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Mid FEB through March Threats/Snow Storms


mitchnick

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Jb was talking about a triple phase 3 hours ago

 

 

Wow.. I mean, he's saying that and then you see this run. For one time and one time, can we just have the models show a big storm, but its not that, but can the pattern make it possible.  Just have to see how things trend over the weekend and can't panic on this run.  

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Bull****e. Raleigh is getting snow. This has nothing to do with positive ao or nao

Good blocking near Greenland doesn't just hold in the high pressure it also promotes the jet to buckle under it and storms to amp. So you get a storm track forcing systems to intensify then ram up into high pressure. That's a win. Pos nao means the flow is progressive usually plus no way to lock a high in. So if the storm intensifies it cuts and if it's weak it gets pushed along by the flow and squashed. That sound familiar...
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Good blocking near Greenland doesn't just hold in the high pressure it also promotes the jet to buckle under it and storms to amp. So you get a storm track forcing systems to intensify then ram up into high pressure. That's a win. Pos nao means the flow is progressive usually plus no way to lock a high in. So if the storm intensifies it cuts and if it's weak it gets pushed along by the flow and squashed. That sound familiar...

this is now becoming a long winter with very little snow, Just like 93-94.

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this is now becoming a long winter with very little snow, Just like 93-94.

At least in 93-94 we got sleet. This winter is so exciting - we get a lot of heavy rain at 32 degrees - so much more satisfying than sleet

 

Poor west coast, that damned ridge thats gonna freeze us to death, is keeping them so dry. I shudder when I think about the summer of 2015 in the west. Forest fires are gonna rage and reservoirs are gonna go bone dry. Then the mad max water wars will start lol. Imagine water selling like gas out west. Thats whats gonna happen if they dont get rain soon

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Mount Holly AFD...good points

 

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. WPC/CONTINUITY
BLEND. NOTED THAT THE CAN GGEM AND ECMWF HAVE GONE SOUTH. BUT WE
HAVE SEEN RUNS WHERE THE MODELS HAVE DONE THIS 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT
ONLY TO RETURN TO THE ORIGINAL PLAN. ALSO ACROSS THE BOARD MODEL
VERIFICATION STATS FOR THIS WINTER VS THE FISHING IN THE BARREL
WINTER OF 2009-10 ARE DOWN (ANOMALY CORRELATIONS FOR ALL OF THEM)
AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. ONLY CHANGES WE MADE SINCE THIS WAS A
TREND WITH EARLIER RUNS WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND MAKE
IT "SNOWIER" GIVEN A NOD TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. 

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