clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Grab a drink and take a deep breath. haha. Way ahead of you on the drink part. I gotta stop looking at maps on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKIe is in eastern TN at 96.... Looks like it takes a nice track off ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKIe is in eastern TN at 96.... Looks like it takes a nice track off ORF it ain't gunna like the music down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKIe is in eastern TN at 96.... Looks like it takes a nice track off ORF It's origin, now this track. Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GGEM is way south. Clkskins was right after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is going in the right direction given the pattern to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GGEM is not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CMC has a 1010 low over New Orleans at 96, precip streaming all the way to sw Va. Seems to be a lot of timing discrepancies btw the models at the moment. EDIT: wide right, RDU crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Expect the ECMWF to follow suite and shift south and east on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Expect the ECMWF to follow suite and shift south and east on the 00z run. Why do you say that?. The Ukie just went north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Can it all shift back to the North and Northwest? Sure, but this type of progressive pattern with no blocking or phasing doesn't lend toward a significant system for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS offers a photocopy threat around day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Why do you say that?. The Ukie just went north. Pattern doesn't support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pattern doesn't support this. Got it, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 don't let JI look at days 10-11 don't do it JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is going in the right direction given the pattern to work with.Isn't the problem that this really has no good option. If it came out more amped and phased it would have cut to our west. If it comes out weaker and misses that boat then it's going to get bullied and pushed off by the progressive northern stream. I don't really see much chsnce for the perfect in between option. Other then getting very lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS offers a photocopy threat around day 10 I don't even think i want it. I cannot handle 10 days of no sleep for a total of 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Isn't the problem that this really has no good option. If it came out more amped and phased it would have cut to our west. If it comes out weaker and misses that boat then it's going to get bullied and pushed off by the progressive northern stream. I don't really see much chsnce for the perfect in between option. Other then getting very lucky.amped and west way better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DT saying he does not buy the CMC or GFS and that no low is staying suppressed on the East Coast this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DT saying he does not buy the CMC or GFS and that no low is staying suppressed on the East Coast this winter. This winter as in the last 3 weeks? Meteorologically unpossible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 DT saying he does not buy the CMC or GFS and that no low is staying suppressed on the East Coast this winter. aGree 1090% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DT saying he does not buy the CMC or GFS and that no low is staying suppressed on the East Coast this winter. DT has an excellent track record so you should feel much better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DT saying he does not buy the CMC or GFS and that no low is staying suppressed on the East Coast this winter. I agree, I think this is an over corrective move by some of the models, you just don't see winter storms into central Georgia and Alabama in neutral ENSO winters with no blocking, never ever happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This thing can still amp to hit SNE I'm sure. I really wouldn't be surprised to see it end up a miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DT saying he does not buy the CMC or GFS and that no low is staying suppressed on the East Coast this winter. Will he buy the euro and all the 12z guidance tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like the UKIE tonight does a hand off looking at 96 and 120 96 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DT saying he does not buy the CMC or GFS and that no low is staying suppressed on the East Coast this winter. After the 18z run JB posted that the GFS should correct west, but that can be expected from him. The problem with this event is that we are all so invested and have been for several days that it's easy to lose focus on just how far out this storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 This thing can still amp to hit SNE I'm sure. I really wouldn't be surprised to see it end up a miller b. well, the first impulse leaves a boundary down to our south, and I think that would help us some even if it was a Miller B by focusing lift, etc. to our south that would move through us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like the UKIE tonight does a hand off explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 aGree 1090%Dunno I was championing the keep faith crew a week ago but this pattern right now really bugs me. I didn't incision the Atlantic going back to such an awful state. Even just neutral would be fine. I'm still not throwing in the towel on the season. I think the threat still exists for a storm if we get any nao help or if a trough digs and we get a major amplification. This storm threat seems like fools gold to me though. The flow looks so crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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