yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Someone have 96-120 for EURO? 120 looks pretty good with a 1006mb SLP east of the VA/NC border by ~200 miles or so 850s are fine at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 all 72 of us waiting on the Euro...lol forget it suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro says no storm east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Since when does 1006 look good off any coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Since when does 1006 look good off any coast? I was grasping for anythng lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Annnnnd wide right. That's all folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I just don't get it. The euro ensembles seem worthless. 40 members were a big hit at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At 126 the low is probably a good 200 miles (at least) East of where it was at 138.......writing is on the wall. Spring here yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The drastic changes we've seen this year within 24 hour periods have been unbelievable. One extreme to another like it's nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not every day the state of Tennessee is the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We could have a week that averages 20 degrees below average and only get 1 inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We could have a week that averages 20 degrees below average and only get 1 inch of snow.I am hanging tough until the ensembles bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The euro last night gave me 2 inches of qof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am hanging tough until the ensembles bail. What I've noticed this year is that when the first model sniffs something out they all agree immediately. One extreme shift then they all instantly agree. Nonetheless have stay in there until the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We didn't even make it to day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We could have a week that averages 20 degrees below average and only get 1 inch of snow. I'd rather have 80 degrees in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What I've noticed this year is that when the first model sniffs something out they all agree immediately. One extreme shift then they all instantly agree. Nonetheless have stay in there until the weekend.You are correct. I don't think I have ever seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The euro has been dismal this year. I've never seen it jump like this so close to the event. From 8 inches to zero??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jb was talking about a triple phase 3 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just an awful run of the Euro. Just looking at the rest of the run and it doesn't show a whole lot, but dry and cold. Not a whole lot to say on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jb was talking about a triple phase 3 hours ago Wow.. I mean, he's saying that and then you see this run. For one time and one time, can we just have the models show a big storm, but its not that, but can the pattern make it possible. Just have to see how things trend over the weekend and can't panic on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bull****e. Raleigh is getting snow. This has nothing to do with positive ao or naoGood blocking near Greenland doesn't just hold in the high pressure it also promotes the jet to buckle under it and storms to amp. So you get a storm track forcing systems to intensify then ram up into high pressure. That's a win. Pos nao means the flow is progressive usually plus no way to lock a high in. So if the storm intensifies it cuts and if it's weak it gets pushed along by the flow and squashed. That sound familiar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 06z run suppression city, wow not even close!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Good blocking near Greenland doesn't just hold in the high pressure it also promotes the jet to buckle under it and storms to amp. So you get a storm track forcing systems to intensify then ram up into high pressure. That's a win. Pos nao means the flow is progressive usually plus no way to lock a high in. So if the storm intensifies it cuts and if it's weak it gets pushed along by the flow and squashed. That sound familiar... this is now becoming a long winter with very little snow, Just like 93-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 06z run suppression city, wow not even close!! Wow. It's practically gone. Curtain call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 this is now becoming a long winter with very little snow, Just like 93-94. At least in 93-94 we got sleet. This winter is so exciting - we get a lot of heavy rain at 32 degrees - so much more satisfying than sleet Poor west coast, that damned ridge thats gonna freeze us to death, is keeping them so dry. I shudder when I think about the summer of 2015 in the west. Forest fires are gonna rage and reservoirs are gonna go bone dry. Then the mad max water wars will start lol. Imagine water selling like gas out west. Thats whats gonna happen if they dont get rain soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It may come back. Ens still look decent and none of the op models have been very good this winter. The one weird thing is in all their inconsistency once one of them locks onto a trend, they seem to all follow and it usually verifies(in a bad way for us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mount Holly AFD...good points THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. WPC/CONTINUITYBLEND. NOTED THAT THE CAN GGEM AND ECMWF HAVE GONE SOUTH. BUT WEHAVE SEEN RUNS WHERE THE MODELS HAVE DONE THIS 4 TO 5 DAYS OUTONLY TO RETURN TO THE ORIGINAL PLAN. ALSO ACROSS THE BOARD MODELVERIFICATION STATS FOR THIS WINTER VS THE FISHING IN THE BARRELWINTER OF 2009-10 ARE DOWN (ANOMALY CORRELATIONS FOR ALL OF THEM)AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. ONLY CHANGES WE MADE SINCE THIS WAS ATREND WITH EARLIER RUNS WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND MAKEIT "SNOWIER" GIVEN A NOD TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Every single storm has come north this year and the cold air has never been as strong as modeled. I would be shocked if this did not come back north. Last words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow. It's just a completely different storm then it was 24 hours ago on the models. I imposed an inside 72 hour rule on myself a few weeks ago. It has saved me buckets of heartbreak this past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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