84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like that this keeps evolving a little differently each time and still nearly gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The run to run changes at 500 mb are pretty substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ripping as in heavy snow, which we get none of. And I'd take 2-4" any day. I hear you, but it's not like they are getting any great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like that this keeps evolving a little differently each time and still nearly gets here Ahhh. The Optimism in such a Pessimistic winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The run to run changes at 500 mb are pretty substantial.Seems the northern stream is becoming more and more of a player as we close.. Not too shocking given this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's pretty terrible for those of us nw. But I still think this is the best chance of the winter. It's not a miller b screw job, there is plenty of cold and the 500 track is good. Plenty of time for this to work out for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The lack of any kind of consistency at 500 mb just leaves me in the we won't know for several days camp at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 this run keeps things interesting for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is evolving into a straight up coastal vs a strung out wave of LP riding the front out to sea. 500mb is actually closer than many would think. Northern S/W comes screaming in and almost turns it up. Initial slug of moisture stays south but the coastal really bombs out in response to the 500mb. The GL is absorbed and the precip shield is allowed to extend farther west into the Cold Sector...IMO it's not a bad look IF the evolution continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The shortwave is extremely weak. That's the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Seems the northern stream is becoming more and more of a player as we close.. Not too shocking given this year. which continues to lead me to believe it's coming further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 this run keeps things interesting for another day. So we can see if Cuba get snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow. 850 line down to lake Okeechobee next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It is very close to my old eyes. LP developing in the GOM and gradually works its way up the coast. It's a near miss and it appears that the bad trend has abated. That's the best news coming out of this run. Wouldn't be surprised if the EURO clobbers us tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know it looked better than 18z in some ways, but only on the back, and therefore less reliable, end. On the front end, it was more suppressed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's a completely different storm than what was modeled 24 hours ago. Much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The shortwave is extremely weak. That's the problem think we need to hope the model is overdoing the amount of cold air in place to begin with. it's not often we get overrunning at those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So we can see if Cuba get snow? i have my doubts about things being that suppressed in mid february, but who knows. i'm still in until i start seeing the pro's bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 which continues to lead me to believe it's coming further northMaybe. The sfc is fine from here as far as I'm concerned but it might just be evolving still. If N stream keeps it up we might end up with another Miller B. Even if not it sort of has the look of a bad miller A that still acts more like a miller b by not doing much till it's past us. Obviously if we had better luck thru now many of us would feel better with how it is as is... Bailing because of GFS two runs isn't wise at this point but that sinking feeling is growing in my gut watching how it has changed at 500 alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's a completely different storm than what was modeled 24 hours ago. Much weaker Don't disappoint those dedicated Loudoun teachers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Charlie Brown once again??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Charlie Brown once again??? Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Cmc is almost identical to the GFS. A little larger precipitation field. Uh oh that is not a good sign. I will get nervous if the Ukie/Euro pull the rug tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Atlanta gets an HECS from a clipper. So that's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sorry guys. I was looking at the wrong thing. It was the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Ukie is north so far at 96 hours the low is in N Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Uh oh that is not a good sign. I will get nervous if the Ukie/Euro pull the rug tonight. see my post above. My fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 see my post above. My fault.how did one gfs have a larger precip field than the same gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 see my post above. My fault. Oh see it now. At least the Ukie looks like it is coming north. If the GGEM and Euro hold i will not be nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 see my post above. My fault. Grab a drink and take a deep breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.