14 next week at 2m. That moderates and she lifts north a bit...I certainly can see a radar similar to that rain mess a few weeks ago with that super sharp cutoff to the west....but you knew I would talk fringe at some part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There won't be a north shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There won't be a north shift. why?? i wouldn't be surprised!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 why?? I described in detail in previous posts last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 glimmer of reason to step back from ledge..or go to a higher floor THE FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE EAST MON-WED. LATEST TRENDS TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED SFC SYSTEM WOULD LIMIT THE NWD/NWWD EXTENT OF PCPN VERSUS PRIOR CONSENSUS. SOURCES OF UPR SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST SUN TO GAIN DECENT CONFIDENCE IN REFINING PCPN TYPES AND DURATION/INTENSITY. We did have a system suppressed and sheared to nothing earlier in the season. I thing the precipitation field could come north some, but I think the distance has become too great to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I described in detail in previous posts last night. oh well i didn't see them thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Models are now sampling reality based on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Models are now sampling reality based on the pattern. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There won't be a north shift. Lol...I'm gonna give you respect but I must say...your posts give me a chuckle...and not just the ones in this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This winter has been a great example of what it's like around here (normally) w/o blocking. Cold and dry...warm and wet. My goodness, if this doesn't remind me of the 1984-85 and '85-'86 winters. If that storm were to come north, it would probably come too far inland. Even the system being modeled next Sunday (2/25) has some red flags, given the NAO outlook. Though you would think we'd get lucky, even w/o blocking, with a temporary, transitory upper confluence zone and surface HP to our north just as the right time. But that takes a lot of luck, like kicking a 50 yard field goal with a 30-40 mph head or cross wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol...I'm gonna give you respect but I must say...your posts give me a chuckle...and not just the ones in this thread... Lol... I'm glad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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