84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This thing can still amp to hit SNE I'm sure. I really wouldn't be surprised to see it end up a miller b. They would get hit if it was a Miller C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 explain? Jiust posted 96 and 120 map above... 96 has a1008mb SLP S TN...120 its going up the EC... so I am guessing its a transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I agree, I think this is an over corrective move by some of the models, you just don't see winter storms into central Georgia and Alabama in neutral ENSO winters with no blocking, never ever happens I understand what you're saying but this preceding arctic blast is not your typical mid February air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Will he buy the euro and all the 12z guidance tomorrow? You seem invested in this being a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 One year ago tonight I was deployed for Wx support for the pre valentines storm. Dumped 18" on me in 12 hours in Reisterstown. Great storm. Everything went our way last winter. This year we can't milk a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Dunno I was championing the keep faith crew a week ago but this pattern right now really bugs me. I didn't incision the Atlantic going back to such an awful state. Even just neutral would be fine. I'm still not throwing in the towel on the season. I think the threat still exists for a storm if we get any nao help or if a trough digs and we get a major amplification. This storm threat seems like fools gold to me though. The flow looks so crappy because of the season we've had, I think we're all looking for reasons for it to fail, and we still have almost 5 days to come up with more creative failure scenarios I'm going to bed because I know I've got a string of these kinds of evenings to come lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This thing can still amp to hit SNE I'm sure. I really wouldn't be surprised to see it end up a miller b. It's a tough one to pin down. Even if the far south track is overdone it doesn't mean we get a nice hit of precip. It's becoming more complicated as we move forward. You know how much confidence I have in complicated setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Next weeks storm still looks reasonable for the MA. Its not going to be a lakes cutter, the trough is neutral tilt thru the center of the US, and isn't there a typical "have the storm then lose the storm" behavior by at least the GFS at this range...and being as suppressed as GFS is showing on 00Z looks overdone. After the next two new england blizzards we should have a better handle on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jiust posted 96 and 120 map above... 96 has a1008mb SLP S TN...120 its going up the EC... so I am guessing its a transfer oh, thanks.....looks fine to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You seem invested in this being a miss Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Will he buy the euro and all the 12z guidance tomorrow?He humps the Euro like a rabid dog, so I'm sure he will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 He humps the Euro like a rabid dog, so I'm sure he will. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like GEFS ensembles were better and not as suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bob chill said 40 of 50 eps members looked good. If euro shows like gfs and ggem....ensembles are useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Dunno I was championing the keep faith crew a week ago but this pattern right now really bugs me. I didn't incision the Atlantic going back to such an awful state. Even just neutral would be fine. I'm still not throwing in the towel on the season. I think the threat still exists for a storm if we get any nao help or if a trough digs and we get a major amplification. This storm threat seems like fools gold to me though. The flow looks so crappy Frustrating. It definitely looked like we be closer to neutral a week ago. Neutral probably would have worked. Too much negative could easily mean suppression. The AO in my opinion is equally killing us for snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Frustrating. It definitely looked like we be closer to neutral a week ago. Neutral probably would have worked. Too much negative could easily mean suppression. The AO in my opinion is equally killing us for snow chances. Bull****e. Raleigh is getting snow. This has nothing to do with positive ao or nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bull****e. Raleigh is getting snow. This has nothing to do with positive ao or nao It's luck of the draw at this point. The storm is happening. That's a lock. Winners and losers tbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEFS looks better than the OP.... a lot better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bull****e. Raleigh is getting snow. This has nothing to do with positive ao or nao It snows in Raleigh. Not sure why that's so surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bull****e. Raleigh is getting snow. This has nothing to do with positive ao or nao If it snows in Raleigh and not here it's just dumb luck for them and bad luck for us. My post was less about this upcoming storm and more about the overall winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Still have the 240 hecs for one more run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gefs snowfall maps look pretry good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gefs snowfall maps look pretry good!Yea looks like the mean gives us 4-5". Much better than I expected. If the Euro can hold all will be well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So...there still is a quite a bit of uncertainty to the strength and track (and speed) of a potentially sub 875 blizzard for the NE that will probably bottom out at 860 at a minimum before hitting Canada....and will have a huge impact as it retros into Canada. Until that happens....? There can't be much confidence, right? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z Canadian looks great as well for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z Canadian looks great as well for uslol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z Canadian looks great as well for usIf we moved to raleigh durham then yes it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z Canadian looks great as well for us It was a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It was a missmaybe he meant ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sorry I meant the 0z Canadian ensemble . It was north of the operational run just like the GEFS. DT at Wxrisk said to ignore the latest operational runs as ensembles are more accurate at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.